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  • #11,041
  • Oct 19, 2012 10:45am Oct 19, 2012 10:45am
Quoting DaddyBear
Iro, this TL could be crucial based on the latest unfolded waves. I believe it is the bottom line. IMO
This TL did hold the down move quite long.
daddybearforex. com
  • #11,042
  • Oct 19, 2012 10:49am Oct 19, 2012 10:49am
Quoting DaddyBear
The question now is whether or not 1.0322 is going to hold.
Now, the Aussie is approaching 1.0322. Let's see what happens.
daddybearforex. com
  • #11,043
  • Oct 19, 2012 11:17am Oct 19, 2012 11:17am
Quoting DaddyBear
Now, the Aussie is approaching 1.0322. Let's see what happens.
Did not hold. So sub-1.03 is eyed.
daddybearforex. com
  • #11,044
  • Oct 19, 2012 12:29pm Oct 19, 2012 12:29pm
This 1.0322 level is a bull traps zone. A lot of bulls have been caught here.
daddybearforex. com
  • #11,045
  • Oct 19, 2012 12:32pm Oct 19, 2012 12:32pm
Quoting DaddyBear
This 1.0322 level is a bull traps zone. A lot of bulls have been caught here.
While the end is insight, it may still take some time to reach there. At the end of day, the answer will be revealed.
daddybearforex. com
  • #11,046
  • Oct 19, 2012 1:19pm Oct 19, 2012 1:19pm
I use simple approach to trading that is to keep neutral at all times, and open up to 2 possibilities at all times. Especially on aud/usd, it respect support/resistance and ABCD quite well.

I usually pick a trade when it's outside of a tight box zone of support/resistance which made it range bound. Being range bound, price usually have a tight consolidation, sometime it looks bullish after a breakout phase, sometime it look like a reversal, so i am least likely to pick a trade while price is trapped in a consolidation box.

It's important to divide into 3 sessions; 1 asian, 2 europe/frankie, and us session, where the offers/bids aka support and resistance are likely to be shown. The asia usually start during japan opens and breakout to either side is likely to be about 20-50 pips, if price cannot retrace back to its previous high or low, we should continue in that direction in focus being risk on or risk off. Frankie's new test of low or high will also be noted.

Its good to build a new position on 23.6 or 61.8 on either side all the time on 2 possibilities with a good entry exit and rr not forgetting stop loss on different time frame.

when a particular price breaks support/resistance on a tight box, its likely to retrace back to former's resistance turns support or support turns resistance, its usually indicate " HEY I WANT TO START MOVING " usually during opening hours like japan, frankie, london and during the 10am US time where high volatility is expected or any major period in us session.

the better indicator would be the MACD 0 or -0 crossing over, candle strength at that point of bull/bear candle. The better timing of a price initiation of movement are in 1,5 and 15min. where hour4 and daily is more towards supply/demand or reversal. Hour4 fibo would look much clearer, usually 23.6 will begin a reversal, and after it dives to 50/61.8, if failure to reach back to 0.0 or former highest or lowest, a new position can be build on 23.6 towards 100.0 reversal trend, or target 50/61.8 again.

It's better to enter a trade because price wants to move, as the period of waiting for it to move is shorter and its much quicker compared to hours of consolidation of tight range that's mean for scalping and when a breakout happens at the wrong side of the trend, the trader get caught and suffer damage if without stop loss and married a trade usually in a price consolidation phase they pick a trade and get stucked with it and miss other fun.

However, It has to go along with fundamental at the consideration as well. But too much news interpretation serves no purpose, it's important to roughly sense it on the bigger time frame like the daily.

I never believe buying low or selling high, it's better to sell when it wants to move down, and buy when it wants to move up, so a trader don't catch a top or bottom, along side with some technical perspectives/indicators. Is it better to get a 100 pips ride in a short period compared to a 10-40 pips up down like madness and failing to take profit and get slaughter later.

have a nice weekend all, sleep well.
  • #11,047
  • Oct 19, 2012 1:23pm Oct 19, 2012 1:23pm
Quoting 5percent
I use simple approach to trading that is to keep neutral at all times, and open up to 2 possibilities at all times. Especially on aud/usd, it respect support/resistance and ABCD quite well.

I usually pick a trade when it's outside of a tight box zone of support/resistance which made it range bound. Being range bound, price usually have a tight consolidation, sometime it looks bullish after a breakout phase, sometime it look like a reversal, so i am least likely to pick a trade while price is trapped in a consolidation box.

It's important...
Great insight of trading.
daddybearforex. com
  • #11,048
  • Oct 19, 2012 1:25pm Oct 19, 2012 1:25pm
Quoting 5percent
I use simple approach to trading that is to keep neutral at all times, and open up to 2 possibilities at all times. Especially on aud/usd, it respect support/resistance and ABCD quite well.

I usually pick a trade when it's outside of a tight box zone of support/resistance which made it range bound. Being range bound, price usually have a tight consolidation, sometime it looks bullish after a breakout phase, sometime it look like a reversal, so i am least likely to pick a trade while price is trapped in a consolidation box.

It's important...
"I never believe buying low or selling high, it's better to sell when it wants to move down, and buy when it wants to move up, so a trader don't catch a top or bottom, along side with some technical perspectives/indicators."

This has been my goal and still working on it. Not to guess or to pick the reversal points is a hard work.
daddybearforex. com
  • #11,049
  • Oct 19, 2012 1:28pm Oct 19, 2012 1:28pm
Quoting DaddyBear
"I never believe buying low or selling high, it's better to sell when it wants to move down, and buy when it wants to move up, so a trader don't catch a top or bottom, along side with some technical perspectives/indicators."

This has been my goal and still working on it. Not to guess or to pick the reversal points is a hard work.
The MACD is lagging too much. I don't use it anymore.
daddybearforex. com
  • #11,050
  • Oct 19, 2012 1:29pm Oct 19, 2012 1:29pm
Now, the bear party resumes. When will it end? I guess better off not to guess according to 5%'s message.
daddybearforex. com
  • #11,051
  • Oct 19, 2012 1:31pm Oct 19, 2012 1:31pm
Quoting DaddyBear
Now, the bear party resumes. When will it end? I guess better off not to guess according to 5%'s message.
However, I still believe the top and the bottom can be located.
daddybearforex. com
  • #11,052
  • Oct 19, 2012 1:40pm Oct 19, 2012 1:40pm
Quoting DaddyBear
However, I still believe the top and the bottom can be located.
The top and the bottom vary depending on the TF and trading styles.
daddybearforex. com
  • #11,053
  • Oct 19, 2012 2:09pm Oct 19, 2012 2:09pm
Quoting DaddyBear
The MACD is lagging too much. I don't use it anymore.
There are many different kinds of macd indicators out there i personally have a few, and because of the 1 minute time frame on LIVE RATE it's easier to pick a earlier entry especially when 23.6 is either controlled to target towards a retracement or 61.8 is rejected to fall back to 0/23.6, the main thing about macd is to pick a 0 or -0 position and to get into a ride and when volatility kicks in on a breakout/trend momentum, it's likely to be within the green side or -negative side right after the 0. I use a few ma to assist me as well, particularly 50 and 100 on the intra-day basis, but i don't use it for cross over like when 7 cross 21/50 etc, these crossing over are too slow compared to candles cross over, i use it for candle over lapse, meaning i am not delayed at anytime when volatility is high.

macd to my perspectives is to only shows how strong is a momentum or is it ranging before a decision is made.

For example, if a former support was 1.0353, but the macd cross over of -0 from previous green terrain is at the point of support, we are likely to see a follow up of breaking support in the next few action accompanied with a candle clearly closing below support to show it breaking support, and a failure to return back higher showing support turns resistance, the entire movements thereafter is likely to show a wave of bearish momentum in the swing of the macd movements. I use sessions to see volatility and hours as well. Some hours will be alot of false break.
  • #11,054
  • Oct 19, 2012 2:37pm Oct 19, 2012 2:37pm
Quoting DaddyBear
Now, the bear party resumes. When will it end? I guess better off not to guess according to 5%'s message.
It seems to me that the odds of bear move to continue are equal to the odds of another bullish run.

Another thing to consider - monthly cycles - this was a bullish month and is bound to move aud to the new high by the end of the month (next week) - prior to starting a major reversal next month.
  • #11,055
  • Oct 19, 2012 3:47pm Oct 19, 2012 3:47pm
Quoting 5percent
There are many different kinds of macd indicators out there i personally have a few, and because of the 1 minute time frame on LIVE RATE it's easier to pick a earlier entry especially when 23.6 is either controlled to target towards a retracement or 61.8 is rejected to fall back to 0/23.6, the main thing about macd is to pick a 0 or -0 position and to get into a ride and when volatility kicks in on a breakout/trend momentum, it's likely to be within the green side or -negative side right after the 0. I use a few ma to assist me as well, particularly...
I got your point of using MACD. I can use other indicators to make a special MACD to my advantage in trading.
daddybearforex. com
  • #11,056
  • Oct 19, 2012 3:49pm Oct 19, 2012 3:49pm
Bah, closed my shorts - switched over to NZDUSD - there everything seems a lot clearer - easier to set up the trade for the impeding fall - not selling yet. Set up orders above current levels all the way to 0.83. Once 0.81 breaks down, NZD is going to drop like a rock to 0.77 prior to reversal.

The main point being that the upper range is a lot lower than it is with Aud - which may yet decide to test 1.06 prior to a move to 0.98. Of course, the upside with Aud is that once it reaches 1.06, it has a lot more room to fall.
  • #11,057
  • Oct 19, 2012 3:50pm Oct 19, 2012 3:50pm
Quoting maximmm
It seems to me that the odds of bear move to continue are equal to the odds of another bullish run.

Another thing to consider - monthly cycles - this was a bullish month and is bound to move aud to the new high by the end of the month (next week) - prior to starting a major reversal next month.
The daily chart has a Doji conformed today. I'd say the Bears have upper hand until another Doji appears at the "bottom".

I don't follow monthly cycle. Have no idea abut it.
daddybearforex. com
  • #11,058
  • Oct 19, 2012 3:53pm Oct 19, 2012 3:53pm
Quoting DaddyBear
The daily chart has a Doji conformed today. I'd say the Bears have upper hand until another Doji appears at the "bottom".

I don't follow monthly cycle. Have no idea abut it.
One more point about the bearish view is based on EWP. I believe a down wave has been in the cards. This is to complete the pattern.
daddybearforex. com
  • #11,059
  • Oct 19, 2012 4:03pm Oct 19, 2012 4:03pm
Quoting DaddyBear
One more point about the bearish view is based on EWP. I believe a down wave has been in the cards. This is to complete the pattern.
Well, Fibonacci says that 1.03 completes 0.618 retractment for the 3 wave pattern from 1.015 to 1.04 -

Also, as mentioned before, NZD - it's near the breaking point - if it goes just a little bit lower, it will be a beginning of a 500 pip downtrend - I doubt this will happen next week, if only b/c of monthly cycles. Of course, I could be wrong - but if NZD does break down next week, then it will mean that AUD will follow and break 1.015, rather than bounce back. Otherwise, I am all for selling Aud all the way to 0.98 - only there will it truly reverse (probably).

Anyways, trading NZD for now - I prefer clarity and Aud is not as clear as NZD at the moment.
  • #11,060
  • Oct 19, 2012 4:13pm Oct 19, 2012 4:13pm
Quoting maximmm
Well, Fibonacci says that 1.03 completes 0.618 retractment for the 3 wave pattern from 1.015 to 1.04 -
I am not quite clear about this. Could you post the beginning and ending dates of Fibonacci calculation.
daddybearforex. com
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