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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #31,721
  • Oct 15, 2012 4:47am Oct 15, 2012 4:47am
Quoting Zac
Im not much of one for Technical Analysis but ive attached a pic here of a trend Ive been keeping an eye on. It is a daily chart and trend starts around April.
What are your thoughts on this descending triangle?
Seems nearly everytime 78 level is hit however that theres some strong buying going on.
I thought it looked like a falling wedge:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdjpy121015d1.gif Size: 26 KB


With SPX looking bullish for the moment, I'd be looking for this to break upwards with a lot of momentum. Difficult to trade on the daily, as it may or may not retest the trend line if it breaks. But handy for the lower time scale.
Gone to a better place
  • #31,722
  • Oct 15, 2012 4:49am Oct 15, 2012 4:49am
Quoting Zac
Broken to the upside?
Thats not the way a descending triangle works though is it. It'd be expected downside??
Although fundamentally im expecting upside movement.
There is often a problem with technical analysis of geometrical figures like triangles -so may see one thing, and other another. For example i can treat the movement to 84 for the begining of the year, and than fall to those levels as a wind vane which would indicates that it is bullish formation. So even seeing this descending triangle, i would rather trust breaking the trend line, which you can see here:

The first candle broken the trend line, and now the second one is confirming it, with hight volumen.
But the day closure would be more important, so i wouldn't rush with any conclusion.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #31,723
  • Oct 15, 2012 5:04am Oct 15, 2012 5:04am
Closer 4h chart - we can see how many thing happend if few last h!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 4h2.JPG Size: 200 KB
  • #31,724
  • Oct 15, 2012 5:05am Oct 15, 2012 5:05am
hi
i want to buy usdjpy from:78.55
tp:78.90
sl:78.26
good luck
http://www.8pic.ir/images/e9vg8p3w5jrflqm6fur.gif
  • #31,725
  • Oct 15, 2012 5:21am Oct 15, 2012 5:21am
It needs to break the 100 da ma,78.86 and 79.21 to get bullish in my opinion.
Its going to be tough going.
  • #31,726
  • Oct 15, 2012 5:28am Oct 15, 2012 5:28am
Anyone think 31 October will be a significant date??
End of fiscal year for Japan, and if its like 2011, some serious upside??
  • #31,727
  • Oct 15, 2012 5:29am Oct 15, 2012 5:29am
Quoting Haqu
There is often a problem with technical analysis of geometrical figures like triangles -so may see one thing, and other another. For example i can treat the movement to 84 for the begining of the year, and than fall to those levels as a wind vane which would indicates that it is bullish formation. So even seeing this descending triangle, i would rather trust breaking the trend line, which you can see here:

The first candle broken the trend line, and now the second one is confirming it, with hight volumen.
But the day closure would be more important,...
It doesn't really matter how you see it. It's just the break of a line. It's how you trade it that makes the difference.

It's worth noting that last week was very low volatility, less than half the 200WATR, which is already very low. These are break out conditions.
Gone to a better place
  • #31,728
  • Edited 5:56am Oct 15, 2012 5:30am | Edited 5:56am
Quoting Zac
Anyone think 31 October will be a significant date??
End of fiscal year for Japan, and if its like 2011, some serious upside??
I dont think they will intervene at these levels for fiscal year end.

Last year it was mid 75s so they were under a lot of pressure to pump the rate up for the exporters.

thats assuming it is still at these levels or higher at month end.
  • #31,729
  • Oct 15, 2012 5:37am Oct 15, 2012 5:37am
Quoting Zac
Anyone think 31 October will be a significant date??
End of fiscal year for Japan, and if its like 2011, some serious upside??
Thank you for that information. I did not know that.
Gone to a better place
  • #31,730
  • Oct 15, 2012 6:06am Oct 15, 2012 6:06am
Quoting brinks
I dont think they will intervene at these levels for fiscal year end.

Last year it was mid 75s so they were under a lot of pressure to pump the rate up for the exporters.

thats assuming it is still at these levels or higher at month end.
I cant confirm this via a source/refernece but from what I understand with all the currency debasing, ie Euro, USD, it has caused far more stress on the Yen than when it was at the 75 levels.
Having said that, when confidence comes back, I expect the Yen to lose strength rapidly due to funds leaving safe havens for riskier assets.
Watching the US Bonds/Treasuries should give some indication there.
  • #31,731
  • Oct 15, 2012 6:44am Oct 15, 2012 6:44am
- U/J H1 & M15:
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: UJ H1.png Size: 24 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: UJ M15.png Size: 16 KB
  • #31,732
  • Oct 15, 2012 6:51am Oct 15, 2012 6:51am
Quoting Ziko9o8
- U/J H1 & M15:
I wouldnt use technical analysis for USD/JPY. The BOJ meets on 30th October. The BOJ might buy foreign bonds in order to weaken the yen. This is how it works. BOJ buys European bonds in euro's. They must convert JPY into EUR in order to purchase the bonds. As a result you have JPY heavily sold and EUR being heavily bought. A classic FX intervention However, there is a ctach as the BOJ must change the law in order to allow such action to take place. We will see towards the end of the month
  • #31,733
  • Oct 15, 2012 6:55am Oct 15, 2012 6:55am
Quoting Roberto99
I wouldnt use technical analysis for USD/JPY. The BOJ meets on 30th October. The BOJ might buy foreign bonds in order to weaken the yen. This is how it works. BOJ buys European bonds in euro's. They must convert JPY into EUR in order to purchase the bonds. As a result you have JPY heavily sold and EUR being heavily bought. A classic FX intervention However, there is a ctach as the BOJ must change the law in order to allow such action to take place. We will see towards the end of the month
- Thanks Roberto for adding new info to us.

- Cheers.
  • #31,734
  • Oct 15, 2012 7:50am Oct 15, 2012 7:50am
Must of been some big sell orders at 78.86.

Is it going to break or reject that is the question.
  • #31,735
  • Oct 15, 2012 8:17am Oct 15, 2012 8:17am
Quoting Zac
I cant confirm this via a source/refernece but from what I understand with all the currency debasing, ie Euro, USD, it has caused far more stress on the Yen than when it was at the 75 levels.
Having said that, when confidence comes back, I expect the Yen to lose strength rapidly due to funds leaving safe havens for riskier assets.
Watching the US Bonds/Treasuries should give some indication there.

Hey zac

i didnt really get what you meant here i took it that because of the devaluation that has gone on the BOJ are likely to see the yen at these levels as bad as this time last year mid 75s
  • #31,736
  • Oct 15, 2012 8:22am Oct 15, 2012 8:22am
Quoting brinks
Hey zac

i didnt really get what you meant here i took it that because of the devaluation that has gone on the BOJ are likely to see the yen at these levels as bad as this time last year mid 75s
Yeah I probably didnt explain it too well. I havent looked too deeply into it, but the Yen is becoming over valued in comparison to other countries who are devaluing their currencies.
Also Debt to GDP is becoming a lot worse and financially alot of manufacturers are in a worse position than they were 1 year ago.
  • #31,737
  • Edited 3:07pm Oct 15, 2012 8:30am | Edited 3:07pm
Quoting Zac
Yeah I probably didnt explain it too well. I havent looked too deeply into it, but the Yen is becoming over valued in comparison to other countries who are devaluing their currencies.
Also Debt to GDP is becoming a lot worse and financially alot of manufacturers are in a worse position than they were 1 year ago.
Right yes i'm with you.

I'm still not sure the BOJ will intervene at this level.

Failure at 78.86 again is not good.
  • #31,738
  • Oct 15, 2012 5:28pm Oct 15, 2012 5:28pm
But still the trend line was broken to the upside on daily chart, volumen wasn't that small, let's see how it will handle 78.8x and 79.00-79.20 resistances!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #31,739
  • Oct 15, 2012 5:38pm Oct 15, 2012 5:38pm
Long @78.707 gunning for 78.797.
  • #31,740
  • Oct 15, 2012 10:16pm Oct 15, 2012 10:16pm
Now that we have everyone on board the long train... I think it's about time we make that attempt at the 76.5x level
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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