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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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EurAnalysis

  • #58,921
  • Oct 19, 2012 4:29am Oct 19, 2012 4:29am
Quoting lumesh
You know, IMHO you would really be better off not to sweat about the open positions of OANDAs books so much. Those positions are mostly the RESULT of general market movement NOT the CAUSE. Sure, at times of extremes, they cause perhaps 20-30 point moves when their orders are targeted by MMs but they do not CAUSE a 100+ pip movement. You will always see the retail being on the "wrong side" of the market but what you don't know is whether that direction will continue. Should the market reverse, so will the positions you see on the book. You need...
Exactly. The trend ends when I say it ends... not when the Oanda traders are going the wrong way

Seriously though, Lumesh is correct in a sense that one can never really tell when the extreme movement is ready to return to the mean. Only the market makers will know that because it is they who determine it (the "when", not the "if")
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #58,922
  • Oct 19, 2012 4:32am Oct 19, 2012 4:32am
here it is main and alt
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eur1.gif Size: 24 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: eur2.gif Size: 20 KB
Learning Requires Failure
  • #58,923
  • Oct 19, 2012 4:48am Oct 19, 2012 4:48am
Greek PM Antonis Samaras:

Greek Economy On The Brink
Think we all know that…
Unemployment figures are ‘nightmarish’
Unemployment is feeding extremism
EU partners were understanding of our position
Next tranche of aid needs to be disbursed urgently
Climate on Greece has changed in the EU
Won’t need another summit to get next tranche
Troika report will lead to loan disbursement
Troika has expressed itself in a positive manner
Certain that this is the last bitter pill Greece has to swallow
We are working towards reviving growth
Tranche payment process expected to end next month
Hopes there won’t be major reductions in EU budget
EU budget provides for Greek financing until 2020
Believes tranche will be paid after vote and troika report
Certain Greece will overcome issues of labour relations
Coalition partners are determined to save Greece
Will never be complacent until job growth returns
2year extension, gap and debt are all related and a decision will be made on all after the troika report is complete.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #58,924
  • Oct 19, 2012 5:24am Oct 19, 2012 5:24am
Italy’s PM Mario Monti:

Summit Underlined Greece’s ‘Positive Steps’
No one sees a Greek exit from the Eurozone
Greece is on a path of greater competitiveness
Greek authorities have shown determination in tackling the crisis
Rome could host a meeting aimed at combating euro-scepticism
Summit accord is the 1st step to a genuine European economic union
Some states called for bank union deadline to remain open
Summit did confirm direct bank recapitalizations and could come before full application of ECB bank supervision
Summit also confirmed all banks would be subject to supervision
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #58,925
  • Oct 19, 2012 5:41am Oct 19, 2012 5:41am
Quoting tirmizi
here it is main and alt


Hi Tirmizi,

great counts, especially the ED. I had that one not on my mind.


I counted the wave 1 as impulse, and as you know, a wave 1 in an ED can not be an impulse (see statistics attached).

But now I took a second look at this wave and you may be right: it can be easily counted at corrective move.


So I will dig deeper into it.



:-)
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: ed statistics.png Size: 33 KB
  • #58,926
  • Oct 19, 2012 5:54am Oct 19, 2012 5:54am
Thank you for you opinion lumesh..
I am not saying (& certainly not sweating over) retail open positions or COT are the the CAUSE of market movement.. but it's one of the tools in my toolbox & have a role in my market analysis.. IMHO anything that contributes to positive expectancy & fits our trading temperament playing in this cesspool is fine by me..
Still holding short from 1.3133 & will aggressively scale in once I have confirmation for a multi-figure slide with my system..

What's you take for this mess? are we going to see 1.35 before 1.25?

Quoting lumesh
You know, IMHO you would really be better off not to sweat about the open positions of OANDAs books so much. Those positions are mostly the RESULT of general market movement NOT the CAUSE. Sure, at times of extremes, they cause perhaps 20-30 point moves when their orders are targeted by MMs but they do not CAUSE a 100+ pip movement. You will always see the retail being on the "wrong side" of the market but what you don't know is whether that direction will continue. Should the market reverse, so will the positions you see on the book. You need...
  • #58,927
  • Oct 19, 2012 6:11am Oct 19, 2012 6:11am
Its hard work banking pips today, with the swings only offering 10 - 15 pips a go, but eight potential trades all add up. As I type, my last long has been closed and reversed ~the 61% (1.30604) retrace of the miserable 42.8 pip range.....
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: oct 19 € 5m 1300 gmt.gif Size: 23 KB
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #58,928
  • Oct 19, 2012 6:24am Oct 19, 2012 6:24am
Quoting Islander
Its hard work banking pips today, with the swings only offering 10 - 15 pips a go, but eight potential trades all add up. As I type, my last long has been closed and reversed ~the 61% (1.30604) retrace of the miserable 42.8 pip range.....
Pulling 80pips out of a 40 range....
Those that say do not know. Those that know do not say.
  • #58,929
  • Oct 19, 2012 6:27am Oct 19, 2012 6:27am
Quoting Islander
Its hard work banking pips today, with the swings only offering 10 - 15 pips a go, but eight potential trades all add up. As I type, my last long has been closed and reversed ~the 61% (1.30604) retrace of the miserable 42.8 pip range.....
Hey we're riding the same bus today. Also short at 1.3060. Welcome aboard. Let's see where this line ends.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #58,930
  • Oct 19, 2012 6:44am Oct 19, 2012 6:44am
Quoting PipTrapper
Hey we're riding the same bus today. Also short at 1.3060. Welcome aboard. Let's see where this line ends.
WTG - I had noticed that you'd joined the intra-day gang http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon6.gif

My trigger was at 3056 and I must confess that when that 5m closed as a high volume spinning top I did wonder if I was early, but the nice long red marubozo on the NYSE open put my mind to rest.

Now lets hope we can get that daily range to where it should be.....2980
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #58,931
  • Oct 19, 2012 6:45am Oct 19, 2012 6:45am
Quoting PipTrapper
Greek PM Antonis Samaras:

Greek Economy On The Brink
Think we all know that…
Unemployment figures are ‘nightmarish’
Unemployment is feeding extremism
EU partners were understanding of our position
Next tranche of aid needs to be disbursed urgently
Climate on Greece has changed in the EU
Won’t need another summit to get next tranche
Troika report will lead to loan disbursement
Troika has expressed itself in a positive manner
Certain that this is the last bitter pill Greece has to swallow
We are working towards reviving growth
Tranche...
So, everything is fine - nothing to worry about?
69
  • #58,932
  • Oct 19, 2012 6:59am Oct 19, 2012 6:59am
Quoting Likerty
So, everything is fine - nothing to worry about?
Yes... exactly what the Iraqi Information minister said while US missiles were landing in Baghdad

Inserted Video
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #58,933
  • Oct 19, 2012 7:03am Oct 19, 2012 7:03am
PipTrapper, I'm generaly lost with US data lthese days - is it more about risk on/of or anticipation about qe3 continuation? In other words - how good or bad data SHOULD impact E/U pair (in short term )in your view?
69
  • #58,934
  • Oct 19, 2012 7:08am Oct 19, 2012 7:08am
Quoting Likerty
PipTrapper, I'm generaly lost with US data lthese days - is it more about risk on/of or anticipation about qe3 continuation? In other words - how good or bad data SHOULD impact E/U pair (in short term )in your view?
yes the risk-on/risk-off concept is very much in play now especially since the hopium on Europe is over.
Also remember it is Friday, risk assets are overbought and good US housing prices are already priced in.

For today, it's a Friday sell-off.

Now good US data should not be as USD negative as before, and if Europe data is not so good, then expect USD to rally, even if equities rally or range.

Look how USD is rallying against risk currencies and the JPY at the same time.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #58,935
  • Oct 19, 2012 7:14am Oct 19, 2012 7:14am
Quoting Likerty
PipTrapper, I'm generaly lost with US data lthese days - is it more about risk on/of or anticipation about qe3 continuation? In other words - how good or bad data SHOULD impact E/U pair (in short term )in your view?
OK - I'm not PT, but a couple of years back I worked with small group specialising in trading the Data Releases - then the brokers caught on and started slipping us, giving re-quotes etc etc and that killed it.

Its basically about how much the announcement varies from the forecast.....take a look at the attached and you'll get an idea about how it worked
Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf News Profiteer Ebook 2.0.pdf   2.7 MB | 15,543 downloads
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #58,936
  • Oct 19, 2012 7:14am Oct 19, 2012 7:14am
Quoting Islander
WTG - I had noticed that you'd joined the intra-day gang http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon6.gif

My trigger was at 3056 and I must confess that when that 5m closed as a high volume spinning top I did wonder if I was early, but the nice long red marubozo on the NYSE open put my mind to rest.

Now lets hope we can get that daily range to where it should be.....2980
added another position at 1.3047 after failure to retrace on high volume.

Target objective is 1.3020
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #58,937
  • Oct 19, 2012 7:17am Oct 19, 2012 7:17am
Quoting PipTrapper
added another position at 1.3047 after failure to retrace on high volume.

Target objective is 1.3020
objective reached. unloaded 60% of position. letting the rest ride.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #58,938
  • Oct 19, 2012 7:23am Oct 19, 2012 7:23am
Inserted Video
Inflation in things we need, Deflation in things we want.
  • #58,939
  • Oct 19, 2012 7:27am Oct 19, 2012 7:27am
Quoting Islander
OK - I'm not PT, but a couple of years back I worked with small group specialising in trading the Data Releases - then the brokers caught on and started slipping us, giving re-quotes etc etc and that killed it.

Its basically about how much the announcement varies from the forecast.....take a look at the attached and you'll get an idea about how it worked
Thanks!
69
  • #58,940
  • Oct 19, 2012 7:29am Oct 19, 2012 7:29am
Quoting PipTrapper
added another position at 1.3047 after failure to retrace on high volume.

Target objective is 1.3020
smokey trading and LOL - I'm out too - I have the 38% retrace on my 60m at 3018 for partials - missed by a pip, so I got taken out by my tightened SL at 3027
Trading Levels with WRBs
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