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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #31,681
  • Oct 8, 2012 10:54am Oct 8, 2012 10:54am
Quoting holmes
I am not sure it happens for now, this week BOJ and IMF are going to discuss the JPY strength and I think it yet has room to gain.
I was joking just, they won't lift a finger for now, only "verbal intervetion" is possible. Or mayby the new guy (also from the economic department) got other plans? We will some, something will happen this month
  • #31,682
  • Oct 8, 2012 11:00am Oct 8, 2012 11:00am
Quoting Ziko9o8
- Not so fast holmes, we have the 38.2 and the 23.6 fib levels besides the area between them, look at the chart to see how long did the price stay in this rectangle.

- Where's yo charts man? gives us something for god's sake.

- Cheers.
I didn' mean so fast, however JPY must be traded on weekly and daily chart and I am looking for entry points 77.50 and 76.80 to add longs this week.
  • #31,683
  • Oct 8, 2012 11:34am Oct 8, 2012 11:34am
what's so great about JPY? the trend has been going on for quite a long time now..
  • #31,684
  • Oct 8, 2012 1:21pm Oct 8, 2012 1:21pm
Quoting Haqu
Strenght of yen is amazing. Rising over 1% in a single day, taking all previous week gains, for a currency index is impresive. I think that in few h we will hear that
"current move in Yen is speculative and BoJ or/and MoF are ready to take decisive action against such atacks on Yen!". And for sure all the investors will be so scared that they will instantly start selling Yen!!
Told ya'!
http://www.forexfactory.com/news.php?do=news&id=388384
  • #31,685
  • Oct 9, 2012 4:34am Oct 9, 2012 4:34am
As predicted, we stoped around 78.30 level, probably next short consolidation awaits us here. W got many "speches" connected to G7 and so on this week from Japanies officials, so we may witness some action after them!
  • #31,686
  • Oct 9, 2012 4:36am Oct 9, 2012 4:36am
Quoting Haqu
As predicted, we stoped around 78.30 level, probably next short consolidation awaits us here. W got many "speches" connected to G7 and so on this week from Japanies officials, so we may witness some action after them!

Any action up or down would be good.

japanese officials talking doesnt move this pair the market just ignores them.
  • #31,687
  • Oct 9, 2012 4:20pm Oct 9, 2012 4:20pm
We will have to wait a lot before this central bank does anything at all. Hope you guys are still in, cause sooner or later, they will have to react to this, but buy the minimum amount possible, they are testing our patience
Alternatives are more important than the plan itself
  • #31,688
  • Oct 10, 2012 12:33am Oct 10, 2012 12:33am
People have been saying they will have to react to the strong yen all the way down from 90.

Why do you think they will soon?
All they can do is spike this pair up a few hundred pips for a few hours.
  • #31,689
  • Edited 1:41am Oct 10, 2012 1:30am | Edited 1:41am
Yen index is getting to the ponit, where it was turning back down for few last weeks, interesting thing is that when we were here last week U/J was at 77.50 and now it its at 78.25.

There are only 2 options for Japan to weaken their currency:

1. Set up peg. like the SNB, which would be hard and rather imposible.

2. Foreign bond buying(especialy US) with BIG monetary easing.

Either way i don't think that they will be able to do anything untill the "EZ crisis" last and people are running to safe heaven currencies like yen! I they are planning to do something, they will probably do it/announce it this month, before japanies quater end and elections!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #31,690
  • Oct 10, 2012 1:48am Oct 10, 2012 1:48am
Quoting Haqu
Yen index is getting to the ponit, where it was turning back down for few last weeks, interesting thing is that when we were here last week U/J was at 77.50 and now it its at 78.25.

There are only 2 options for Japan to weaken their currency:

1. Set up peg. like the SNB, which would be hard and rather imposible.

2. Foreign bond buying(especialy US) with BIG monetary easing.

Either way i don't think that they will be able to do anything untill the "EZ crisis" last and people are running to safe heaven currencies like yen! I they are planning...
Hi Haqu thanks for the chart.

As i have said the japanese are to polite they dont want to upset america with bond buying and they cant peg because of the amount traded in this pair.

They keep going to G7 and G20 meetings and explaining about the yen strength and how it is hurting them but keep getting the middle finger because everyone is trying to devalue there currency.
  • #31,691
  • Oct 10, 2012 2:27am Oct 10, 2012 2:27am
Quoting brinks
People have been saying they will have to react to the strong yen all the way down from 90.

Why do you think they will soon?
All they can do is spike this pair up a few hundred pips for a few hours.
Absolutely right. They were upset when the yen/dollar dropped below 200. They were pissed off when it dropped below 120. Then it went to 100. Then 80. Everyone said it won't go lower. A fellow on here lost everything by assuming it wouldn't go below 84. Now people only dream of 84!!!

All the way down the BOJ kept intervening.

The problem with this thread now is that it's all about "interventions". Shit, other central banks have intervened in the past. Even New Zealand did it back in 2007 (from memory). When the pound drops, people don't jump up and down and expect the BOE to intervene. Even though they have in the past.

If you're going to trade the USDJPY, then do so (and get very bored). But where are the proper arguments as to where the pair is heading. And I mean higher time-frame charts. If you think you know where any pair is heading using 15 minute charts, then you just don't get it. But all we seem to get now is the same old "they won't let it get to this price or that price".

That's my 2 cents worth. Off for a glass of wine.
  • #31,692
  • Oct 10, 2012 7:09am Oct 10, 2012 7:09am
U/J is in last phases of distribution IMO, there will be a very large accumulation coming, when who knows who cares really. It will be a long term investment me thinks buy lo and hold trade something else if you need to make daily pips
"Millionaires don't use astrology, billionaires do"
  • #31,693
  • Oct 10, 2012 10:59am Oct 10, 2012 10:59am
I know that volatility in the fx market is low recently but what has happend to this pair?

I havent traded it since the beginning of the year 19 pips today 28 pips yesterday and a daily average range of 41 pips.
  • #31,694
  • Oct 10, 2012 2:26pm Oct 10, 2012 2:26pm
Quoting OrionsWay
U/J is in last phases of distribution IMO, there will be a very large accumulation coming, when who knows who cares really. It will be a long term investment me thinks buy lo and hold trade something else if you need to make daily pips
This is what i am doing, holding my long and waiting patiently, while trading other pairs. Hope it will payoff in some time, don't have much time for trading nowadays anyway, so it is perfect One day, i belive, yen bubble will break and green pips will flow like waterfall!
  • #31,695
  • Oct 10, 2012 2:41pm Oct 10, 2012 2:41pm
Quoting Haqu
This is what i am doing, holding my long and waiting patiently, while trading other pairs. Hope it will payoff in some time, don't have much time for trading nowadays anyway, so it is perfect One day, i belive, yen bubble will break and green pips will flow like waterfall!

Can you continue to hold if it breaks down to 70-60 area?
  • #31,696
  • Oct 10, 2012 3:20pm Oct 10, 2012 3:20pm
I could, but ofcourse i won't, i will go out much earlier, i would be realy bad trading to hold such loosing position. And I really don't think it will get there, too many factors are poiting that we won't breach lvl 75, not to mention 70. But only time will tell.
  • #31,697
  • Oct 10, 2012 3:22pm Oct 10, 2012 3:22pm
This pair is dead.
  • #31,698
  • Oct 10, 2012 3:39pm Oct 10, 2012 3:39pm
Quoting Haqu
I could, but ofcourse i won't, i will go out much earlier, i would be realy bad trading to hold such loosing position. And I really don't think it will get there, too many factors are poiting that we won't breach lvl 75, not to mention 70. But only time will tell.
I'm not saying it will get that low just a lot of people didn't think it would break 80 and it has a habit of going lower everytime.
  • #31,699
  • Oct 10, 2012 4:15pm Oct 10, 2012 4:15pm
Quoting brinks
I'm not saying it will get that low just a lot of people didn't think it would break 80 and it has a habit of going lower everytime.
That is true, no doubt about it, but if you would look at monthly/weekly charts, we are facing now a really long period of consolidation, longer than others in history of yen pair- it means that on these level yen is probably super overbought and something really bad would need to happen if for it to dive even lower.

Funny fact is that as a safe heaven currency yen is now getting strenght on wave of euro debt crisis, while being the currency of one of the most indebt countries in the world
  • #31,700
  • Oct 11, 2012 1:16am Oct 11, 2012 1:16am
77.92 is next support, broken will open way again to 77.50. That is never getting old!

Yen index, up presurre is MUCH stroger that down.
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