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$100 trading

  • #61
  • Oct 6, 2012 7:10pm Oct 6, 2012 7:10pm
Quoting Turveyd
If you increase your start position size when you have 7000 then you might need 50k in reserve to last through such a move. Your value is always account + reserve. I tried to cheat the markets with maths and gave up.
this is what I believe too.

you will always have a tiny trading account compared to the money in reserve in anticipation of a crash, so your ROI percentage over your trading account + reserve will always be low.

dreamliner mentioned knightrider on Oanda and I read his system and he rode out the 2008 crash without having money in reserve.
in the good times he doubled his account every year and I believe his system is better.

I`m just trying to help. maybe something to look at?
  • #62
  • Oct 6, 2012 7:16pm Oct 6, 2012 7:16pm
Quoting yonnie
this is what I believe too.

you will always have a tiny trading account compared to the money in reserve in anticipation of a crash, so your ROI percentage over your trading account + reserve will always be low.

dreamliner mentioned knightrider on Oanda and I read his system and he rode out the 2008 crash without having money in reserve.
in the good times he doubled his account every year and I believe his system is better.

I`m just trying to help. maybe something to look at?
If I had any money, which I don't, then I'd have the required Min in the account to trade what I want and a money in the bank incase I blow that, broker goes under bla bla bla.

No point having 100K in the account then trading at $10 per pip, $1000 margin requirement for that and say 200pips in the account so $3000 account, risking 10% on the account per trade, but say 2% over all.

And if you have a BAD week and blow the account, no biggy, and it gives you some cooling down time while more money gets moved over.
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #63
  • Oct 7, 2012 10:51am Oct 7, 2012 10:51am
Quoting Tarusmark27
Thanks to share your trading plan with us. I will follow it. I hope, it will offer me some profit.
Tarusmark,

Please, don't take my advice as truth. you are free to use this strategy but please take your own precautions when doing it.

Study the first post carefully. I hope you will be successful with it and I'm here for any question you could have.

Regards.
Simplicity is the Ultimate Sophistication.
  • #64
  • Oct 7, 2012 10:54am Oct 7, 2012 10:54am
Quoting doshur
I've been trading this system for almost 2 years.

My system is 90% similar to yours. The only difference is that I do not use round numbers but support resistance.

Check how my indicator plots the SR levels http://tradeaud.blogspot.sg/2012/09/...sr-levels.html

An article I wrote on carry trade on audjpy http://tradeaud.blogspot.sg/2012/04/...de-audjpy.html

My broker is Oanda and is giving me interests on the deposit. You might want to consider that and the open position are accumulating per second...
doshur,

I think that you are on the right way to success. You have already understood that using low leverage is a key point.

All the best,
Regards
Simplicity is the Ultimate Sophistication.
  • #65
  • Oct 7, 2012 11:01am Oct 7, 2012 11:01am
Quoting ~bull.bear~
Hi broketrader!

Your strategy is similar to "Grid System". I have my own modified grid strategy. The backtest result is amazing. Below are my position's conditions.

Long Position
Only long entry is applied when price trending upside and break through respective fix price. Stop loss is applied with tight distant. And target as well.

Short Posiiton
Same as Long Position but is toward downside.

By the way, Would you mind to post the EA for your system?
bull.bear,

Thanks for sharing your strategy. I think that a great difference is that I never go short even if, and I know it, I will be wrong half the time.

I don't have any EA implementing my strategy and I don't need one as this is very simple to do manually.

All the best,
Regards
Simplicity is the Ultimate Sophistication.
  • #66
  • Oct 7, 2012 11:12am Oct 7, 2012 11:12am
Quoting PipMaxzz
Thank you!
Your syste mlooks very promosing with a very small size entry. Imagine for $100 you need to keep a backup of say $2000. I dont think you will forever trade 0.1 lots, but you will increase the lot size as you keep making money. When your lot size reaches 1.0, you will need 20K in reserve. Thats a lot....
PipMaxzz,

I have not yet thought on a way of increasing the lot size. If this baby grows, I will have the time to do that. My thinking today is to not increase the lot size right from the first trade but to wait let's say the 3rd or 4th trade to do it. We also know that the later we start the greater the chances are for the trend to reverse and get more profits because you had greater lot sizes on last trades. Anyway I really need more time to think about that in order to evaluate the risks and also to be able to write down some clear rules about it.

Thanks for contributing,
Regards
Simplicity is the Ultimate Sophistication.
  • #67
  • Oct 11, 2012 4:20am Oct 11, 2012 4:20am
As I have just done, I will, on a monthly basis, publish this system's performance by updating a graphic at the bottom of the first post.
Simplicity is the Ultimate Sophistication.
  • #68
  • Oct 11, 2012 11:50am Oct 11, 2012 11:50am
I Think this is a baby siting strategy.
  • #69
  • Oct 14, 2012 4:29pm Oct 14, 2012 4:29pm
In real account:
08/10 buy price 0.8100 now sl 81100
Regards
Julio Bento
  • #70
  • Edited Oct 15, 2012 5:10am Oct 14, 2012 5:36pm | Edited Oct 15, 2012 5:10am
Hi all,

During the past 2 weeks, I noticed that I was leaving too much pips on the table, and this is why I decided to reduce the space step between each trade from 1$ to 0.5$ and also to modify the multipliers I apply at each step to calculate the next buy level. And according to my spreadsheet, the strategy is viable starting from current price levels of about 81.

you have to understand that if prices were higher, this would not be possible as the possible draw-down to face would be of a greater magnitude of what it can be from today.

That means that the spacing number (0.5 now) and the multipliers (see below) have to be adapted according to the price of your first order.

For example, if you trade all the way up to 104 before a draw-down, you will finish with having an open position at that level, which will become your first order, and starting from there, you should change your numbers to say, support a draw-down of 50% without being forced to add to your account no more that 4K or 5K or whatever you can.

Below are the multipliers I utilize now:
1,1,1,1,2,2,2,3,3,4,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11,12,... and so on.

The formula is: Next buy price = Current buy price - (multiplier*0.5)

That means that with the first buy @ 80, subsequent buys are at :
79.5, 79, 78.5 ,78, 77, 76, 75, 73.5, and so on...

Don't forget that with a first order at an historical high you could keep the spacing number at 0.5 but maybe change the multipliers to 1,2,3,4,5... and so on.

Regards.
Simplicity is the Ultimate Sophistication.
  • #71
  • Edited 5:28am Oct 19, 2012 2:17am | Edited 5:28am
A little update...

I have again shortened the grid (spacing number) to 0.3 instead of 0.5 and I'm having good results. The month is not yet terminated and I'm having a net return of more than 30% so far.

The attached image tells the whole story.

The rules in first post have also been updated. If you have questions, you are welcome to ask.

Kind Regards.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: october-2.png Size: 50 KB
Simplicity is the Ultimate Sophistication.
  • #72
  • Oct 19, 2012 9:58am Oct 19, 2012 9:58am
You are taking SOME of the risk out of this strategy by applying these procedures. Good job.

Quoting broketrader
A little update...

I have again shortened the grid (spacing number) to 0.3 instead of 0.5 and I'm having good results. The month is not yet terminated and I'm having a net return of more than 30% so far.

The attached image tells the whole story.

The rules in first post have also been updated. If you have questions, you are welcome to ask.

Kind Regards.
  • #73
  • Oct 19, 2012 10:17am Oct 19, 2012 10:17am
Quoting Dreamliner
You are taking SOME of the risk out of this strategy by applying these procedures. Good job.
Hi Dreamliner,

Yes, I'm still crunching the numbers

There is another tool I could suggest in order to take a little bit more risk out of it which is for example to simply stop entering new orders when you reach the 10th or whatever level and then, just wait for the price to come back.

This depends in fact on how much funds you can allocate to your account and also on the confidence you have in the system.

This is why I also think that it's not a good idea to write an EA for this system. The human factor is important and necessary to judge what's going on, are the prices high ? are we feeling a new down trend ? etc...

Kind regards.
Simplicity is the Ultimate Sophistication.
  • #74
  • Oct 19, 2012 10:40am Oct 19, 2012 10:40am
Very good added input. Yes, no EA would do the job with this method (or really any method). You're thinking, constantly analyzing your risk, seeking for ways to reduce it. These are all good things, and I think you'll be successful (despite this system ).

Quoting broketrader
Hi Dreamliner,

Yes, I'm still crunching the numbers

There is another tool I could suggest in order to take a little bit more risk out of it which is for example to simply stop entering new orders when you reach the 10th or whatever level and then, just wait for the price to come back.

This depends in fact on how much funds you can allocate to your account and also on the confidence you have in the system.

This is why I also think that it's not a good idea to write an EA for this system. The human factor is important and necessary...
  • #75
  • Oct 19, 2012 10:50am Oct 19, 2012 10:50am
Quoting Dreamliner
Very good added input. Yes, no EA would do the job with this method (or really any method). You're thinking, constantly analyzing your risk, seeking for ways to reduce it. These are all good things, and I think you'll be successful (despite this system ).
Yes I'm thinking about the next draw-down in which I will be involved because I want to be prepared and also emotionally detached when it comes to just follow my system with confidence.

So you think that if I succeed is thanks to me and not to the System ?

In my opinion, no system being perfect and sometimes the market being a total chaos, all systems should be human monitored.

Don't you think so ?

Kind regards.
Simplicity is the Ultimate Sophistication.
  • #76
  • Oct 19, 2012 10:57am Oct 19, 2012 10:57am
In answer to your question:

A photographer went to a party, and as soon as he entered the host of the party said "oh sir it is so wonderful of you to come; I personally love your pictures, you must have a really good camera!" The photographer said nothing.

At the end of the meal, as the photographer was leaving he said, "I loved the delicious meal this evening, you must have a really good oven!"

Quoting broketrader
Yes I'm thinking about the next draw-down in which I will be involved because I want to be prepared and also emotionally detached when it comes to just follow my system with confidence.

So you think that if I succeed is thanks to me and not to the System ?

In my opinion, no system being perfect and sometimes the market being a total chaos, all systems should be human monitored.

Don't you think so ?

Kind regards.
  • #77
  • Oct 19, 2012 11:05am Oct 19, 2012 11:05am
Quoting Dreamliner
In answer to your question:

A photographer went to a party, and as soon as he entered the host of the party said "oh sir it is so wonderful of you to come; I personally love your pictures, you must have a really good camera!" The photographer said nothing.

At the end of the meal, as the photographer was leaving he said, "I loved the delicious meal this evening, you must have a really good oven!"
Very good! You have the camera, I have the oven.

There is you and me, but without them, you couldn't take any picture and I couldn't cook any meal.
Simplicity is the Ultimate Sophistication.
  • #78
  • Oct 19, 2012 11:10am Oct 19, 2012 11:10am
Exactly!

Quoting broketrader
Very good! You have the camera, I have the oven.

There is you and me, but without them, you couldn't take any picture and I couldn't cook any meal.
  • #79
  • Oct 24, 2012 1:49am Oct 24, 2012 1:49am
Today we had the CPI release which was of 1.4% vs 0.9% expected.

As of FF :

"Actual > Forecast = Good for currency;"

"Consumer prices account for a majority of overall inflation. Inflation is important to currency valuation because rising prices lead the central bank to raise interest rates out of respect for their inflation containment mandate;"

So the today's release mean that the RBA should not lower it's interest rate on it's next meeting which is good news for us.

Kind regards
Simplicity is the Ultimate Sophistication.
  • #80
  • Oct 30, 2012 4:17am Oct 30, 2012 4:17am
Really, I'm not finished with the handling of my numbers. But with each passing day, the system improves, the ultimate goal being to always remove a maximum of risk.

So now, after a study of the past draw-downs, always on the AUD/JPY pair, I found that regularly occurred two types of draw-downs. The small ones in the order of 5% and the larger ones, in the order of 12% starting from the last peak.

To this we must also add an exception, that of 2008, which reached 47%!

With this in mind, I decided to make the following changes to the system.

1. The calculation of the size of the legs in the grid is no longer fixed in pips but instead, in percentage points over a range of 12%

2. The legs have to be larger if the value is above 81 and that in proportion to the distance between the current value and the level of 81. And smaller below the 81 level and being a multiple of 81by steps of 30 pips.

3. The maximum number of purchases should be limited to between 8 and 10. It is in this way possible to support a larger draw-down, at least up to 45% and survive, obviously having fed the account throughout the descent.

Here is a practical example:

I currently have an open position at 83.40

By applying the rule of 12% drop spread over 8 positions, I could take a position every 1.5% so, my next purchase will be 83.4 - 1.5% = 82,149, which rounded to 30 pips is 82.2

I obtain the following table:

CP NBL %FT MUL STEP

83.4 82.20 -1.44% 4 1.20 <- CP here is our first buy
82.2 81.00 -2.88% 4 1.20
81.0 79.80 -4.32% 4 1.20
79.8 78.60 -5.76% 4 1.20
78.6 77.10 -7.55% 5 1.50
77.1 75.90 -8.99% 4 1.20
75.9 74.70 -10.43% 4 1.20
74.7 73.50 -11.87% 4 1.20
CP = Current Price
NBL = Next Buy level
%FT Distance from first buy
MUL 30 pips (or 0.3) Multiplier
STEP Resulting step = MUL x 0.30


Kind Regards
Simplicity is the Ultimate Sophistication.
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