EurAnalysis

Suggest short euro aussie at 1.2685/1.27

I'll let him know the next time I chat with him. I'm sure he'll appreciate it. Cheers.

But what if audusd breaks the 1.015? This will drop 475 pips and can move the euraud higher.

Till next week trading session open. then we see what PA have for us.

In this year euro is everything... If euro goes up all euro pair up, if euro goes down all euro pairs down!!!

OR maybe just down from here, I cant read it very well now, but is better to be short at euro at all euro pairs now...

you're learning patience for waiting the best entry moment ou patience for waiting the TP?

Well actually both

I first placed a sell limit @ 1.2985 and was triggered to the pip ( I felt good )
then pulled back and again went higher than my sell limit but I decided not to close it in red and just waited until the drop (took partial). It's sometimes healthier not to watch the charts .

to me the most important is the first one. if you entered at the right moment, the price does not move much against you, it is easier to have the patience to wait the target.

sometimes i dont have that patience, like today when i opened the long, because i'm working at the same time and sometimes i dont have the time for seeing better, thats when i make bad entries, not in the right moment. what i need to learn is "dont look the markets when you are not focused in them! "

Well Gold is possibly going to break lows and at the low since last Friday but the Euro just keeps getting support and is in the middle. hmmm I see major divergence in the two PA. So much positive coming out of Europe these days. SMH such BS.

well said

Scalped AUD/USD Long from 1.0227
Closed @1.0247 at the 21smma on 5m chart and had crossed weekly pivot +20

Placed short @ 1.29745 around 61.8% retrace of October down move
Placed second short @1.29845 after point of interest @1.2990 was tested and failed.

Will leave open on weekend.

Still have open shorts from 1.3047 and 1.3026.
May the pips fall where they may!

Have a great weekend all!

No follow through, but as always it seems very deliberate that the previous supply zone was broken by .5 pips (AKA cleared). That tells me we are going higher next week anyway. Where to buy from? Not really sure yet



For a longer term view, I'm looking at it like this.

I agree with you. I was never in profit while i wasn't focused.
For me entry and exit points are complementary and most important thing trader has his trade planned

Technically i think the pair will keep bouncing off the 200 sma until it breaks the triangle and shoot up targeting 1.3286 then 1.3384 and then 1.3485 and will build an inverse HS, if neckline is broken then target would be 1.5 area. Otherwise if the pair breaks below daily 200 sma then 100 sma has to be broken to go lower targeting 1.2040 and 1.18 (long term)
Fundamentally I think it's bearish

Mark Whistler is a full-time trader and author. His books include 2034 - The Corporation - Post 2012 (March, 2009), The Swing Trader’s Bible (John Wiley & Sons, Inc. 2008), co-authored with Matt McCall, Trade with Passion and Purpose (John Wiley & Sons, Inc. 2006), Trading Pairs (Wiley, 2004), Profit from China (Investment U/Wiley, 2006) and Profit from Uranium (Investment U/Wiley, 2006.) His upcoming book is Trading Forex Volatility (co-authored with John Taxiarchos) and is scheduled for release in late April, 2009.

From time to time, Whistler can be seen on CNBC, while also contributing weekly to TradingMarkets.com and TheFXMarkets.com. Mark is the founder of WallStreetRockStar.com, FXvolatility.com and InstitutionalIndexResearch.com. In March 2009, Mark and three International partners launched fxWorldMarkets.com, developing algorithmic currency trading solutions for institutions and retail traders globally. Whistler also contributes educational articles to Investopedia.com, BabyPIPs.com and TradersChoiceFX.com. In addition, Mr. Whistler founded and operates EatsForTheStreets.com and MarkWhistlerGallery.com.

http://mediaserver.fxstreet.com/Repo...c0a25da2b7.pdf

Trader: Mark Whistler

Within Forex, there’s something professional traders call, “chasing indicators.”

Sadly, so many retail traders – with the mindset that trading Forex profitably is easy – fall victim to this destructive attitude and unfortunately, constantly find themselves behind the curve as volatility kicks in.

However, there is another way to trade.

In this special report, traders will learn why “chasing indicators” is such a losing game, while also seeing how they can begin putting indicators on their side to overcome destructive volatility that overwhelms most trader daily.

One Indicator with Three Kings to Assist Traders

Here, traders will also learn three important parts of the larger equation to becoming profitable. While the discussion on Multiple CCI Time Periods is not a “one stop shop” for completely understanding the larger universe of currency trading, using the indicator correctly can help traders when markets are offering little guidance.

http://www.fxstreet.com/education/fo...es/2012/01/20/

On March 13, 2012 I came across the above link. I posted some information about Mark Whistler in my previous post. His credentials are not in question.

Here is some snippets from the link above.

Please consider it and hopefully you will see forex in a different light. Enjoy your weekend and good trading next week.

Snippet One:

Perception is almost everything in trading for Mark Whistler: price, value, news, technicals,... are manmade perceptions. The key for the trade is then to “understands price relativity, and being able to align or separate his perspective with/from the unmanageable expectations of other market participants.”

Mark Whistler is a full-time trader and author of several books on Swing Trading, Trading Psychology and Volatility who investigated a lot the sentiment and news technologies in the markets. He believes that markets and news are inefficient by nature and “the only real way information technologies will assist the masses, is to help dissect information to make it more easily understandable.” Whistler thinks sentiment and gossips tools can be useful, but the traders have to consider them as noise that alert them to some sort of imbalance. His advice is “not to depend on the last post you just witnessed” but “look beyond the hype.” He foresees that “when technology-based-data-sentiment finally collides with effective processes to ensure efficacy and reliability, technology-based sentiment tools will win out.”

We also address issues like the existence of a Big Brother in the markets, contrarian trades, Google Trends or the creation of the US Dollar.

Snippet Two:

Does perception always lead the trader to wrong decisions?
The problem is that the average retail trader most often attempts to measure opportunity or risk within all of the above, via another set of manmade tools (i.e. technical analysis), which are really nothing more than another set of abstract perceptions tacked on top...

Furthermore, much like the true and accurate professional and academic calculation and context of value is relative only to perspective; retail technical traders who are not able to perceive price relativity beyond blind faith in the lines on their charts, are doomed for failure. We begin to see that the true cycle (for the technical trader who believes the abstract deterministic pattern matcher he downloaded this week - is pure truth) falls into a never-ending succession of guesses he calls trades.

At the end of the day, it is price that catches the deterministic trader who refuses to look beyond his red line crosses blue line perceptions (mindless abstract technicals), which are nothing more than a derivative of another perception (price), chasing a whole other set of perceptions (value and fundamentals), all influenced by another final set of perceptions: the unmanageable expectations of most market participants... All of which comes down to whether he perceives greed or fear from his/her flavor-of-the-week gimmick.

Snippet Three :

Do you have some examples of contrarian trades which are different from momentum based ones?

We can break down the Contrarian trades into four types...
Readers will note that I have excluded any mention of short-term technical reversal trading from the below list... Simple technical contrarian trading, merely for the sake of trading a reversal is a retail strategy. We won't forget 95% of retail loses. The short-term technical reversal trader who is not trading with larger concepts and information regarding order flow, is trading a losing game over the long haul.

Here are the four types of contrarian trades:
1. Pullback Entry

In an ascending trend - with significant signs of sustainability - it would likely be wise for a trader to wait for a pullback before entering long... In the case of a pullback, the trader must find the most opportune contrarian point to enter long within the shorter-term descent...
"The Constant Contrarian is often called The Stinky Ego because the saying on the floor is: 'Constant top and bottom pickers get nothing more than stinky fingers'..."

2. Mean Reversion
Short-term mean-reversion based upon institutional benchmark order flow risk management... Highly specialized method of quantifying volatility and probability, trading back to the mean in mass compression, risk-off uncertainty situations. (Most retail traders should not attempt...)

3. Paradigm Shift
Highly specific, well researched, justified, and quantified reversal entries... The paradigm shift contrarian is NOT a doomsayer or a "contrarian just to be a contrarian", rather has uncovered specific evidence citing reason for a reversal, has considered all other options, has constructed a trading plan for the pending reversal, while also considering all aspects of risk... The paradigm shift trader does not put on a contrarian position because his Stochastics are overbought at the most relevant Fibonacci Retracement.

4. The Constant Contrarian or The Stinky Ego:
Trading floors are crude; there is just no way around it... If you've spent time on a trading floor for any length of time, you know what I'm talking about... On the floor, constant (unfounded) contrarians are sometimes regarded to as Stinky Egos. Why? Because more often than not, the Constant Contrarian has no real justification for his reversal call, other than a feeling or some vague technical signal, which he will not disclose given that the signal is likely a joke in the first place... The issue is the constant contrarian always has his ego in front of his brain, and thus, can never see the situation clearly enough to understand that he is just being reckless and rash... The Constant Contrarian is often called The Stinky Ego (or a few other fancy names, which I cannot relay here), because the saying on the floor is: "Constant top and bottom pickers get nothing more than stinky fingers..." At the end of the day, being a contrarian, just to be a contrarian, is a losing strategy.

Snippet Four:

The moral of the story: For traders who act upon the rumor the car is going to spin lose... Traders who initiate the/their spin themselves, will likely produce better results.

What are the most powerful tools to create and/or change market sentiment?

M o n e y

Contrary to the generalized belief that money is a store of value, we see currencies fluctuating in value pretty much like a commodity. Could you explain the relationship between value and price of currencies?

Let's start with the US Dollar... What is the greenback? In essence, it is a trade-weighted "fiat" currency, constructed out of the value of nearly 20 other currencies, backed in "full faith" by the US Government. Until 1971-1972, the US Dollar was an "Index Basket" based on six major currencies from global powers around the world, constructed using an arithmetic mean. With the absolution of Bretton Woods, the dollar was then moved into a Trade Weighted Basket, and from then onward, constructed using a Geometric Mean.

Why?

Because a Geometric Mean artificially lowers the value of the currency over time. Which is exactly what has happened to the US Dollar ever since Bretton Woods was kicked to the curb. While the United States constantly gripes about China artificially devaluing its currency, perhaps it should look at the way our currency was covertly "remanufactured" for devaluation over time, but in a way that would look as if "the market" was/is the provocateur of such. Talk about the kettle calling the pot black...

Anyway, we understand currency is constructed in various different ways, and backed by commodities, or other currencies, or faith. Nevertheless, the substance making up the currency and the method in which such is calculated all influence the "value" of the currency over the long haul... Tack on economics and politics, and you're in for a ride. Moreover, as I have already mentioned before, value is a perception. The short-term wiggles, however.... The volatility... is pure perception.

CurrencyMan:

I have found that a good part of my success trading forex to earn my living is based on most of what Mark Whistler says.

I wanted to share it here in order for traders to have a chance to see trading in a completely different way.

I would look forward to a open discussion on this topic.

Enjoy your weekend and take time to smell the roses and be with your loved ones.

Thanks PT as always yoyr posts are absorbiing I will be re reading this post over the weeekend and following through with the leads
Fascinating
thanks
Mile

https://www.wellsfargo.com/downloads...e_10122012.pdf

Snippet:

September’s report contained revisions to both private sector and public sector employment.
However, it was the revisions to the public sector data that rightfully made headlines, as
government payrolls went from contracting by 28,000 in July and August to expanding by
63,000 jobs— net revision of 91,000 jobs. With the revisions, the back-to-back gain in
government payrolls in July and August mark the first two-month increases since April and May
2010, when the government added 478,000 jobs to assist with the 2010 Census. As expected,
these jobs were immediately cut in the following months in 2010. However, what was ignored in
the discussion of the reliability of recent payroll data, is the progress made by the public sector,
specifically state level governments, over the past couple of months. State budget situations have
come under control this year and tax revenues are beginning to firm, as total state tax revenues
passed its previous peak in second quarter of 2012. With state budget situations stabilizing and
the beginning of a new school year, it may not be unfathomable to see public sector employment
expanding, yet the speed of the turnaround did lead to a market surprise.

So Where Are We Now?

The employment data that have been subject to intense scrutiny over the past week are not wholly

unusual, but have raised vociferous skepticism due to the sensitive timing of their release.