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Davit's Confluence Trading

  • #41
  • Oct 26, 2012 11:31am Oct 26, 2012 11:31am
Quoting 919gilead
... I did not consider the other pairs you mentioned because I use proximity of price to the 72MA on H1 & 200MA on M15 to determine pairs of interest and then watch the CSM (currency strength meter) for confirmation. ...
That's very interesting. How did you decide upon a 72 MA to use on the hourly chart? Is that simple moving averages you're using?

I occasionally use 14/40 exponential moving averages, taking crossover as reversal confirmations. When a candle touches the upper line for bear trends or the lower line for bull trends, that usually a good place to take a position when you've missed out on a move already in play. I learned it for stocks but it works for Forex as well.
You can always make money tomorrow provided you don't lose it today.
  • #42
  • Oct 26, 2012 1:54pm Oct 26, 2012 1:54pm
Quoting KADC
That's very interesting. How did you decide upon a 72 MA to use on the hourly chart? Is that simple moving averages you're using?

I occasionally use 14/40 exponential moving averages, taking crossover as reversal confirmations. When a candle touches the upper line for bear trends or the lower line for bull trends, that usually a good place to take a position when you've missed out on a move already in play. I learned it for stocks but it works for Forex as well.
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=383941
Hi Kadc
Link above where I post often.I use that system with modified 50EMA instead of 72EMA and floating S/R 200EMA
Idea is basically buying or selling on pullbacks towards main trend.I use the underlining concept which is universal.Price travels in zig zag motion.
I use Fibs retrace a lot.
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #43
  • Oct 26, 2012 2:00pm Oct 26, 2012 2:00pm
Quoting 919gilead
I am looking at 2 scenarios in Aussie for the next session:

1. Sell break of 1.0331 with stop at 1.0367. 1st take profit at 1.0269 if 1.0300 is easily broken, and 2nd take profit at 1.0234 (the low from Oct 23, shown on the H1 chart)

2. The 2nd option is to reverse option 1 should price bounce off the 72MA and buy at 1.0367 with 1.0331 as stop loss and target retest of the prior high at 1.0410 and if price continues higher, I will switch to the H4 TF to look for the next supply level as possible target.

My personal thoughts and trading plan for...
I suggest you change to regular candles so you can see Price action better.Lot of information gets lost on H candles since Heiken ashi uses average of H/L not actual.
If you have not studied Japanese Candle formations I suggest you do because it is vital you understand them.
I am including a PDF for you
Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf CANDLESTICK PATTERNS.pdf   498 KB | 1,299 downloads
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #44
  • Oct 26, 2012 2:05pm Oct 26, 2012 2:05pm
Finished my week with +156 pips Real happy with the result.
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #45
  • Oct 26, 2012 6:18pm Oct 26, 2012 6:18pm
Quoting KADC
That's very interesting. How did you decide upon a 72 MA to use on the hourly chart? Is that simple moving averages you're using?

I occasionally use 14/40 exponential moving averages, taking crossover as reversal confirmations. When a candle touches the upper line for bear trends or the lower line for bull trends, that usually a good place to take a position when you've missed out on a move already in play. I learned it for stocks but it works for Forex as well.
Sorry I live about 30 minutes from the US border and took a quick trip into the US this morning, and therefore missed your post but Davit has responded to about the other thread where we also joggle ideas.

Have a good week end, and see you next week.

God bless

George
Low Risk Low Stress High Reward High Probability Trades
  • #46
  • Edited Oct 27, 2012 5:04am Oct 26, 2012 6:41pm | Edited Oct 27, 2012 5:04am
Quoting Davit
I suggest you change to regular candles so you can see Price action better.Lot of information gets lost on H candles since Heiken ashi uses average of H/L not actual.
If you have not studied Japanese Candle formations I suggest you do because it is vital you understand them.
I am including a PDF for you
Thank you Davit, I do have a similar e-book but will read through this too. I agree with you about the regular candlesticks compared to HA. I do not use the HA candles but the RSI or MA candles and still read them as regular candles and when they change colour, I know a possible trend change is in the offering; and at the same time, I can change the size of the candle the way I want. My style of trading is not exactly with one to three candle formation but several of them, looking for a 1-2-3 price wave, divergence (regular and hidden) at supply and demand levels, with few MAs, to confirm whether trend is changing or continuing. I leave the candlestick formations and interpretation to experts like you and just take your analysis into consideration when I am doing mine; and then wait like a patient hunter for the right time to strike on confirmation from my currency strength meter.

Thanks again as your analysis and that of KADC are very insightful and helpful.

Have a great week end, and see you folks next week by the grace of God.

Cheers, and God bless

George
Low Risk Low Stress High Reward High Probability Trades
  • #47
  • Edited 10:08pm Oct 26, 2012 10:05pm | Edited 10:08pm
I went to bed shortly after my last post and I have no opinion about next week, but I still had this chart open on my laptop and I thought I'd share it.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: US Dollar Index(Daily)20121026.JPG Size: 69 KB


US dollar index was rejected from channel resistance but remains above the psychological and frequent support/resistance level 80, ending the day with an indecisive candle. A breach of fractal channel support would convince me it's heading down but we'll have to wait until next week to see what happens.
You can always make money tomorrow provided you don't lose it today.
  • #48
  • Oct 28, 2012 3:21am Oct 28, 2012 3:21am
KADC and George
Lets make some green pips next week.I am super motivated.

EU possible bounce back to 1.30 zone or 2865 strong support area. NO real US dollar news until NOV 1st when unemployment farm numbers come out.
AU possible bounce to 39-40 zone and if breaks next stop 45 zone or back to 3250 or lower 26 area.
As traders we don't predict the future we just follow the money!
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: au.gif Size: 22 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: eu.gif Size: 24 KB
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #49
  • Oct 29, 2012 3:39am Oct 29, 2012 3:39am
Good morning Davit, and yes let us make green pips this week, and so help us God

Been watching retest of prior low on both the EU & EJ and waiting to see how the divergence plays out before deciding whether to join the bears, and if price bounces off this demand level, then we may get an early alert for long positions on both pairs.

Cheers

George
Low Risk Low Stress High Reward High Probability Trades
  • #50
  • Edited 8:35am Oct 29, 2012 8:27am | Edited 8:35am
The only two positions I have at the moment are the Dec GC short I maintained over the weekend and GBP/USD short I have re-re-re-opened (I don't remember why I closed it ...seems foolish looking at my charts right now but I'm sure I had a good reason at the time) and this time I'll hold onto it.

Hmmm... I thought the announcement was all trading through NY was closed at 9:15am but trading doesn't appear to have stopped.

Addendum: It looks like the closure only affects stocks, and darn it, I just remembered I was going to double my position on PPLT (platinum ETF) as it has fallen to it's 200 DMA/50% Fibonacci retracement.
You can always make money tomorrow provided you don't lose it today.
  • #51
  • Oct 29, 2012 9:25am Oct 29, 2012 9:25am
Quoting KADC
The only two positions I have at the moment are the Dec GC short I maintained over the weekend and GBP/USD short I have re-re-re-opened (I don't remember why I closed it ...seems foolish looking at my charts right now but I'm sure I had a good reason at the time) and this time I'll hold onto it.

Hmmm... I thought the announcement was all trading through NY was closed at 9:15am but trading doesn't appear to have stopped.

Addendum: It looks like the closure only affects stocks, and darn it, I just remembered I was going to double my position...
Good morning bro. I closed my GU as well regretfully.Finally the fat lady dropped 60pips.
GU can be very stubborn.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gu.gif Size: 21 KB
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #52
  • Oct 29, 2012 9:56am Oct 29, 2012 9:56am
UC is on the verge of breaking big psychological number 1.0 and I plan on shorting from 1.0050
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: uc.gif Size: 19 KB
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #53
  • Nov 2, 2012 12:31pm Nov 2, 2012 12:31pm
I haven't been doing much trading this week, primarily because this week has been such a mess.

I'm still short Dec GC (gold futures) with a reversal target of $1670 ($1666 is the 50% Fibonacci/200 DMA) and a simple stop at $1685 in which case I'll decide what I want to do on Monday if it triggers.

My only Forex short is EUR/USD -- I've set a stop at 1.2856 with no target at this point other than "down".

With the rising USD index I really don't understand what's going on with the pairs this week. Aussie and Kiwi made gains I don't understand so I'm staying away for now, and I got jerked around by the Pound so much last week that I'm waiting for it to clear out of the congestion zone it's before I touch it again. The Yen went the wrong way after the BoJ announcement and I didn't trade it even after it finally headed down like it should. The Loonie is gaining despite oil falling and bad economic data so I've avoided it too.

For next week, the Loonie looks like it's in a pretty clear bull channel and is just pulling back to the support line, but I'll wait until it hits support and go long rather than go against the major trend. Everything else I'll wait until Monday to evaluate as my focus today has been buying gold, silver, platinum, and miners ETFs at these lovely discount prices.
You can always make money tomorrow provided you don't lose it today.
  • #54
  • Nov 2, 2012 7:22pm Nov 2, 2012 7:22pm
Posted some two winning trades from yesterday for EURCAD and GBPUSD both producing about 160 & 120 pips respectively. I was too busy and should have referenced the trades here too.

I should hopefully be more active next week when we adjust time.

Have a good week end all, and God bless


George
Low Risk Low Stress High Reward High Probability Trades
  • #55
  • Nov 3, 2012 10:08am Nov 3, 2012 10:08am
Quoting 919gilead
Posted some two winning trades from yesterday for EURCAD and GBPUSD both producing about 160 & 120 pips respectively. I was too busy and should have referenced the trades here too.

I should hopefully be more active next week when we adjust time.

Have a good week end all, and God bless


George
George glad to see you.Looking forward for profitable Nov

Results of Oct 2012
MB trading Main account 8% return Oct
Oanda smaller account 8.5% return Oct
They look similar because I took the same trades on both accounts.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: MB Oct Equity.JPG Size: 37 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: O Oct 2012.JPG Size: 36 KB
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #56
  • Edited Nov 4, 2012 2:20am Nov 3, 2012 10:17am | Edited Nov 4, 2012 2:20am
Found this indi - Sonic channel.It draws beautiful price channel with middle dotted line.
I am planning to use the channel as reference points where Price bounces off and middle dotted line as covering the trade or partial profit taking.
Notice how beautifully price bounces of the TL? This is 30min same for 1hr
I eliminated all EMA's except 200.I find they can get distracting what really is taking place in the market.Only relevant EMA is 200 because markets respect it.
People who say forex Market is random are not looking hard enough.I strongly disagree.Its organized chaos.Notice how TL on my chart has precise angle? That's not random.Switch to any TF you will see markets always for most part react to TL.
I am a huge Fibonacci fan and combine TL with Fibs and the random starts making sense.Goal is to exploit from organized chaos.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu ch.gif Size: 22 KB
Attached File(s)
File Type: mq4 Sonic SHI Channel MTF.mq4   9 KB | 416 downloads
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #57
  • Nov 7, 2012 11:46pm Nov 7, 2012 11:46pm
After hitting Sept 8% Oct 9% Nov starting out real great.Perhaps I can break that 10% zone.
Here my equity for Nov so far. Nov 7th day after elections.

I trade almost naked chart with few EMA and volume.However I do use Fib retrace and I understand the principles behind.
Even though I don't use Donchian channel I however respect his work.Considered by many to be father of trend following.
After thinking about Donchian and seeing how Price bounces off from median line I am highly intrigued to incorporate median line trading in my arsenal.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: nov 7th eqyuity.JPG Size: 35 KB
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #58
  • Nov 8, 2012 12:16am Nov 8, 2012 12:16am
Inserted Video

about median line.


http://www.medianline.com/journal/ca...o-median-lines
site has lot of valuable info on ML

I am always in opinion that knowing more about trading can't hurt.If you watch PA often then you do notice that median line does effect the price.
Take a look at 4hr AU chart of today recent.Notice price respects TL real well except on the left which was news.Notice how price spends rather lengthy time at median line.So we can anticipate sort of break out from median line back to upper or lower TL.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: au.gif Size: 23 KB
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #59
  • Nov 8, 2012 12:38am Nov 8, 2012 12:38am
Quoting Davit
...site has lot of valuable info on ML
...
I am always in opinion that knowing more about trading can't hurt.If you watch PA often then you do notice that median line does effect the price.
Take a look at 4hr AU chart of today recent.Notice price respects TL real well except on the left which was news.Notice how price spends rather lengthy time at median line.So we can anticipate sort of break out from median line back to upper or lower TL.
I've never heard Andrews Pitchforks referred to as median lines before.
You can always make money tomorrow provided you don't lose it today.
  • #60
  • Nov 8, 2012 12:48am Nov 8, 2012 12:48am
Quoting KADC
I've never heard Andrews Pitchforks referred to as median lines before.
Hi bro. I think they are same thing.
There is an interview of him on YouTube him saying it.
http://www.trading-naked.com/andrews_intro_morge.htm
Andrews Median Lines intro
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
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