EurAnalysis

all softwares do it. Even Esignal does it. If you change charts the trendline loses association exactly which bar it is connected to. If you use a 4 Hr to connect your trendline to and go to a 10 minute it will be off. right angle but still off. You have 24 ten minute bars in a 4 hour. It does not know which to connect to. That is why I always connect TL to 1 Minute charts. Esignal it is easy to do because you can really crunch up weeks into the 1 minute on a single chart. Not sure about MT4.

Aaah..slowly getting a feel for what you guys are saying..so for accuracy it's best to draw lines on shorter TF's first and move up instead of on higher TF's first and then dropping down. Ok, so for rough guides can draw on weekly/daily etc, but to ensure accuracy on smaller TF's it's best to check first and possibly redraw before trusting them. Got it!

i'm more comfortable with no dealing desks...
"The liquidity and pricing is dependent on what the market makers are offering." not what the fxcm dealing desks wants to give you.

The best is to draw TL on one time frame one window instead of switching. MT4 is not using grid such as latitude/longtitude as in GIS or satellite imaging application doesn't matter how many times you zoom in/out, the plot or markings don't shift.

At 10:15 PM the start of more activity...

Gold and the Dollar

Gold and Silver

A weak US employment report on Friday could have temporarily broken gold above resistance at $1800 by stirring up hopes/expectations of more Fed monetisation. As it was, gold held up well in reaction to employment numbers that weren't as weak as they could have been.

Gold remains below resistance at $1800 and has essentially moved sideways since the immediate reaction to "QE3". A spike above $1800 wouldn't surprise us, but a sustained move above $1800 is unlikely at this time. The gold market is now very 'overbought' on a short-term basis, as evidenced by the new 12-month high just registered by the total speculative net-long position in COMEX gold futures and the new all-time high just registered by the net-long position of small traders in COMEX gold futures.

$1700 is a reasonable target for a pullback.

Silver is in a similar position, having traded sideways since "QE3" day and being very 'overbought' on a short-term basis. The difference is that silver never reached intermediate-term resistance ($37.00-$37.50 for silver is the equivalent of $1800 for gold) and has greater short-term downside risk.

With or without a spike above the September high, silver's next correction will probably take it back to $30-$32.

http://www.speculative-investor.com/...ver_051012.gif




“This is a battle between the sellers of paper-gold and the buyers of physical gold. We know the paper-sellers are there because Comex open interest has exploded over the past several weeks.



This has occurred because the manipulators are attempting to contain all of the buying by the specs and hedge funds. But we also know that the physical buyers are there too because each time the shorts trigger a raid to try forcing prices lower, the physical buying picks up.



The upshot of all this is that the shorts are caught, at least so far. They have not been able to engineer the lower prices they are looking for to buy back their short positions and walk away with their profits like they have done so many times in the past. So the question becomes, what if they can't get the price for gold and silver any lower?



The shorts will need to buy back at whatever price they can to limit their losses. It is this panic buying that will launch the precious metals like a rocket when $1800 and $35 are finally hurdled. We have seen battles like this one many times over the past 12 years, Eric. Some of these battles have been fought even more fiercely than the current one, which means it could take a while longer to get the breakouts above $1800 and $35.



But readers have to remember that in the end, the physical buyers always win as evidenced by the fact that gold has risen 11 years in a row, and this year looks like it will be number 12. The reason of course is that there is far more paper-gold in existence than actual physical gold, which means only one thing: We could soon be seeing a massive short squeeze in gold and silver.”

Jim Sinclair’s Commentary
Many are asking what the term CIGA stands for.
The answer is "Comrades in Golden Arms." It is a term that refers to those in our community who are willing to take a stand against the Banksters and manipulators to protect themselves and those close to them.


Jim Sinclair’s Commentary
The Euro today at 2:08pm.
http://www.jsmineset.com/wp-content/...001_thumb7.gif

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...3&d=1350020136

It's not going anywhere for over 10 hrs, a bit of North East and South East.

Happy waiting all

May be price not going anywhere but descending TL's do The longer it stays here the more pressure it gets...

Who draws the TL

Good morning and happy Friday to all.

Indecision in the markets seems to be center stage right now. On one side we have the hopium addicts and on the other we have the doom and gloom pundits. In the short term, speculators are pretty much castrated as they wait for signals from political and large corporate leaders to shed light on where we are going. Politicians are resorting to throwing stones at each other. It's all too confusing for traders and certainly extremely misleading for the average joe plummer. Even the rating agencies cannot agree on which fiscal and monetary policy decisions are best. Look at Spain as a perfect example. S&P downgraded Spain by two notches from BBB+ to BBB- (One level above junk) and the markets are taking that as a signal that Spain will now be forced to apply for aid. As a result, the Spanish bond markets were spared from the raping I called for yesterday. However, here is the confusing part... Moody's has said that if Spain applies for aid, then they will downgrade the sovereign to junk. Junk you say? For applying for aid? Yes Junk. Wow!!! The conspiracy theorists are going to have a field day with this. I can see how they would believe that the rating agencies have joined politicians and central banks in their campaign to manipulate markets via verbal diarrhea. If that's the case, it's working... for now.

Speculators have been told, with no uncertain terms, that if they dare attack the weaker sovereign bond markets (Italy, Spain etc.), the ECB will give them a thrashing they will not soon forget. So most of these speculators have been sent to their corners and some calm in price movements has returned to the markets. The Euro has stabilized in a rather small range (under 400 pips) and the hopium addicts have decided that the Euro Crisis has been solved. So the end result is that the lemmings are being lulled into buying the dips and then the large speculators are hammering them by selling the rallies. This is not a pretty picture for position traders like me. Perhaps now is a good time for a long deserved vacation. The good thing is that any day traders who recognize what is happening here can take advantage and clean up trading this seesaw both ways.

A note of caution for all. What I described above only applies to speculators. What about real money? Where do they stand? The answer is quite simple. They stand mostly on the sideline and I can assure you that they are not going to jump on this band wagon. Rather they will be watching closely. In the end, as it looks more and more like Spain is going to turn into another Greece, that real capital will be flowing out of Europe like there is no tomorrow. If an application for aid by Rajoy does indeed result in Moody's downgrading Spanish bonds to junk status, most real money will have no choice but to pull any remaining capital they have in the region, and there is only one place I see that capital flowing. Good or bad, bright future or not, the safe haven of choice is the USD.

Technically, nothing has changed since yesterday. Resistance comes in at 1.2950/60 followed by 1.3000 the figure. Beyond that we get 1.3025 and last week's high of 1.3070. To the downside we once again have 1.2925 area followed closely by 1.2900/10. Below that we see more support at 1.2870/80 and 1.2825 before the key and all important major support at 1.2800 the figure.

As always, be well and trade safe.

Pete Jackson's Order Board:

EUR/USD: Bids 1.2900/10, sell stops below ahead of more bids 1.2880/90 with more sell stops on a break and through 1.2850. Further bids down at .1.2825/35 (200 day MA 1.2825) sell stops below). Offers 1.2940/60 (1.2948- 50% fibo of 1.3072-1.2834) and larger up at 1.2980/00

Today's Euro FX Option Expiries @ 14:00 GMT:

EUR/USD: 1.2820, 1.2875, 1.2950, 1.3000, 1.3100

E/U H1:


E/U Daily:

TL's GOD draws these..

mm - I guess you left a limit order at the 50% retrace.....my signal was at 2943, but then I banked some pips before I went to bed and just sold again in the same area.....

Edit: the 61.8 retrace at 2968 is now in play - will I get an add-on here......TWT

hope everyone protected themselves.... pierced the 65... shorts are invalid for me until the 2985/90 is tested with a confirmed rejection

Waiting to short from 1.2980-1.3000.

FXLive: EUR/USD has rallied quickly, presently at 1.2965. Talk is BIS has stepped in buying.

Europa Press writes that Spain is to decide on a bailout once the ECB decides its full details.....

mm....looks like a test of the 3000 area again...

just wait for PA up there to confirm it....

in my last post i leave you with this...

s & p downgrade was part of a coordinated effort to force spain to accept bailout, which they will.

dollar will sink, us markets will rally and obama will be re-elected.

now it is time for me to seek out new pastures

all the best....

that comment would seem to agree with AEP's take on whats happening....from FXLive...
Spain keelhauled by Germany and AAA chicanery


As Gary Jenkins from Swordfish says this morning: Spain is junked if it does, and junked if it doesn’t.
A key reason for Standard & Poor’s two-notch downgrade of Spain to near junk last night is the refusal of premier Mariano Rajoy to bite the bullet on a rescue. His "hesitation" is "potentially raising the risks to Spain’s rating".
By contrast, Moody’s said earlier that it will cut Spain to junk if it DOES request a bail-out. What a marvellous mess.
Here is S&P’s rationale:

A severe and deepening economic recession that could lead to increasing social discontent and rising tensions between Spain’s central and regional governments;
A policy setting framework among the eurozone governments that in our opinion still lacks predictability. Our understanding from recent statements is that the Eurogroup’s commitment to break the vicious circle between banks and sovereigns – as announced at a summit on June 29 – does not extend to enabling the European Stability Mechanism to recapitalise large ongoing European banks. Our previous assumption was that official loans to distressed Spanish financial institutions would eventually be mutualised.

So there you have it. The decision by the AAA bloc of Germany, Austria, Finland and Holland to walk away from the June summit deal for direct ESM recapitalisation of Spanish banks (lifting the burden off Madrid's shoulders) has keelhauled Spain.
Yes, the AAA quartet now claim they never agreed to cover "legacy assets" or the mess left from the EMU bank bubbles of the Noughties (in which German and Dutch banks were central players). That is a very dubious claim.
The Council document circulated for several days and was discussed by key officials from all countries. The purpose was crystal clear: to break the vicious circle between banks and sovereigns. Everybody knew that it was intended to stop Spain spiralling out of control.
I have been assured by Council officials that the text was not changed in the small hours of the night. The leaders agreed to it, then discovered they could not sell the package to their own parliaments – especially the Bundestag – and are now wriggling out on a technicality.
No doubt it is difficult for a small country like Finland to resist the crushing peer pressure of EU summits, but that does not apply to Germany. It is hard to conclude that Chancellor Merkel has behaved in an honourable fashion.
Personally, I can fully understand why the German people do not wish to be led by the nose into a fiscal union (or a backdoor version called a banking union) that is not properly accountable to any elected body and would ultimately eviscerate German democracy. Indeed, Germany should have no part of this constitutional leap in the dark.
However, if Germany is going to pursue that course, it must face up to the consequences. It must accept that EMU has fundamentally failed and should not be saved.
It must prepare for the least traumatic way to break up monetary union, which is the withdrawal of Germany and its satellites from the euro.
As we have all discussed many times on this thread, that would allow the south to keep the euro and to uphold their euro debt contracts. The Latin euro would fall to an equilibrium value.
The D-mark bloc would have a huge stake in pegging their currency to the euro for a while to prevent an exchange rate overshoot and huge losses for their own banks and insurers.
Once the dust had settled, the Latins et al could carry on together under French leadership or, if they chose, restore their historic currencies without the risk of spiralling devaluation.
The problem is that nobody is willing to grasp the bull by the horns, least of all the French. Nobody can bring themselves to accept that the status quo is deeply destructive, and the euro not worth saving. The crisis drags on and on, and as the IMF said this week, the lasting damage from failure to act is rising all the time.
The AAA volte-face is perhaps the most shocking chicanery, deception, and cowardice that I have seen over the 20 years or more that I have been writing about Europe’s affairs (on and off). The EU has broken its word to the markets. The Latins feel betrayed. So do the Irish. There will be deep consequences, even if these are not obvious at first.
There have been worse outrages from the EU of course, though of a different kind. The decision to relaunch the European Constitution in dressed-up form (the Lisbon Treaty) after it had already been rejected by voters in France and Holland was a disgrace. Then to override a fresh rejection by voters in Ireland – the only country to hold a referendum – was unforgivable.
Chancellor Merkel was the driving force behind the Lisbon Putsch. It was the Kanzleramt that cooked up the revival plan and pushed it through. France’s Nicolas Sarkozy went along with it – shamelessly – for his own motives. The acquiescence of the Dutch government was pitiful. As for Gordon Brown’s refusal to be photographed in the same room in Lisbon signing the treaty, well, what can one say?
As is now obvious, the Lisbon Treaty solved nothing in any case. Europe’s governance is as dysfunctional as ever.
So to those German readers who think I am too harsh on Berlin, my answer is that your leader – while a paragon of democracy at home – has been the arch-exporter of anti-democratic and authoritarian excess on the European level.
Yet having pushed relentlessly for "more Europe", we can now see all too clearly that Germany will not in fact accept the implications of "more Europe" when push comes to shove. So we have a disaster.
The sooner Germany outgrows its schizophrenia on Europe and takes its full place as a flourishing, proud, and democratic nation state – as it deserves – the better for all of us. "Less Europe" would a splendid development.
With that off my chest, here is a some more on the S&P note.

Spain is enduring a severe and, in our view, deepening economic recession as reflected in our real GDP forecast of -1.8% in 2012 and -1.4% in 2013. The pace of private sector deleveraging, together with the government’s budgetary consolidation measures, is likely to lead to an even deeper contraction of investment and consumption in both the public and private sectors.
Since 2008 the policy responses from Europe’s monetary and political authorities have not, in our opinion, been effective in permanently reversing the tight financing conditions faced by large parts of the Spanish private sector. While lending rates have declined in recent months for blue chip corporate borrowers, small and medium sized enterprises (which employ 76% of the national workforce) are paying average interest rates of 6.6% as of August on borrowings up to five years, versus 4.8% in 2009. In our view, the shortage of credit is an even greater problem than its cost. According to data published by the Banco de Espana, loans to nonfinancial domestic enterprises have declined by €161 billion from the end of 2008 through August 2012. We estimate this to equal about 15% of GDP.
Overall, against the backdrop of a deepening economic recession, we believe that the government’s resolve will be repeatedly tested by domestic constituencies that are being adversely affected by its policies. Accordingly, we think the government’s room to manoeuvre to contain the crisis has diminished.

One has to feel sorry for Mr Rajoy. Having agreed to stringent terms on Spain’s bank rescue only to be shafted on the ESM, it is understandable that he is very reluctant to submit to fresh terms on a sovereign bail-out only to face treachery a second time.
Judging by comments from his team, he hopes to muddle through on the mistaken assumption that "speculators" will not dare to short Spanish debt as long as the ECB stands in the wings waiting to crush them.
If this were a story of speculators, such a strategy might work. Spreads would stay low. But that is not the story. The risk for Spain is that "real money" investors such as sovereign wealth funds, central banks, pensions funds, insurers, etc, will take advantage of the lull to extricate themselves from Spain at reduced loss.
If that happens – and the IMF gave a very broad hint that this is exactly what will happen – the spreads will creep back up, with knock-on effect for Spanish companies. Each month of delay traps Spain deeper in depression.
But feeling sorry for Spain is perhaps not the right emotion. The country can at any time restore control over its own destiny by leaving the euro. It comes down to cojones.