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  • #708,221
  • Oct 16, 2012 5:00pm Oct 16, 2012 5:00pm
Quoting attila
one of these levels have to fail for short: 3115, 3081. otherwise it's going higher.. The higher the better for the next short.. This one will be juicy.
Indeed , i thought i was gonna take a nap b4 the debate but now disturbed my nap
FX is a Bitc*h!, No one keeps me wake all night but FX does!!
  • #708,222
  • Oct 16, 2012 5:03pm Oct 16, 2012 5:03pm
Hmm.. OK.. Now it should do the victory dance here and then drop.

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  • #708,223
  • Oct 16, 2012 5:05pm Oct 16, 2012 5:05pm
Well....I guess the "crack pipe" I had yesterday was made of Crystal Ball material.

1.32 anyone?

I become more and more convinced that Price Action is the way to go. All of these giant charts with lines and resistance levels.....those are all made to be broken. (in my opinion)
  • #708,224
  • Oct 16, 2012 5:07pm Oct 16, 2012 5:07pm
Quoting QuantumLimit
Well....I guess the "crack pipe" I had yesterday was made of Crystal Ball material.

1.32 anyone?

I become more and more convinced that Price Action is the way to go. All of these giant charts with lines and resistance levels.....those are all made to be broken. (in my opinion)
Twas a good crack!
"Those who were pessimists, died quickly."
  • #708,225
  • Oct 16, 2012 5:07pm Oct 16, 2012 5:07pm
Quoting QuantumLimit
Well....I guess the "crack pipe" I had yesterday was made of Crystal Ball material.

1.32 anyone?

I become more and more convinced that Price Action is the way to go. All of these giant charts with lines and resistance levels.....those are all made to be broken. (in my opinion)
Of course they're meant to be broken. Otherwise we wouldn't go anywhere.. Point is, one has to know what it means when they're broken.
  • #708,226
  • Oct 16, 2012 5:07pm Oct 16, 2012 5:07pm
From doing some chart analysis, I see right around 1.3115 as the top for this pair before taking some more downward pressure.

I't will be interesting to see how Asia plays it though, my hope is that they do the dirty work before london.
  • #708,227
  • Oct 16, 2012 5:10pm Oct 16, 2012 5:10pm
Quoting attila
Of course they're meant to be broken. Otherwise we wouldn't go anywhere.. Point is, one has to know what it means when they're broken.
I don't mean to correct you good sir.

We don't need to know "what it means when they are broken".

All we need to know is which direction the chart will head next. I don't need news, or any fundamentals to help me make that decision....it's all right there....and lately it's all been viewable in the simple D1 and H1 charts....no fancy graphs necessary.

But again...I'm new.

I just happen to be having a pretty good year so far.

Keeping It Simple Stupid With Price Action
  • #708,228
  • Oct 16, 2012 5:13pm Oct 16, 2012 5:13pm
Quoting QuantumLimit
I don't mean to correct you good sir.

We don't need to know "what it means when they are broken".

All we need to know is which direction the chart will head next. I don't need news, or any fundamentals to help me make that decision....it's all right there....and lately it's all been viewable in the simple D1 and H1 charts....no fancy graphs necessary.

But again...I'm new.

I just happen to be having a pretty good year so far.

Keeping It Simple Stupid With Price Action
I am really sorry to ask, but if you have been having a good time for the past year what makes you wanna come to this shit hole now?..
FX is a Bitc*h!, No one keeps me wake all night but FX does!!
  • #708,229
  • Oct 16, 2012 5:13pm Oct 16, 2012 5:13pm
You are new and you are wrong.. You had a good year, then keep it up. There is no one thing that will make you successful. It's everything.. PA/s/r/news/fundies etc.. PA is a must but it alone will not do. I can show you multiple instances where the PA will fool us.. Anyway, GL to you.
Quoting QuantumLimit
I don't mean to correct you good sir.

We don't need to know "what it means when they are broken".

All we need to know is which direction the chart will head next. I don't need news, or any fundamentals to help me make that decision....it's all right there....and lately it's all been viewable in the simple D1 and H1 charts....no fancy graphs necessary.

But again...I'm new.

I just happen to be having a pretty good year so far.

Keeping It Simple Stupid With Price Action
  • #708,230
  • Oct 16, 2012 5:14pm Oct 16, 2012 5:14pm
Quoting QuantumLimit
I don't mean to correct you good sir.

We don't need to know "what it means when they are broken".

All we need to know is which direction the chart will head next. I don't need news, or any fundamentals to help me make that decision....it's all right there....and lately it's all been viewable in the simple D1 and H1 charts....no fancy graphs necessary.

But again...I'm new.

I just happen to be having a pretty good year so far.

Keeping It Simple Stupid With Price Action
if it works, nobody has an issue with it. I commend you for finding a system that works for you. But when it doesn't work, it is all about risk management to make sure you don't lose everything you made, and more..
Even the worst trade can close with profit. Just give it time.
  • #708,231
  • Oct 16, 2012 5:14pm Oct 16, 2012 5:14pm
Quoting akedemik
From doing some chart analysis, I see right around 1.3115 as the top for this pair before taking some more downward pressure.

I't will be interesting to see how Asia plays it though, my hope is that they do the dirty work before london.
It was 1.33xx early this year and 1.48xx early last year.....
  • #708,232
  • Oct 16, 2012 5:15pm Oct 16, 2012 5:15pm
Quoting Avir
I am really sorry to ask, but if you have been having a good time for the past year what makes you wanna come to this shit hole now?..
rude
Even the worst trade can close with profit. Just give it time.
  • #708,233
  • Oct 16, 2012 5:17pm Oct 16, 2012 5:17pm
Quoting John Gray
rude
SORRY. just wanna to make a point
FX is a Bitc*h!, No one keeps me wake all night but FX does!!
  • #708,234
  • Oct 16, 2012 5:18pm Oct 16, 2012 5:18pm
Quoting DudeSepii
Just follow the trend.....safer that way.
I agree.
Love for all; Hatred for none.
  • #708,235
  • Oct 16, 2012 5:24pm Oct 16, 2012 5:24pm
Quoting attila
Hmm.. OK.. Now it should do the victory dance here and then drop.

Attachment

GBPCHF hit 3 month old target... usdchf had a stop hunt... all ladies broke resistance... if there was going to be a trend change on low volume, now would be the time.

A low risk trade might be good here for a short.
  • #708,236
  • Oct 16, 2012 5:34pm Oct 16, 2012 5:34pm
hmmmm...
Long 1.3087
TP 1.3150
Mediu Margin used

kids, donīt try this at home...

SL 1.3040
  • #708,237
  • Oct 16, 2012 5:39pm Oct 16, 2012 5:39pm
Quoting Avir
I am really sorry to ask, but if you have been having a good time for the past year what makes you wanna come to this shit hole now?..
Conversation while staring at charts and working from home?
  • #708,238
  • Oct 16, 2012 5:42pm Oct 16, 2012 5:42pm
Minimum -4% monthly

you better go back to your familiy bussines
be carefull dont mess it.
walker.


JackintheBox


Ok, I'm half pro statistical analyst. Your systems works with huge drawdowns.

(example: Sell 1.28984 Buy 1.28775

Oct 3, 2012 8:38am)

Entry: 1.28984 Max Drawdown: 1.3071 (about -180 pips)
You entered 4 positions. This is a drawdown about -720 pips.

Then you entered more trades on 5th oct. at about 1.3016 : Drawdown 1.3071 (about - 55 pips). You entered 5 positions. This is a drawdown about -275 pips.

At peak you were down about -1000 pips.... at 10/05/2012... open 8 positions. If market would have gone 100 pips more you would be down -1800 pips...

As I can see you use some kind of grid for entry (if drawdown gets bigger to cover losses quicker) (or trendanalysis if no open positions) and marketanalysis (turning point analysis) for getting out.

------------------------------------ ------------

Ok here are my result for you:
If you consistently open positions with the biggest position you have there will be a phase once or twice a year where you will be down about (asume 10 days: 700 pip move, 3 positions per day: 10*350*3= 10500 pips).

This means your net loss (drawdown) is about -10500 pips or twice (-21000) pips a year.

If You consistently earn about 30 pips per position per day.

This means your net win is about (250 days*3*30 pips = 22500 pips a year.

So your ration will be about 22500 / -10000 Pips or 22500 / -21000 pips.
-----------------------------------

The system is ok but not for institutional. The problem with your system is that a "one time event" can smash all your earns for the whole year or you are down immediately gains over a half year to cover.

You have to limit your loss. If you get a constant ratio of lets say 22500 pips a year and max lost of 5000 pips in a peak (max. hitting 2 to 3 times a year) you are in.... .

Overall well done. My analysis just meets intraday, not day to day, so I cannot give you a hint how to tweak it better. Nanningbob loves to trade that way but too risky for me day by day basis.
Fundamentals play huge role on day to day. That's the problem.

greets Jack

keep on, thanks for sharing !



Hakimi:
wowowowow excellent analysis, I can see some nice points in your posts, but I have an edge which will protect me against the events u are talking about, but as u said this system is for institutions and for the high worth individual with good money in accounts.

thanx a lot for supporting my posts with your valuable suggestions....u are added to my buddy list
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  • #708,239
  • Oct 16, 2012 5:45pm Oct 16, 2012 5:45pm
Quoting xandi
hmmmm...
Long 1.3087
TP 1.3150
Mediu Margin used

kids, donīt try this at home...

SL 1.3040
3140 looked a good place for me to TP and i did
FX is a Bitc*h!, No one keeps me wake all night but FX does!!
  • #708,240
  • Oct 16, 2012 5:45pm Oct 16, 2012 5:45pm
what i wrote on oct.11th:

a lot of resistance here but if we break through 2958 then next stop to 2992 after that 3045 which if it does may hit tomorrow before NY lunch session. If not Friday then Monday morning I know it is predicting the future. It is what my chart tells me. Enjoy everyone.. should make for good discussion, will read up on it tomorrow afternoon. JP

my chart confirmend but one day late,,,timing off a little bit,,need to work on in a little more.
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