EurAnalysis

So if you enter at the right time, you don't have to work anymore.

Time running out for upside continuation with last week's failure to regain 1.30 while poking below the rising D1 channel with lower weekly highs.. may range for a while with side to down bias.. below 1.2850 could see a quick flush down to the 1.27 demand zone..

D1

!

General market conditions:
Flow change,
Fading the CB's liquidity floods.
It is always easy to analyze after the fact, 20/20 hindsight a piece of cake.
But we cannot trade the past, it is already in the market price structure.
There were a couple of articles this past week, main page, that claimed some quantifiable reductions in credit usage. The deleveraging occuring in the real world that CB action is attempting to counteract. Numbers combined betwen Europe and the US were about 6 trillion. (will not list the articles as the initial read did not trigger at the time a thought pattern of importance) So the memory is what is being worked with. (call it hearsay if one must)

But what am picking up on is two major possible shifts.
First is that the USD/JPY stabilizing, and even to the point that the USD is starting to return as a reserve currency. The weakness in Euro and GBP against the USD did not trigger a strengthening of the JPY against the USD as it had in the past.

Secondly is that emerging markets such as USD/ZAR have broken range and show a flow back to the USD. Deleveraging of credit is showing in commodity currencies as well as weakness in Gold and primary industrial commodities such as Copper.

Conclusion is that CB liquidity has run its course real world and that larger
mega trends are still intact. QE infinity and sovereign bond purchasing will probably not be enough to deter some deflation from pushing price.

Will continue to hold commodity crosses short. If the market does respond to new CB money creation, forcing stops or a discretionary exit, my strategic response will be to re enter by fading the market moves.

EURO/USD has not broken range as all efforts are being made to prevent the EURO from failing. So rather then fight the political decision that is behind this action, will keep the pair on the radar screen and trade it on a short term basis when CB's manage to distort the market as they continue to do in waves of intervention.
If a political change occurs and the EURO is allowed to reflect the market the ensuing selloff will be plain to see by all.

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Nice one PT I was looking for something to watch

why this entry here ???????

this thread is about eur analysis,

???

And the post is about EUR/USD... Right?

Weekend red wine effect?

Most likely yes.

trading for a living is not my goal. to me is a very limited world, i need more, i need leave the home and make something else too.
when i have the time for looking the markets all day, usually i need make a big effort to pursue perspective, to not losing the big picture.

it depends on you. you can choose to trade medium or longer term if u dont have the time for intraday trading.

Hey guys

Here is some good "off topic but on topic" reading I stumbled across this weekend.

http://hbr.org/2007/07/the-making-of-an-expert/ar/1

Enjoy

Wulf

How much time is needed to feel the market?

Nice stumble upon Wulf. A good read indeed.
Now it's time for me to practice taking profits

You have such pinpoint entries short my friend...gotta buy em back when you see those same zones and opportunities long

You know as well as I do these larger ranges(3072-2460) wont break until after the US elections are over... might as well catch the intermittent swings both ways...

10,000 hours brother

just like any other profession....

best

PT... what are your thoughts. Gold is dropping like a rock and the EUR still holds for now. How do you see those relating.

Back from holidays and what do I notice with the EJ pair - is this not a falling wedge indicating a reversal of the long downtrend on the monthly timeframe?

that was crazy ...i want to see the camera shot from the jumper....his perspective of the jump....