I'm gonna wait few more minutes for some retrace to 1.285~ and probably short..
- #58,382
- Oct 11, 2012 3:15am Oct 11, 2012 3:15am
well here we are looking at a rising/struggling to drop euro on the back of a "surprise" downgrade that may have already been priced in anyway...this game would be so much more fun if i knew the rules 
- #58,383
- Oct 11, 2012 3:23am Oct 11, 2012 3:23am
- Joined Jul 2009 | Status: Winter is coming. Ask Kondratieff. | 8,196 Posts
There are those who say that a downgrade is already priced in and that the ECB's OMT backstop should keep Spanish bond yields from soaring. My view is that bond yields will rise in the short term as it is very unlikely that Spain will apply for ESM/OMT aid until after the regional elections later this month.
.Are you guys still watching those bonds? 10y shoot up this morning, but got instantly hammered back and now is trading back at the same price as yesterday, when the report was released.
PT you are ofc right Rajoy wont ask for bailout before elections. But as I keep on repeating like a silly kid. If ECB wasnt secretly funding Spain (secretly, therefore, no need to ask for bailout) it would already be forced to do simmilar haircut on its debt like Greece already 2 month ago, would have to apply for aid and we would be trading this pair @ 1,2. But we are still not.
Mate, I know you are very well educated and know enough about macroeconomics to make a clear view, but maybe your knowledge is now obstacle for you. This can not be watched. This is major shift of power in the world, superelection year. Sure, southern Europe is in terrible shape and we can see it on many macro indicators as well as on social mood in Spain. But right now, Mr. Market just closed one eye, maybe even both. If he didnt, we would be in serious trouble here.
What I am saying is, there is someone intervening for sure. And this someone wasnt intervening for three months, to let markets crumble before elections. I see 1,268 pretty close, but cant imagine we will go any lower pre elections.
T
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
- #58,385
- Oct 11, 2012 3:36am Oct 11, 2012 3:36am
- Joined Jul 2009 | Status: Winter is coming. Ask Kondratieff. | 8,196 Posts
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
- #58,386
- Oct 11, 2012 3:49am Oct 11, 2012 3:49am
No way I'm shorting this Evil Pair now... Some mystical stuff is going on...
"Don't Panic..."
- #58,389
- Oct 11, 2012 5:02am Oct 11, 2012 5:02am
- Joined Jul 2009 | Status: Winter is coming. Ask Kondratieff. | 8,196 Posts
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
- #58,390
- Oct 11, 2012 5:07am Oct 11, 2012 5:07am
- | Joined Dec 2011 | Status: Trader | 1,581 Posts
i finally sleep in and i wake up to this. this reminds me of the January 12 rally after spain/italy was downgraded the first time. i bet everyone else covered to capture 100% of the downside 
i, unfortunately, did not and I will be concerned and probably eat a loss since i sold around dialy highs yesterday if eur rally beyond 3050. i would rather walk and wait for suitable re-entry at that point
technically speaking, i would be much more comfortable if it had broken that 61.8% rather than bouncing. however, the current movement is entirely in the scope of the big picture
g/l and dont panic [yet]. gray lines are perceived s/d levels. fib is fib. blue dotted lines are some simple TLs
i, unfortunately, did not and I will be concerned and probably eat a loss since i sold around dialy highs yesterday if eur rally beyond 3050. i would rather walk and wait for suitable re-entry at that pointtechnically speaking, i would be much more comfortable if it had broken that 61.8% rather than bouncing. however, the current movement is entirely in the scope of the big picture
g/l and dont panic [yet]. gray lines are perceived s/d levels. fib is fib. blue dotted lines are some simple TLs
Any prices quoted are futures
- #58,391
- Oct 11, 2012 5:15am Oct 11, 2012 5:15am
- Joined Jul 2009 | Status: Winter is coming. Ask Kondratieff. | 8,196 Posts
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
- #58,393
- Oct 11, 2012 5:33am Oct 11, 2012 5:33am
i actually agree with both you and lc invest.
i can definitely see your point concerning the technicals and agree with you.
at the same time i cant help but feel that the euro has received a push here, particularly after yesterdays news. while the news may not be game changing, it is significant. yet like most bad news lately, concerning the euro, it almost seems to be shrugged off.
when there is so much on the line i dont believe that the market is directed by technicals alone which leaves room for the mystical/manipulation that lc invest...
I'm not as bearish as most people in this thread. I was until around August when technicals started to turn bullish and the bears dissapeared, we broke out of the long term down trend/channel, and the USD now has a lot of implied debasement from QE*infinity, where ECB policy seems a bit more restrained and so on, so I'm probably a bit outspoken on mysticism (because I'm not so surprised that we haven't sold off more, though I think we should go a little lower still, just I think the majority of the downtrend might be over).
"Don't Panic..."
- #58,395
- Oct 11, 2012 5:44am Oct 11, 2012 5:44am
- Joined Jul 2009 | Status: Winter is coming. Ask Kondratieff. | 8,196 Posts
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
- #58,397
- Oct 11, 2012 5:53am Oct 11, 2012 5:53am
Hello mates,
I have a open long trade from todays 1.2830, should i close it coz of these good us news?
in these days i can't realize news. + news for US and EU goes up and i'm confused.
should i close my trade or not?
or i should not attend fundamentals in these days?
Regards
dont know, i'm short. gl
- #58,400
- Oct 11, 2012 6:48am Oct 11, 2012 6:48am
f..ck , why i closed it
"If you don't know why you are in the trade then you shouldn't be"
You did the right thing being out of the trade, regardless of what it did after you closed it.
There are some great posts about trading plans if you have a search around this thread and many others. Just my 2 cents worth.
Short Euro and remaining that way. That's just the way it is !