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  • #3,801
  • Oct 17, 2012 6:27am Oct 17, 2012 6:27am
Quoting lovejoy80
The move occurred prior to news, I don't know why but CAD had a sudden move across the board. I didn't take this setup (though I was planning too) as the fast move caught me out - I would have either not taken it or reduced risk on it because I would class that move as impulsive.

I definitely wouldn't have taken a total loss on it after the half decent reaction (relative to the impulsive move) i.e. would have moved my SL to above the reaction bar high at least.
Hi LJ,

I apologize, but I didn't quite get your answer.

The big spike bar occurred exactly during US Core CPI news release plus other CAD news releases.

This is the bar I am referring to. Had I placed my stops outside the CP zone, I would have been stopped out. The trade didn't quite get stopped out simply because I placed it above resistance.

Considering that for such situations we should trade with a limit order ( a sell limit in this case), where would you have placed your stops considering that there was news coming?

Sorry if I misunderstood your answer, but it wasn't very clear to me.

Best.

JP.
  • #3,802
  • Oct 17, 2012 9:20am Oct 17, 2012 9:20am
Quoting 5.25
It was a day of bad decisions / missed opportunities for me today.

NZDUSD, missed the original FB and 15/30m BUOB. Was looking to enter on the 1m/5m FTB at 0.81257. Scratched the order for some reason.
Yeah NU was a nice one, the H4 picture looked good.

Couple of other nice FB's on higher TF's yesterday - NCAD in particular.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: nu.gif Size: 27 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: ncad.gif Size: 26 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: eg.jpg Size: 92 KB
  • #3,803
  • Oct 17, 2012 9:27am Oct 17, 2012 9:27am
Quoting jupiter_peak
Hi LJ,

I apologize, but I didn't quite get your answer.

The big spike bar occurred exactly during US Core CPI news release plus other CAD news releases.

This is the bar I am referring to. Had I placed my stops outside the CP zone, I would have been stopped out. The trade didn't quite get stopped out simply because I placed it above resistance.

Considering that for such situations we should trade with a limit order ( a sell limit in this case), where would you have placed your stops considering that there was news coming?

Sorry if...
I'm talking about the setup marked with the arrow below. The impulsive move (5min chart on the bottom left) started at 12.00 BST and price hit the SR for the FTB at 12.18 BST with the US + CAD news out at 13.30 BST i.e. price hit this area before news.

If an order is about to get triggered very close to major news events I don't trade - the risk if slippage, whipsaws and increased spread is just not worth the risk for me.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: UCAD2.jpg Size: 120 KB
  • #3,804
  • Oct 17, 2012 9:36am Oct 17, 2012 9:36am
Quoting lovejoy80
I'm talking about the setup marked with the arrow below. The impulsive move (5min chart on the bottom left) started at 12.00 BST and price hit the SR for the FTB at 12.18 BST with the US + CAD news out at 13.30 BST i.e. price hit this area before news.

If an order is about to get triggered very close to major news events I don't trade - the risk if slippage, whipsaws and increased spread is just not worth the risk for me.
Lj,

Thanks for your kind answer.

Very clear now.
  • #3,805
  • Oct 17, 2012 10:31am Oct 17, 2012 10:31am
Quoting jupiter_peak
Lj,

Thanks for your kind answer.

Very clear now.
By the way, that particular trade had some very nice ingredients to it such as the supply area being the high of the month.

Still going south.

;-)
  • #3,806
  • Oct 17, 2012 2:29pm Oct 17, 2012 2:29pm
Quoting lovejoy80
Yeah NU was a nice one, the H4 picture looked good.

Couple of other nice FB's on higher TF's yesterday - NCAD in particular.
Thanks for the feedback. Here's one from today. Better entry would have been the 5m RBR zone, instead I just rode the rush for just under 0.8R (Priced moved too quick to calculated the correct R%)
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 439 eurusd m15.jpg Size: 71 KB
  • #3,807
  • Oct 17, 2012 2:42pm Oct 17, 2012 2:42pm
Quoting 5.25
Thanks for the feedback. Here's one from today. Better entry would have been the 5m RBR zone, instead I just rode the rush for just under 0.8R (Priced moved too quick to calculated the correct R%)
...and here's the other. The D zone and the retest of the PB came into play. S getting nicely consumed in a way that could be graphically read as opposed to the mornings S consumption (which I struggled to rationalise).

Nice rush on the break
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 440 eurusd m1.jpg Size: 98 KB
  • #3,808
  • Oct 17, 2012 3:06pm Oct 17, 2012 3:06pm
sold UJ. nice 1H-FB, entry on 1m-TF, 1m-QM
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Pipcrawler
  • #3,809
  • Oct 18, 2012 2:55pm Oct 18, 2012 2:55pm
As previously expected EURUSD made a return to the resistance broken earlier this week. Provided a nice long in the direction of the mid-term trend.

Very small stops too.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eur_usd_h4_ftb_18_10_2012.jpg Size: 84 KB
  • #3,810
  • Oct 18, 2012 5:27pm Oct 18, 2012 5:27pm
hi all
is this something to watch?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: cad chf h4.gif Size: 12 KB
  • #3,811
  • Edited 3:27pm Oct 19, 2012 2:24pm | Edited 3:27pm
Hi LJ,

Planning this FTB for USCAD, if and when price gets there.

It seems there are two levels inside the demand area. The upper level (DP or area of balance #2) seems to be the more precise area due to the bigger bars during the breakout.

I probably know the answer for this, but it seems that the upper level is a bit tight. Where would you place your stops in this case?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usd_cad_m15_2_areas_balance_cp_18_10_2012.jpg Size: 75 KB
  • #3,812
  • Oct 19, 2012 3:36pm Oct 19, 2012 3:36pm
SR FTB short on GCHF today. An M30, M15 TF setup with a nice 5min DBD just at the breakout of the SR - entry and SL was based around this DBD.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gchf1.gif Size: 26 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: gchf2.gif Size: 27 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: gchf3.gif Size: 25 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: gchf4.png Size: 232 KB
  • #3,813
  • Oct 19, 2012 3:44pm Oct 19, 2012 3:44pm
Quoting pex
hi all
is this something to watch?
It's probably not one I'd be trading as an FTB TT. I wouldn't really give too much emphasis to the SR you've drawn myself, it's not clear enough for me...but I would note that this area has some signifcance on the Monthly, Weekly and Daily TF's.

I'm not really into fibs like I used to be and don't really have any need for confluence any more in that respect.

There is of course a DBD on H4, but what I'm really looking for is clear SD zones which have substance and most importantly clear decision points that define the edge. A break of a clear DP in forming the zone tells us that price had to overcome clear demand (in this case) and thus tells us that there was strong supply - I don't really see that with this zone and even when I zoom in I can't see any clear DP.

So for me it's not one I'd be trading as an FTB - I'd be looking for PA at that area (but it's not a pair I really do that on unless it's an obvious PA setup around H1, H4 TF).
  • #3,814
  • Oct 19, 2012 3:50pm Oct 19, 2012 3:50pm
Quoting jupiter_peak
Hi LJ,

Planning this FTB for USCAD, if and when price gets there.

It seems there are two levels inside the demand area. The upper level (DP or area of balance #2) seems to be the more precise area due to the bigger bars during the breakout.

I probably know the answer for this, but it seems that the upper level is a bit tight. Where would you place your stops in this case?
Chart attached.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: UCAD.jpg Size: 89 KB
  • #3,815
  • Oct 19, 2012 5:14pm Oct 19, 2012 5:14pm
Balhama, quick chart I thought I'd pull up based on your observation, hope you don't mind. Pretty much the first one of merit (with old annotation). Clear S, with 4h close refined entry. Maybe there's something in this.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 441 usdcad h4.jpg Size: 85 KB
  • #3,816
  • Oct 20, 2012 3:49am Oct 20, 2012 3:49am
Quoting 5.25
Balhama, quick chart I thought I'd pull up based on your observation, hope you don't mind. Pretty much the first one of merit (with old annotation). Clear S, with 4h close refined entry. Maybe there's something in this.
No, I don't mind. I try to refine my entry based on 1M/5M near 4H close. Check this 1M chart.

BTW, we shouldn't expect a big reaction from the RBD supply you marked because those areas are compressed.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: UC 1M.jpg Size: 139 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: UC 4H.jpg Size: 187 KB
  • #3,817
  • Oct 20, 2012 4:21am Oct 20, 2012 4:21am
Quoting Balhana
No, I don't mind. I try to refine my entry based on 1M/5M near 4H close. Check this 1M chart.

BTW, we shouldn't expect a big reaction from the RBD supply you marked because those areas are compressed.
You remember my EN trade yesterday. I used 4H close also when trading this pair. Take a look at the charts to see how I used 4H closes.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EN 4H.jpg Size: 101 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: EN 1H.jpg Size: 197 KB
  • #3,818
  • Oct 20, 2012 5:32am Oct 20, 2012 5:32am
Tomek, take a look at the attached GBP/NZD daily chart. I always use daily/4H closes based on supply/demand.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GN Daily.jpg Size: 368 KB
  • #3,819
  • Oct 20, 2012 6:11am Oct 20, 2012 6:11am
Quoting Balhana
Tomek, take a look at the attached GBP/NZD daily chart. I always use daily/4H closes based on supply/demand.
How to trade these daily closes in detail? Take a look at the charts.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GN Daily.jpg Size: 397 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: GN 1H.jpg Size: 227 KB
  • #3,820
  • Oct 20, 2012 6:15am Oct 20, 2012 6:15am
Quoting Balhana
How to trade these daily closes in detail? Take a look at the charts.
very well explained BAL so u usually look @daily tf! then if there is a setup then u scroll down to 1h ?
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