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  • #3,781
  • Oct 12, 2012 4:53am Oct 12, 2012 4:53am
Quoting lovejoy80
As a guide to the TF's I focus on, from the start of September until yesterday here is a breakdown of the number of setups I've shared in the Trading Room (that have been triggered) for each TF.

M1 - 0
M5 - 0
M15 - 12 (15%)
M30 - 9 (11%)
H1 - 48 (59%)
H4 - 10 (12%)
Daily - 2 (3%)

Relatively small sample, but gives a flavour of the TF's I find my setups on.
Had some questions on pairs I trade FTB's on...

I split my pairs into groups as follows:

1. Majors :

EU, GU, AU, NU, UCAD, UCHF, EJ, GJ, AJ, NJ, CADJPY, UJ

2. Minors:

EAUD, ECAD, ENZD,
GAUD, GCAD, GNZD
EG, NCAD, ACAD, ANZD
CADCHF, CHFJPY, GCHF

3. Exotics:

EURSEK, EURNOK, EURSGD
USDMXN, USDSGD, USDDKK, USDNOK, USDSEK

4. Non-FX:

Gold, Silver
S&P, Dow, FTSE, Dax, CAC, Nasdaq
WTI / Brent (occasionally - don't have a great record with Oil).
Bund

As I mentioned on my 2nd FTB video I am pickier as a) I scroll down towards the LTF's and b) as the pair gets more exotic and thus less liquid.

For example, out of the setups mentioned in the previous post each category represented the following % of total setups.

1. Majors - 43%
2. Minors - 30%
3. Exotics - 8%
4. Non-FX - 19%

Lastly the split between SR FTB's and SD FTB's is 56% SR and 44% SD.
  • #3,782
  • Oct 12, 2012 5:05am Oct 12, 2012 5:05am
Quoting lovejoy80
Had some questions on pairs I trade FTB's on...

I split my pairs into groups as follows:

1. Majors :

EU, GU, AU, NU, UCAD, UCHF, EJ, GJ, AJ, NJ, CADJPY, UJ

2. Minors:

EAUD, ECAD, ENZD,
GAUD, GCAD, GNZD
EG, NCAD, ACAD, ANZD
CADCHF, CHFJPY, GCHF

.............
Hi LJ, i notice that you dont have ECHF in your list, is that because the SNB try to peg the CHF at 1.2 and the subsequent lack of volatility/movement?
No more DOH! trades
  • #3,783
  • Oct 12, 2012 5:30am Oct 12, 2012 5:30am
Quoting nonethewisa
Hi LJ, i notice that you dont have ECHF in your list, is that because the SNB try to peg the CHF at 1.2 and the subsequent lack of volatility/movement?
Yeah until very recently there was no volatility in this pair...it is starting to come back but it's still very choppy and susceptible to the odd rumour based whipsaw so I'm not overly fussed about looking at it right now.
  • #3,784
  • Oct 12, 2012 4:10pm Oct 12, 2012 4:10pm
Hi LJ,

I have this big, chunky area on silver. It seems to be a strong demand area. However, it seems it has also been tested once.

There's support @ 32.986, which was broken by the impulsive move and retested before it went back up.

Also, I see no clear place to place my stops.

Do you see anything special about this one or skip it?

Best.

JP.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #3,785
  • Edited 11:38pm Oct 13, 2012 11:22pm | Edited 11:38pm
Quoting jupiter_peak
Hi LJ,

I have this big, chunky area on silver. It seems to be a strong demand area. However, it seems it has also been tested once.

There's support @ 32.986, which was broken by the impulsive move and retested before it went back up.

Also, I see no clear place to place my stops.

Do you see anything special about this one or skip it?

Best.

JP.

Level redrawn correctly. There was a precise touch on that level on Sept. 26.

Actually taking a closer look, looking at smaller TFs, it sems that this level has actually being retested after a of couple S/R flips.

This is a very tricky one and worth some watch at the whole area.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Click to Enlarge Name: silver_m15_retest_12_10_2012.jpg Size: 74 KB
  • #3,786
  • Oct 14, 2012 10:29am Oct 14, 2012 10:29am
Hi all!
Wonderful thread!
I am new to trading SD zones.
So I have a question - correctly I find the demand zone?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #3,787
  • Oct 14, 2012 11:04am Oct 14, 2012 11:04am
Quoting RonaldinhoKuban
Hi all!
Wonderful thread!
I am new to trading SD zones.
So I have a question - correctly I find the demand zone?
I would say yes. But, and a big but. The thread starter don't prefer non USD pairs..... So it may or may not be valid in his books for a trade.
Riding the order flow
  • #3,788
  • Oct 15, 2012 12:59am Oct 15, 2012 12:59am
Quoting jupiter_peak
Level redrawn correctly. There was a precise touch on that level on Sept. 26.

Actually taking a closer look, looking at smaller TFs, it sems that this level has actually being retested after a of couple S/R flips.

This is a very tricky one and worth some watch at the whole area.
Yes the FTB has already occurred on this zone via the touch of the DP/SR at the edge as per your chart.

Given the size of the zone and thus multiple DP's + the source not yet tested I think there is a higher chance of some sort of reaction again that price going straight through, but I'd be looking for PA now.
  • #3,789
  • Oct 15, 2012 1:02am Oct 15, 2012 1:02am
Quoting RonaldinhoKuban
Hi all!
Wonderful thread!
I am new to trading SD zones.
So I have a question - correctly I find the demand zone?
This is a clear daily SR area so there would have been a demand exceeding supply imbalance in order for price to breakout above the SR.

So yes it is demand, but it's not one that I'd be trading as an SD zone for an FTB trade because it does not come close to showing the qualities I'd want in an FTB setup.
  • #3,790
  • Oct 15, 2012 11:03am Oct 15, 2012 11:03am
lovejoy80 and Binyamin, thanks for your answers!

Good demand was today GbpJpy, right?
And I'm waiting for EurJpy come to supply
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Click to Enlarge Name: eurjpy 15oct.jpg Size: 137 KB
  • #3,791
  • Oct 15, 2012 1:41pm Oct 15, 2012 1:41pm
Quoting RonaldinhoKuban
lovejoy80 and Binyamin, thanks for your answers!

Good demand was today GbpJpy, right?
And I'm waiting for EurJpy come to supply

I believe EJ met some previous supply along H1 resistance with a very precise retest I would say.

There was a decision point as to break previous support back in Oct. 8th.

As you can see on the m5 chart, price made a perfect entry inside decision point and backed off.

Very small SL for this trade.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eur_jpy_h1_FTB_15_10_2012.jpg Size: 74 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: eur_jpy_m5_FTB_15_10_2012.jpg Size: 68 KB
  • #3,792
  • Oct 15, 2012 1:57pm Oct 15, 2012 1:57pm
Here are two similar trades for GU and AU.

See how they brakout from resistance, make a retrace inside the DP area and go back up.

Notice how price went inside the white demarked area on GU. Also, notice how a second chance was given for this trade.

AU trade from the line chart.

Sometimes it amazes me how the market can be so precise.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: aud_usd_m30_decision_point_long_15_10_2012.jpg Size: 69 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: gbp_usd_m30_quasimodo_dp_15_10_2012.jpg Size: 84 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: gbp_usd_m5_quasimodo_retest_12_10_2012.jpg Size: 89 KB
  • #3,793
  • Oct 16, 2012 11:18am Oct 16, 2012 11:18am
Hi LJ,

There was a short today from hat chunky supply area + resistance.

I pinpointed the supply area (decision point) thru VLTFS, however price didn't quite respect the area. I am glad I placed my stops above resistance.

Do you believe that news was mainly responsible for this? Should we, in cases like this when there is news, trade with stops somewhat above/below decision point extremes( a bit wider stops)?

Thx in advance.

JP.
  • #3,794
  • Oct 16, 2012 11:28am Oct 16, 2012 11:28am
Quoting jupiter_peak
Hi LJ,

There was a short today from hat chunky supply area + resistance.

I pinpointed the supply area (decision point) thru VLTFS, however price didn't quite respect the area. I am glad I placed my stops above resistance.

Do you believe that news was mainly responsible for this? Should we, in cases like this when there is news, trade with stops somewhat above/below decision point extremes( a bit wider stops)?

Thx in advance.

JP.
Oh yeah. Got also burnt by this setup.
  • #3,795
  • Oct 16, 2012 11:40am Oct 16, 2012 11:40am
Quoting jupiter_peak
I believe EJ met some previous supply along H1 resistance with a very precise retest I would say.

There was a decision point as to break previous support back in Oct. 8th.

As you can see on the m5 chart, price made a perfect entry inside decision point and backed off.

Very small SL for this trade.
Thanks for answer, jupiter_peak!
I need your help!
Wherever you are in this chart defined supply area?
Thanks!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: cadjpy 16 oct.gif Size: 30 KB
  • #3,796
  • Edited 1:24pm Oct 16, 2012 1:06pm | Edited 1:24pm
Quoting RonaldinhoKuban
Thanks for answer, jupiter_peak!
I need your help!
Wherever you are in this chart defined supply area?
Thanks!
I have prepared two charts on the m1 TF.

1st shows the supply area as a whole.

2nd shows the exact decision point or where price is still in balance and where imbalance is generated.

Hope this helps.

PS: I wouldn't put too much faith, besides maybe a quick scalp, @ that area because it would be second visit to the original supply seen on H4.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: cad_jpy_m1_supply_16_10_2012.jpg Size: 69 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: cad_jpy_m1_pinpoint_supply_16_10_2012.jpg Size: 72 KB
  • #3,797
  • Oct 16, 2012 4:07pm Oct 16, 2012 4:07pm
Going through my evening charts, I honestly have no idea how I missed this setup!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 437 eurusd m30.jpg Size: 79 KB
  • #3,798
  • Oct 16, 2012 4:44pm Oct 16, 2012 4:44pm
Quoting jupiter_peak
Hi LJ,

There was a short today from hat chunky supply area + resistance.

I pinpointed the supply area (decision point) thru VLTFS, however price didn't quite respect the area. I am glad I placed my stops above resistance.

Do you believe that news was mainly responsible for this? Should we, in cases like this when there is news, trade with stops somewhat above/below decision point extremes( a bit wider stops)?

Thx in advance.

JP.
The move occurred prior to news, I don't know why but CAD had a sudden move across the board. I didn't take this setup (though I was planning too) as the fast move caught me out - I would have either not taken it or reduced risk on it because I would class that move as impulsive.

I definitely wouldn't have taken a total loss on it after the half decent reaction (relative to the impulsive move) i.e. would have moved my SL to above the reaction bar high at least.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: ucad.gif Size: 35 KB
  • #3,799
  • Oct 16, 2012 5:06pm Oct 16, 2012 5:06pm
It was a day of bad decisions / missed opportunities for me today.

NZDUSD, missed the original FB and 15/30m BUOB. Was looking to enter on the 1m/5m FTB at 0.81257. Scratched the order for some reason.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #3,800
  • Oct 16, 2012 6:17pm Oct 16, 2012 6:17pm
We just had a nice impulsive move to break resistance in EURUSD. Just set a buy limit order at CP for the pullback entry (FTB).
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