Chicky's Trading Method Viewer

Above 27 good, above 36 ideal

Got 26.9

That means cannot go to bed unless I see London open

Checked pa on different screen. All except one timeframe point north, but the issue is daily points much higher than 1.3100.

Going back to my main computer to recheck.

Changed my mind. Will check in the morning. It's too cold outside my tent and my attendant is busy with a camel in labor. Hope delivery goes well.

Booked some
Sl at BE.

Nothing is ever definite, it's always a chance. It could hit either green or white line.

Thinking in terms of probabilities and Money Management is the name of the game.

Shorting for few pips.

Went short bit too early. Covered at almost BE

I like my Non-cumulative Return graph in the trade explorer above. It is now getting pretty consistent with controlled risk

It's going down. Shorting

I'm looking for a 1.27xx level here. Then we can go higher. Wasn't expecting the overshoot at 1.298 today. Cheers

BE

If it gets 1.2927

If it wasn't Friday, would have entered a long here.

Looking at the Daily, it wants to attack 1.35000.

Will be watching how deep this handle forms.

Chicky is Serious

Not exactly $16,000 but pretty close.

OK. The current balance of $15,579 becomes the new base to see where we get from here.

Yes, He is
The target is to grow this account to $1m. I will be taking similar trades on one of my real accounts and will also post real account explorer once this practice account gets to $1m. You all will be able to compare this account with the real account. I am not creating an explorer for my real account only because of security concerns. However, will post the results here, once this demo account gets to $1m and I have withdrawn my money from the real account. I think this is fair enough.

He still is
Writing basic principles, method and rules of Chicky's Trading Method. After some editing, will be posting sometimes tomorrow.

Still
As I mentioned, I intend to continue this thread as long as I can. I am pretty sure this thread will not face the same fate that all "$xx to $xxxxxxx" threads you saw on FF. I have a real account to paly with and we are talking about some serious money.

So far yes, still
My advice to traders who are still struggling will be to follow this thread and may like to risk a small amount of $100 or so. I will try my best not to let you down.

I always wanted to do something legendary here on FF. I think, this is the time.

He still looks serious
I want many things in return but not from you, but from my Karma. My success is your success. There is no option but to succeed.

Oh shit, Chicky is really serious. God bless us all.

Basic Principles of Chicky’s Trading Method
If trading edge is the probability of more positive outcomes in long-run, one should be ready to accept a series of negative outcomes. Many inexperienced traders do try to maintain capacity of absorbing consecutive losses, but normally not more than 10 to 12 or maybe few more.

Despite knowing how my edge works, I still feel depressed after getting more than two losses in a row - human nature.

I am not sure about other threads, whenever on EURUSD thread; even a few pip change in PA direction creates havoc among traders. Some relaxing their TPs and others getting out or partially closing trades, shouting in excitement, revising their plans by hundreds of pips on a 10 pip but sudden move, etc. etc. All indicating that they are either not aware of or do not accept volatile nature of forex market.

Their brains can be easily polluted and thoughts manipulated with any kind of BS that is convincingly presented. They do not want to look at the things from their own perspective and test at least logic in what is presented before them. They want to "believe" in and do not want to consistently "test" any new or old idea. It took me several years to believe that there is some truth in "trend is a friend". However, see many traders blindly following this phrase. Another is "cut your losses down and let your winners run". Blindly following such "universal truths" is probably the greatest hindrance in their learning.

Then there are "holy grail" methods. I spent hours and hours, day after day, month after month and year after year to find a flaw in various gambling and speculative businesses. Believing that there should be one and that would give me a risk free edge. But this thought never ever crossed my mind that I should check if someone is selling a "holy grail". Why? Because a "holy grail" is simply not something that one would put on sale, and by whom? A trillionaire? But it is unbelievable that many traders spend thousands to buy and try such BS systems. If any automated or mechanical system can work the way new traders perceive, there would have been no markets by now.

Then there is a calculator, a certain percentage and certain number of trading days. 1% a day and 365 days a year makes it 365% a year. Discount it for working days and contingencies it comes to 150% a year- Wow! Compare it against investment return by banks, and boom - here we go! Once this is conceived, the next step is to check in how many days, weeks, months or years a $5,000 investment will multiply to $20 million and more………. probably $200 million. Apply some sensitivity analysis by changing certain assumptions or percentages and we get $200 million in 8 years from an initial investment of $2,000 in a micro account. This does not stop here, on trading live, these years get converted to days and days get converted to hours at a leverage of 1:400 and with almost nothing or lunch money to lose.

Then there is a small loss, next position is bigger than previous. Again a loss and again even bigger position after a few minutes. Again a loss, but no issue. Here comes a "once in a lifetime trade" with almost 100% assurance. The whole farm (or whatever is remaining) goes off.

Decide what you want to do, calculate risk and reward, wait, wait, wait and wait for the opportunity. It may appear and disappear without giving you an entry chance. Again wait, wait, wait and wait. When you find the right opportunity, enter and sit tight until the trade concludes. Repeat this several times. If you are not willing to take reasonable amount of risk, cannot wait, do not believe in your analysis, cannot stop keep changing your mind with every few pip move against you, and are a pussy cat - wear a tie and a coat, take early morning bus to go and work in someone else's office for next 50 years. Don't waste your time and energy on something which you are not serious in achieving, and that is, make millions.

Have an Edge.

The edge means a “Method” or a “Result of Analysis” that puts traders in advantageous position in such a way that odds are in their favor if their analysis is right or their method is sound.

An edge can be a conclusion regarding market’s future direction after analyzing fundamentals or it can be a technical method that is likely to yield profit over a certain number of trades. The profit is net result of gains and shortfalls, so is a loss.

There can be three situations setting Risk/Reward ratio:

1. Risk less than Reward (This will require less number of winners than losers to break-even for an specified number of trades let’s say 100)
2. Risk equal to Reward (This will require equal number of winners and losers to break-even)
3. Risk greater than Reward (This will require more winners than losers to break-even)

Although all these three should work, I will be using number 1 above for a variety of reasons.

YOUR EDGE IS VERY SMALL AND THEREFORE DO NOT LOSE IT. Your edge is good only if it is applied consistently. You may lose your edge if its application is not consistent.


Understand Market Behavior

Overwhelming fundamental factors trigger a big move in one direction, either up or down. Market takes breath at next support/resistance level, shows some retrace and then again continues in that direction. It repeats this process until a particular price level; generally a historical long-term support/resistance is hit. This whole move is termed as a Trend.

A trend moves market from point A to point B. The pa never gets to point B in a straight line, but in wavy patterns with several ups and downs in between. Each one of these ups and downs are of varying lengths. Some big some small.

Some traders take chance on bounces at key support resistance levels because they know there would be a lot of buying and selling at these points and market moves in either direction before it finally breaks that support/resistance.

Some traders take chance of support/resistance break because they know if that support/resistance is taken out; the pa would aim at next key support/resistance.

Some traders take a chance on a significant retrace at certain key levels, normally near certain levels of immediately preceding trend (various fib levels).

Some traders use these key support/resistance level to build their long term positions

And there are many other traders that use these support/resistance levels for a variety trading tactics.

I generally take a chance on bounces because experience tells me that most of the time it takes several attempts for the pa to break a support/resistance.

If trading gives stress, there is something wrong with Money Management.

Money Management is the easiest lesson this market teaches to traders …………. but in a very hard way.

After losing several accounts and after doubling many accounts in this market, I can say that the greatest lessons I learned is KEEP YOUR POSITIONS SMALL.

I always achieved quick and significant account growth when my positions were small. Subsequently, I did a research on this strange outcome and wonder at the long list of its benefits.

How small a position? 1% risk per trade is small. Small enough that a winner gives some joy and a loss does not matter much. Trading for me is always a joy and never a stress.

I tried many other methods aiming at optimizing money management but found the above most effective.

Think twice before you leap and wait for the right time

The fourth lesson this market teaches a trader is to enter/exit a trade at the right time AND at right price level.

Like all other lessons learned, this lesson also has a history of research and great pain behind it.

This market is very volatile. Sometimes we know why it is moving in a particular direction. But many times, it moves, retraces or bounces back without giving a single clue about the factor responsible for such market movement. Deciding to trade or not to trade such moves is what separates gamblers from traders.

This lesson is directly connected with the first lesson we learned, that is, our edge is very small and if we take trades that do not fall within our set-up, we will lose this edge. Such trades will also cause some discomfort and that too is not learning from our lesson number 3 (Money Management).

A good business consultant will tell you why many businesses fail. The primary reason of such failure is the inability of businesses in identifying and managing their risks. Poor performance is when a business cannot identify and control risks that could have been identified with reasonable effort, but hard luck is a situation when they don't get a chance before something coming out of blue hits them hard.

Speculative businesses are high risk businesses; only a fool is expected to ignore risks in this business before taking a position.

This is all about "How much you are willing to lose for a chance".

Take your chances at calculated price, but don't forget to jump at the right time.

Even the strongest, most furious and fastest predators target only the lame, weakest and slowest prey. They preserve and maintain their edge.

1. How it started

It all started in 1978 on reading one of the Dale Carnegie's books mentioning a person who never lost in the stock market. My father was a book-keeper in horse racing and among few others my family also owned a small casino which was my favorite place to hang around in the evenings. Being on the other side of the trade (a book-maker with a definite edge) it was unbelievable to learn that one could always gain in stock market without having a definite edge. If that was true, that meant all our speculative businesses were exposed to a risk which we were not aware of. To know more, I started taking interest in stock markets. This is how a planned research in speculation business started.

2. The research (Part A)

In the next 20 years, on and off, continued searching if it was possible to consistently win without losing. The research covered horse racing, casino games (especially roulette and dice), sports betting, commodity and stock market operations, forex market, lotteries and some local forms of gambling that are not very common.

This research first focused on statistical / mathematical tools. This interest led me to complete my graduation in business studies and then professional qualification (CPA). The outcome was very simple: One cannot make odds in his/her favor with any statistical tool. First phase of research was complete.

In the second phase, looked for a flaw in design of a speculative subject / gambling play to benefit from such flaws using statistical tools. The basic concept was that since these are all man-made and man is not perfect there may be a flawed game somewhere. Did a lot of research on design of several game boards and payouts. Found no flaw in any of the recognized games. Every board is balanced no imbalance anywhere. However, found flaws in a lottery (that has now been rectified) and in one side-track betting on state prize bonds. Could not benefit from the flaws in lottery but earned some money for about one year from that side-track betting.

The lottery was flawed because accumulated jackpot reserve (unpaid amount from previous draws available for first prize) grew to such a level that it exceeded cost of buying all combinations. You buy all combinations for $7m and surely get first prize of $21m. If there is one more Jackpot winner you still get $10.5m.

The other was in a way selling insurance to book-makers who wanted to hedge their exposed positions for a cost. But I sold this insurance pretending to be a punter and not as insurer, knowing that they would never agree to buying insurance.