Now short on USD/CHF, tested twice the weekly R1, divergence, stochs looking good...
That's true: continuous position in OS territory is a sign of weakness but in this occasion that wasn't the case! From making a low after 9am UK time, every 15 mins the M15 Stox had been rising up to the point of the next M5 Short signal (see Imperator's chart).
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...37#post6128237
This is a better example of M15 Stox on the floor, unable to rise and continuous weakness in the price carrying on...
http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...5&d=1351003165
So...
...moved the SL to BE in Usd/Chf
- #6,210
- Oct 24, 2012 7:36am Oct 24, 2012 7:36am
- | Joined May 2011 | Status: Just Call me Oli | 631 Posts
Ok, I'll try to remember these next time
...moved the SL to BE in Usd/Chf
The tell-tale sign (and the one that would have kept me out of a short trade) is that although it was still below 20, the M15 Stox had been continuously rising since the lows and was approaching the 20 level when the M5 signal came (ie, not yet ripe for a Long but caution at least for a Short)
And if we carry on down in UC, the 80%ATR is nicely positioned at 9316 for a possible retest of today's low area
- #6,215
- Edited 8:21am Oct 24, 2012 8:07am | Edited 8:21am
I performed a pivots review of EURUSD (actually I performed this analysis for all markets I trade) for the period 10/15/2002 thru 9/28/2012 (so about 10 years) and discovered the following:
~The Low <= S3 5.56% of the time
~The Low <= S2 16.56% of the time
~The Low <= S1 42.60% of the time
~The High >= R1 44.97% of the time
~The High >= R2 18.27% of the time
~The High >= R3 7.19% of the time
What does this mean to me?
Shorting below or near S2 and Buying above or near R2 is a low-probability play.
My procedures were taken from this article (I believe Dmitry first posted the link to the article, but I can't remember):
http://www.investopedia.com/articles...#axzz282lnHUbg
I hope this helps.
~The Low <= S3 5.56% of the time
~The Low <= S2 16.56% of the time
~The Low <= S1 42.60% of the time
~The High >= R1 44.97% of the time
~The High >= R2 18.27% of the time
~The High >= R3 7.19% of the time
What does this mean to me?
Shorting below or near S2 and Buying above or near R2 is a low-probability play.
My procedures were taken from this article (I believe Dmitry first posted the link to the article, but I can't remember):
http://www.investopedia.com/articles...#axzz282lnHUbg
I hope this helps.
- #6,218
- Oct 24, 2012 8:50am Oct 24, 2012 8:50am
.As we don't reach S1/R1 more than half the time, for trades taken around the PP, it should be a good idea to have your TP (or a part of it) a few pips before S1/R1 (as suggested previously in here)...
.As we don't reach S2/R2 between 80 & 85% of the time, opposite direction trades initiated around these levels on a Genesis signal should have a good statistical chance of success (even more so at S3/R3) but bear in mind that by the time we've reached S2/S3/R2/R3 we will have a definite trend in one direction and despite the stats you...
Although, I'm not quite sure that we can conclude that taking opposite direction trades at S2/R2 will provide a good statistical chance of success. I'm not saying that it won't, I would just urge everyone to perform their own due dilligence.
- #6,219
- Oct 24, 2012 12:04pm Oct 24, 2012 12:04pm
- Joined Oct 2010 | Status: Trader | 1,536 Posts
made my 30 pips today
sorry if this noob question
When the arrow in M5 show first before same-4-color-matrix, is that make better signal/setup?
And congratulations on the pips
End of day wrap-up:
EJ -11
EJ +57
EU -15
EU -22
UJ +7
Total: + 16
I've been studying my trades and the charts this evening and see that the drawdowns are mostly because I did not let the trade run long enough. Instead when the trade reversed I decided to cut my loses and move on.
Lessons:
1. Trust the system and my own ability to take a good trade
2. DONT BE GREEDY!! Rather skip on a good trade than to take a bad one
EJ -11
EJ +57
EU -15
EU -22
UJ +7
Total: + 16
I've been studying my trades and the charts this evening and see that the drawdowns are mostly because I did not let the trade run long enough. Instead when the trade reversed I decided to cut my loses and move on.
Lessons:
1. Trust the system and my own ability to take a good trade
2. DONT BE GREEDY!! Rather skip on a good trade than to take a bad one