EurAnalysis

now that would be a nice way to end the week

Chikened Out with 2 pips and closed my pervious short from 1.3088... Just don't like leaving my trades overningt when i'm not shure where it might go...

1.2800... Would be an early Christmas present...

Good Night, see you in the morning.

i like 60 as a min!

but prefer 100 and will look back a year for s/r if necessary,

which has been the case recently.

Good morning to all.

All that excitement, anticipation and hope for something substantial coming out of the EU summit has been dashed (as I expected). I won't go as far as saying that nothing was accomplished. In fact they did accomplish quite a bit as they pretty much raped and watered down the original plan to create a single supervisory mechanism (SSM) for the European banks. What was supposed to be a plan to implement the SSM for all 6000 EuroZone banks and optionally other non-Eurozone banks by January 1st 2013 has turned into a very watered down plan to meet again in December to formulate a plan to implement the legal framework required to set up a watered down version of the originally envisaged plan. In essence, Europe will not have an SSM by January, but rather will have a plan to implement a watered down version by sometime before the end of 2013. Keep in mind that direct capitalization of banks through the ESM cannot be done until the SSM is fully in force. With so much complacency and disagreement, I have a feeling that by the time the SSM is implemented, the ESM will be out of funds.

The other agenda item was the issue of Spain and Greece. Well nothing was accomplished there either except for releasing a joint statement about the situation in Greece. Even so, it doesn't say anything. In fact I believe that it casts even more uncertainty about Greece's future in the EuroZone. Here it is:

"We expect Greece to continue budgetary and structural policy reforms and we encourage its efforts to ensure swift implementation of the programme. This is necessary in order to bring about a more competitive private sector, private investment and an effective public sector. These conditions will allow Greece to achieve renewed growth and will ensure its future in the euro area."

Today, day 2 of the summit, if supposed to be focused on growth, employment and foreign policy. How much would you like to bet that the majority of time will be spent on the issue of foreign policy, and the growth/employment subject will be deferred till December? I see this summit as yet another disappointment. From deferring decisions to watering down proposals and issuing vague statements, it was hardly an exercise in confidence building. I suppose one could argue that instead of doing nothing, at least they met, talked, ate, drank, burped and flatulated. Hey that's about what the Greek finance ministry is doing to address their fiscal crisis, so I guess it's par for the course.

From a technical perspective, yesterday price action completed a Head & Shoulders formation on the H1 chart and managed to break the slightly tilted neckline which at the time came in around 1.3077. With a neckline to head spread of approximately 58 pips, that places the downside target to complete the pattern at approximately 1.3019. Price has already pulled back overnight to retest the neckline as resistance and it has held. So, provided that resistance holds into London Open, I expect to see price reach the 1.3019 target today. A break back above the neckline puts the formation in question. Otherwise, nothing has changed and we remain in a consolidation range between 1.3172 and 1.2802. Until I see a clear break and close outside this range, this pair has no mid term direction unless you use the weekly chart as a guide which clearly shows a bearish trend, a strong bearish hidden divergence and strong resistance in the form of long term falling trend lines, the 38.2% retrace of the fall from the 2011 highs to the 2012 lows, and the 78.6% retrace of the 2012 hi/lo range.

As always, be well, trade safe and have yourselves a great weekend. Going forward, I will most likely not be posting my outlook and forecasts on Monday mornings unless there are significant weekend developments to report. Don't forget to follow me on Twitter (@PipTrapper) for instant notifications whenever something new is posted in the blog as well as any other comments I may choose to tweet during the course of the trading day.

E/U H1:


E/U Weekly:

BOJ Gov Shirakawa just said something very dovish but I couldnt understand what - its in japanese

Watered Down - phrase of the day and of the summit

London openings have been really disappointing for some time now...

She's being very sneaky again...north bound into 31xx territory..

what a misserable Frankie close! Technicaly even with recent LL London opened inside yesterdays range

Looks like we will see HH before LL today

1.3050 option expiry around 1 billion, that's the reason for the move up. It's also friday

GM - overnight sellers in the 3075 area and now buyers in the 3050 area as noted by Pte Jackson at FXLive, so just trading the range.....EU Current Account data in 20 mins....

morning.. over the past 24 hours Oanda open positions are indicating the "short & wrong" crowd are starting to capitulated & some had flipped over to the "long & wrong" camp up here..
This scenario plus the shift in COT positions could tilt the odds for a major retrace or turn.. especially @ major tops & bottoms..
Over the S/T we may see a gradual reduction in underwater shorts bailing out at dips & an increase in underwater longs buying dips for 1.35 with Euro doing the Reverse Foxtrot toward 1.25..

DAMNED !

I took a short @1.3120 but i forget to cancel my automatic TP at 50 pips :/
So now I'm waiting for another opportunity to reenter in

Take it now, it's a good price as it may bounce again to 1.3070-80.
Or take partial

I'm flat for the moment, waiting for an opportunity to short.

I learned not to hold my trades for long time, you don't know when it will go against you, so I decided to always take partial or close the position and cash out. I feel better this way and I have my profit in my pocket

http://www.financialsense.com/contri...-hidden-menace

Extreme Symptoms & Hidden Menace



By Jim Willie 10/17/2012

In the process, the derivative machinery is straining, wheezing, and giving off burned oil smoke. The JPMorgan CIO strains have not gone away. Only the more vigorous accounting fraud has kept the strains, losses, and rot out of view. The priorities are clear. JPMorgan refuses to deliver Silver, choosing instead to steal accounts that seek delivery. Bear in mind that labor strikes and government confiscations are in high gear among gold mining firms in South America and South Africa. The trend bodes well for the physical Gold price, but bodes poorly for the mining stock share prices.

The Jackass forecast stands firm, that the physical Gold price will suffer a significant divergence from the corrupted paper Gold price dominated by the futures contracts, where naked shorting is the permitted normal practice. In time the COMEX will not sell Gold or Silver futures contracts, since no precious metal in inventory. Anyone who expects the Commodity Futures Trading Commission to enforce the law, obstruct the naked shorting, reduce the outsized uneconomic commercial short positions, and prosecute private account thefts, well, is a moron at worst and a fool at best.

http://imagesize.financialsense.com/...6-oct-2012.jpg

The Gold price has been doing important technical work for the last month. On the surface the price movement looks boring if not weak, with lost momentum. That is typical of the brief phase when consolidation takes place, while building the right side handle. The downside risk is to 1720 (daily basis) or 1750 (weekly basis), really no big deal. The recently announced and detailed QE3 initiative is incredibly bullish for Gold, providing the bull market the most wonderful fuel that is supercharged by the permanent 0% rate. The paper mache merchants who defend the indefensible broken USDollar are redoubling their naked shorting. It will not be enough. They must outlaw alternatives to the USDollar and force USTBond ownership. They cannot do so but they might try. Hence the Gold price will rise.

The extreme Gold price breakout will be fast powered by the realization of the QE3 arrival, its unsterilized nature, and its much greater volume than previewed. The keys are both lack of sterilization and outsized volume.

The USFed is fast running out of dry powder in USTBills, which means the bond monetization will be done with fresh money and not proceeds from sale. This is hyper monetary inflation of the worst order, akin to Weimar times. The volume of bond purchases within the QE3 framework will be between three and five times larger than announced. No rational bond buyers remain. Even the official bond dealers are facing extinction. See Cantor Fitzgerald, one of the biggest bond scum peddlers on the planet, a key accomplice for JPMorgan in the removal of both Enron fraud and USTreasury Bond fraud back in the dark days of autumn 2001. Their repository building fell in structural sympathy.


CurrencyMan:

I read the entire article and since it is all old news to me I decided to let anyone truly interested in discovering the truth to read it for themselves. The part that I include here in the open brings things to where they are.

How does this help you make money trading forex ?

Overall it does not however if you can change your mindset and have the desire to find out for yourself the truth then you will be able to see into the future and there is your edge.

Good Day To All Here !!!

Merkel:

Bank Supervision Will Be Built Up In 2013
EU bank oversight plan puts quality ahead of speed
EU bank supervision only step by step
EU leaders backed ‘solidarity fund’ idea
Greece has a ‘good chance’ in euro on implementation, and has made a lot of effort
More work is need though by Greece
No joint debt as long as there are national budgets
Euro-area debt ‘not appropriate’ now
Building up bank supervision takes time
EU bank oversight will require 200-300 staff and must be set up in cooperation with the EBA
Supervision needs to be of ‘good quality’
Number of banks that will be supervised is yet to be determined
‘We’ll see’ if Dec 31 oversight target is met
Draghi confirmed separation of supervision, policy
We will find a way to get bank oversight
Will assess Greece after seeing Troika report
Relationship with PM Samaras is ‘on a good path’ and happy to work with him
Discussed order on supervision with France’s Pres Hollande
German Bundestag will have to consider the banking supervisor and the subject of direct recapitalization of banks by the ESM
Periods of market calm are no reason for complacency
EU needs binding element of economic cooperation
The proposed ‘solidarity fund’ is not a matter of 5-10 years, will be similar to bank oversight
Important to exit the ‘crisis modus’

You know, IMHO you would really be better off not to sweat about the open positions of OANDAs books so much. Those positions are mostly the RESULT of general market movement NOT the CAUSE. Sure, at times of extremes, they cause perhaps 20-30 point moves when their orders are targeted by MMs but they do not CAUSE a 100+ pip movement. You will always see the retail being on the "wrong side" of the market but what you don't know is whether that direction will continue. Should the market reverse, so will the positions you see on the book. You need to figure out the FUTURE trade incentives and FUTURE orders not historical position ratios.

Same with COT. It can be good when anticipating an extreme (by targeting a squeeze) but it doesn't do much when you TRY to go with the flow because you never know when the trend ends. Not with the help of COT, anyway.


take care.