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Davit's Confluence Trading

  • #21
  • Oct 24, 2012 6:45am Oct 24, 2012 6:45am
USD/CAD hit the resistance line of the bull trending channel it's in on the daily chart which should send it down, but oil is heading down which should send it up, thus I think it's going to trade sideways until it hits the channel support line and then head up.

That said, US dollar index is poised to either break up or get turned down today, and USD strength or weakness always supersedes what's happening with the Loonie.

Carney's been hinting at a rate hike which wouldn't be announced today, but today's BoC monetary policy report or his comments afterwards could still change things. Also, US housing data could affect this pair since good data is good for the Loonie (boon for Canadian lumber) but it's also good for USD, so it's better to trade non-US pairs like the EUR/CAD or CAD/JPY to take advantage of good or bad data that affects the Loonie. There's also FOMC and US rate decisions later, but I don't expect anything to come from those.

For daily scalping, if there's not a clear reason to trade a specific pair, I look at all the currencies and decide which is the strongest and which is the weakest and trade that pair, and at the moment it appears to be the EUR/AUD which has fallen 125 points so far. So from a Canadian dollar standpoint, if the Loonie weakens today, AUD/CAD might be the best pair to look at assuming the Aussie remains strong, else if the Loonie strengthens EUR/CAD might be the pair to go with provided the Euro remains weak.
You can always make money tomorrow provided you don't lose it today.
  • #22
  • Oct 24, 2012 10:56am Oct 24, 2012 10:56am
Quoting KADC
USD/CAD hit the resistance line of the bull trending channel it's in on the daily chart which should send it down, but oil is heading down which should send it up, thus I think it's going to trade sideways until it hits the channel support line and then head up.

That said, US dollar index is poised to either break up or get turned down today, and USD strength or weakness always supersedes what's happening with the Loonie.

Carney's been hinting at a rate hike which wouldn't be announced today, but today's BoC monetary policy report or his comments...
Great feedback KADC specially about housing in US relating to positive Canadian lumber.I never thought about that!Thank you
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #23
  • Oct 24, 2012 11:39am Oct 24, 2012 11:39am
I didn't follow the press conference, but Carney clearly said something because the Loonie fell sharply shortly after it began.
You can always make money tomorrow provided you don't lose it today.
  • #24
  • Oct 24, 2012 4:15pm Oct 24, 2012 4:15pm
Quoting KADC
I didn't follow the press conference, but Carney clearly said something because the Loonie fell sharply shortly after it began.
Thank you KADC

One of the pairs I am watching is UJ. It looks like it reached its "Top"
Any sign of weakness and this baby is ripe to drop.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: uj.gif Size: 16 KB
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #25
  • Edited Oct 25, 2012 12:52am Oct 24, 2012 11:00pm | Edited Oct 25, 2012 12:52am
Little slow so I will post something inspirational.
In a very short time my trading has improved tremendously and I attributed that to positive thinking and being attracted to ideas top traders use.
I read many traders 5-8yrs in trading still using ton of indicators and still losing money.
If you are attracted to losing strategy ,ideas you become that exactly.For some it takes years of turmoil to finally wake up from stupor and I want to post a movie to inspire you.Its not the usual movie.Watch it and it will transform you.http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedi...SecretLogo.jpg
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #26
  • Oct 25, 2012 12:28am Oct 25, 2012 12:28am
Short AU PA reached 1st resistance 2nd line above is next R.I may add another short at 2nd resistance if PA breaks 1st.

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1351142676
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #27
  • Edited 4:35am Oct 25, 2012 4:11am | Edited 4:35am
Not one of your usual trades, but GBP/USD was repelled right at the resistance line of the bear channel it's been in since mid September despite strong data. If it's a genuine reversal (stop just above my entry point at 1.6138) it could turn out to be a good play.

GBP/CAD is a possibility as well but I'm not as convinced. It regularly has 200 point moves so a great play if it works out but I'm waiting for GBP/USD to retest its ceiling first before I enter a second GBP-based trade.

*I'm also eyeing a short of EUR/NZD.

...er, scratch that. AUD and NZD might be poised for reversals and EUR looks like it's gaining strength, so I'll wait for the North American markets to open before taking any new positions.

p.s. Anyone know the code for strikethrough on Forex Factory? The standard code doesn't work.
You can always make money tomorrow provided you don't lose it today.
  • #28
  • Oct 25, 2012 4:53am Oct 25, 2012 4:53am
Here's a link to the DailyFX Live Trading Room. http://www.dailyfx.com/live_forex_trading_room/

It's not 24 hours but there's usually a live analyst going over his positions and taking questions during key economic events and when markets open. Not all of them are good -- make note of the ones you like.

Here's the analysts' trade log. They all use different strategies so pick and choose who you follow.

http://www.dailyfx.com/analyst_picks


...

My GBP/USD stop triggered so I'm going back to bed for a couple of hour and I'll re-evaluate what's what then.
You can always make money tomorrow provided you don't lose it today.
  • #29
  • Oct 25, 2012 8:05am Oct 25, 2012 8:05am
Quoting KADC
Not one of your usual trades, but GBP/USD was repelled right at the resistance line of the bear channel it's been in since mid September despite strong data. If it's a genuine reversal (stop just above my entry point at 1.6138) it could turn out to be a good play.

GBP/CAD is a possibility as well but I'm not as convinced. It regularly has 200 point moves so a great play if it works out but I'm waiting for GBP/USD to retest its ceiling first before I enter a second GBP-based trade.

*I'm also eyeing a short of EUR/NZD.

...er, scratch that....
Good morning bro
Love your analytical approach.
I got in with you on GBP/USD short at 6134 TP to be decided but 100pips will do
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #30
  • Oct 25, 2012 8:09am Oct 25, 2012 8:09am
Quoting KADC
Here's a link to the DailyFX Live Trading Room. http://www.dailyfx.com/live_forex_trading_room/

It's not 24 hours but there's usually a live analyst going over his positions and taking questions during key economic events and when markets open. Not all of them are good -- make note of the ones you like.

Here's the analysts' trade log. They all use different strategies so pick and choose who you follow.

http://www.dailyfx.com/analyst_picks


...

My GBP/USD stop triggered so I'm going back to bed for a couple of hour and...
Thanks for the links.I will check it out.
Regards
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #31
  • Oct 25, 2012 9:00am Oct 25, 2012 9:00am
Quoting Davit
Good morning bro
Love your analytical approach.
I got in with you on GBP/USD short at 6134 TP to be decided but 100pips will do
GBP/USD is clinging to the trendline and neither good GBP data last night nor good USD data this morning can shake it loose. Though it was nice of it to wait for me to finish my nap, that smells like big money waiting for a non-calendar surprise announcement to me which tend to be big movements. EUR/USD is behaving, so whatever it is will be something out of England. I think we're on the right side of this and I'll re-enter at 1.61375 or 1.61350, where-ever the current 5min candle takes it.

EUR/NZD is what I'm leaning towards but at 1.5 versus 1.3 of EUR/USD its going to yield less 20% profit for the same investment, and both have oddly stalled despite the good US data so something is definitely up, but I think I'm giving the edge to EUR/USD because the Aussie and Kiwi both stalled against USD last night and at least the Euro is moving.

Everyone is long on USD/JPY but I'm waiting to see how it reacts at 80.5 before I get aboard that train. I know I'm late to the party, but that pair has been too unpredictable in the congestion area, and now that it's been set free I trust it even less. The size of the potential upside is compelling, but I'm going to wait.
You can always make money tomorrow provided you don't lose it today.
  • #32
  • Oct 25, 2012 10:56am Oct 25, 2012 10:56am
Quoting KADC
GBP/USD is clinging to the trendline and neither good GBP data last night nor good USD data this morning can shake it loose. Though it was nice of it to wait for me to finish my nap, that smells like big money waiting for a non-calendar surprise announcement to me which tend to be big movements. EUR/USD is behaving, so whatever it is will be something out of England. I think we're on the right side of this and I'll re-enter at 1.61375 or 1.61350, where-ever the current 5min candle takes it.

EUR/NZD is what I'm leaning towards but at 1.5 versus...
Closed my 3x AU with 78pip profit
I am letting GU run to 60
You made me think about UJ a pair I rarely look.Thanks
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #33
  • Oct 25, 2012 11:12am Oct 25, 2012 11:12am
All the DailyFX analysts are with us for shorting GBP/USD, but I'm going against all of them by also shorting USD/JPY and NZD/USD.

By having USD on both sides of these trades I'm really trading JPY strength and NZD weakness (really, oversold and overbought respectively). I think both are heading towards their respective 50 DMAs, though I'll be keeping a close watch on them and will bail on the first indication that I'm wrong.

Also, because I trade with an ECN broker, my USD amounts cancel each other out so I'm only paying for the JPY and NZD portions of my trade. I don't know what kind of broker you have so that may or may not mean anything to you.
You can always make money tomorrow provided you don't lose it today.
  • #34
  • Oct 25, 2012 11:31am Oct 25, 2012 11:31am
Great job KADC & Davit.

I should join you folks soon.

Davit,

Maybe you should consider a Skype trading room and we can chat and analyse what we see live as refreshing the thread to see new post can be late sometimes. What do you think?

George
Low Risk Low Stress High Reward High Probability Trades
  • #35
  • Oct 25, 2012 12:39pm Oct 25, 2012 12:39pm
The Chance Card for USD/JPY short read: "Return to Go and do not collect $200". Maybe I should have placed the stop at 80.350 and left it to see what happens as it looks like it's running out of steam, but once a trade retraces through the 61.8% it's usually not going to turn around.

NZD/USD is still in play because I set the stop a bit higher, but I'm not particularly hopeful. It looks like the analysts where right this time.

Hopefully GBP/USD keeps heading on down to make up for my contradictory trading strategy.

All told, today was a wash and I should have just stayed in bed which is where I'm going now.
You can always make money tomorrow provided you don't lose it today.
  • #36
  • Oct 25, 2012 7:41pm Oct 25, 2012 7:41pm
I am looking at 2 scenarios in Aussie for the next session:

1. Sell break of 1.0331 with stop at 1.0367. 1st take profit at 1.0269 if 1.0300 is easily broken, and 2nd take profit at 1.0234 (the low from Oct 23, shown on the H1 chart)

2. The 2nd option is to reverse option 1 should price bounce off the 72MA and buy at 1.0367 with 1.0331 as stop loss and target retest of the prior high at 1.0410 and if price continues higher, I will switch to the H4 TF to look for the next supply level as possible target.

My personal thoughts and trading plan for the next session.

Cheers, and God bless

George
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: au trade setup1 - 10252012.jpg Size: 181 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: au trade setup2 - 10252012.jpg Size: 193 KB
Low Risk Low Stress High Reward High Probability Trades
  • #37
  • Edited Oct 26, 2012 2:04am Oct 25, 2012 8:43pm | Edited Oct 26, 2012 2:04am
I'm favouring a Friday risk sell-off scenario to develop once the European market opens -- basically short xxx/USD and long USD/xxx pairs. Of course I'll have to wait and see what happens as everything is just moving sideways at the moment.

I'm also watching USD/JPY to fall below 79.95* at which I point I'll likely re-initiate my short of that pair as there's been no pull-back in this pair in two weeks and some profit taking is overdue.

*It did, but I chose to short AUD/JPY instead. a) it was moving faster and b) US GDP data can cause crazy reactions and I'd rather not be in a USD pair when it hits. I will likely close my NZD/USD unless it's moved far enough into profit to not be affected by a spike due to US GDP data.
You can always make money tomorrow provided you don't lose it today.
  • #38
  • Oct 25, 2012 8:51pm Oct 25, 2012 8:51pm
Quoting 919gilead
I am looking at 2 scenarios in Aussie for the next session:
Have you considered AUD/JPY? It's been trading in slightly better defined channel, and if USD/JPY and AUD/USD break down it will as well but likely with a greater move. The same is true of NZD/JPY, but with a trading ratio of approximately 0.65 converted to USD you get 35% greater yield (or loss) per investment dollar.
You can always make money tomorrow provided you don't lose it today.
  • #39
  • Oct 26, 2012 6:37am Oct 26, 2012 6:37am
Quoting KADC
Have you considered AUD/JPY? It's been trading in slightly better defined channel, and if USD/JPY and AUD/USD break down it will as well but likely with a greater move. The same is true of NZD/JPY, but with a trading ratio of approximately 0.65 converted to USD you get 35% greater yield (or loss) per investment dollar.
Hi KADC,

Just reading your mail as I did not get notification of any update to the thread after your last contribution. I did not consider the other pairs you mentioned because I use proximity of price to the 72MA on H1 & 200MA on M15 to determine pairs of interest and then watch the CSM (currency strength meter) for confirmation. AUDUSD broke the level as I anticipated and has pulled back to retest the BO point and would have gone short but have no CSM confirmation. I instead shorted the EURUSD and missed the EURJPY which was a better option. I have my alert on for AUDUSD and still expecting to short this pair.

Thanks for your great and excellent analysis.

Have a good week end

Shalom, and God bless

George
Low Risk Low Stress High Reward High Probability Trades
  • #40
  • Oct 26, 2012 11:07am Oct 26, 2012 11:07am
Today has been a disappointing GDP/end of the month day. Except Toronto, markets are falling (slightly) which is risk-off, but GDP was strong which is risk-on, and it seems to have formed an equilibrium.

Normally I'd expect risk-on pairs to rise after strong GDP then return (still a possibility) but so far I'd might as well have gone back to bed. The USD index is holding above 80 and RSI above 50 it's still within the realm of possibility, but with a lack of volume and the European markets now closed, any move will likely be small.

All I've got on right now is my gold short which I exited and re-entered at $1715 and a short of GBP/USD with a tight stop at 1.6055 and no profit.
You can always make money tomorrow provided you don't lose it today.
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