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  • #53,441
  • Oct 10, 2012 12:51am Oct 10, 2012 12:51am
Quoting bguguen
Yolo get your horsies ready! AUDUSD in a long term downwards trend....
problem is... will australia have guts in dropping rate as soon as October 16 at the next"Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes"?? or will they delay for a month?
Totally understand your point, I have a supportng graph which I am sure you have on your screen.

But do you really think it can go down forever? There is more room for it to move up then there is for it to move down in my opinion. Sure it may drop, but I see the real move being to the upside.
Even the worst trade can close with profit. Just give it time.
  • #53,442
  • Oct 10, 2012 12:52am Oct 10, 2012 12:52am
Quoting Balmain Boy
There have and never will be any rate movements by the RBA on the release of 'the minutes" - maybe you just don't understand the term ?

The RBA only implement changes to Interest Rates at 2.30.pm every 1st Tuesday of the month except for January when there is no meeting held .
i didnt say they will lower interest rate for sure on Monetary Policy Meeting Minute... But the discussions during the Monetary Policy Meeting and the contents discussed will give us a hint wether if we can expect a lowering of interest rate the next time interest rate decision occurs... which is in 3 months time....

I HAVE been trading fundies FIRST before i do my studies in techs so, probably not the best to argue with me on this....

Monetary Policy Minutes is a preliminary indicator for upcoming interest rate decisions... and wtever they discuss on October 16, IF they talk about China Easing and slow growth to hampen australian economy? or anywehre around that lines... YOU CAN bet your ass rate cuts are inevitable.
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #53,443
  • Oct 10, 2012 12:52am Oct 10, 2012 12:52am
the minutes to be released next week is for last meeting (Oct 2nd) where we had rate cut..




Quoting HelloOz
RBA doesnt meet in January because of new year holidays,
so they have 60days off from Dec to Feb.
  • #53,444
  • Oct 10, 2012 12:58am Oct 10, 2012 12:58am
i read somewhere (i think it was smh.com.au) few days ago that RBA always cut interest rates in November for the last 7 years.

FYI - we also have Melbourne Cup on that day and the race is about the same time as RBA decision..


Quoting bguguen
i didnt say they will lower interest rate for sure on Monetary Policy Meeting Minute... But the discussions during the Monetary Policy Meeting and the contents discussed will give us a hint wether if we can expect a lowering of interest rate the next time interest rate decision occurs... which is in 3 months time....

I HAVE been trading fundies FIRST before i do my studies in techs so, probably not the best to argue with me on this....

Monetary Policy Minutes is a preliminary indicator for upcoming interest rate decisions... and wtever they...
  • #53,445
  • Oct 10, 2012 12:58am Oct 10, 2012 12:58am
Quoting HelloOz
RBA doesnt meet in January because of new year holidays,
so they have 60days off from Dec to Feb.
Sheesh you totally mistaken my point... the monetary policy meeting on october 16, is a discussion about their cash rate decision 2 weeks before... which they lowered interest rate on october 2nd, the thing is... THIS MEETING also discusses about interest rate decisions in the future..... and they will most probably bring up talks of weak china growth to hampen Australian Economy.... if they start talking in those line... we can see a continued weakening of the Aussie Dollar....

Next Interest Rate decision doesnt happen officially until November 6th but im SURE they will discuss about November 6th THIS OCTOBER 16!!!
so KEEP your eyes out on the news and what they are talking about in October 16.
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #53,446
  • Oct 10, 2012 1:00am Oct 10, 2012 1:00am
Quoting HelloOz
the minutes to be released next week is for last meeting (Oct 2nd) where we had rate cut..
Da fuq... read m posts!!! thats what i just said... the coming minutes will talk about October 2nd decision... but they will also talk about the Foreseeable future... and if they say the Australian Economy is being hampened by china and its looking bleak.... November 6th may be the NEXT time interest rate falls again....
so WATCH out what they are talking about on october 16!!!
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #53,447
  • Oct 10, 2012 1:01am Oct 10, 2012 1:01am
will keep my eyes open..

cheers



Quoting bguguen
Sheesh you totally mistaken my point... the monetary policy meeting on october 16, is a discussion about their cash rate decision 2 weeks before... which they lowered interest rate on october 2nd, the thing is... THIS MEETING also discusses about interest rate decisions in the future..... and they will most probably bring up talks of weak china growth to hampen Australian Economy.... if they start talking in those line... we can see a continued weakening of the Aussie Dollar....

Next Interest Rate decision doesnt happen officially until November...
  • #53,448
  • Oct 10, 2012 1:02am Oct 10, 2012 1:02am
we are both replying at the same time..

see you guys tonight, im heading off..



Quoting bguguen
Da fuq... read m posts!!! thats what i just said... the coming minutes will talk about October 2nd decision... but they will also talk about the Foreseeable future... and if they say the Australian Economy is being hampened by china and its looking bleak.... November 6th may be the NEXT time interest rate falls again....
so WATCH out what they are talking about on october 16!!!
  • #53,449
  • Oct 10, 2012 1:06am Oct 10, 2012 1:06am
Quoting HelloOz
we are both replying at the same time..

see you guys tonight, im heading off..
lol i noticed... but do watch out Monetary Policy Meetings are incredibly devilish and people often dont realise monetary policy meeting discusses interest rates that they adjusted in the past but they also talk about their VIEWS on the future....
right now their stance in October 2 after lowering the interest rate says they did not state wether this is the start of a consecutive interest rate cuts, maybe october 16 would shed more light on this subject... if they are not optimistic about it then theres high chances that november 6th will be another intrest rate cut....
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #53,450
  • Oct 10, 2012 1:08am Oct 10, 2012 1:08am
Downward Channel.

Expecting break to upside

Quoting John Gray
Totally understand your point, I have a supportng graph which I am sure you have on your screen.

But do you really think it can go down forever? There is more room for it to move up then there is for it to move down in my opinion. Sure it may drop, but I see the real move being to the upside.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: au downward channel.PNG Size: 48 KB
Even the worst trade can close with profit. Just give it time.
  • #53,451
  • Oct 10, 2012 1:10am Oct 10, 2012 1:10am
Quoting John Gray
Totally understand your point, I have a supportng graph which I am sure you have on your screen.

But do you really think it can go down forever? There is more room for it to move up then there is for it to move down in my opinion. Sure it may drop, but I see the real move being to the upside.
Well actually heres where you are wrong.... open up ur weekly chat and you'll realize the BOTTOM is not 1.02 area, 1.02 area was the low during a very low liquidity time and i mean VERY LOW liquidity summer peridos... right now we are in higher liquidity times.... sooo on your weekly chart...
you should see the Highs and Lows as the 2 Aquatic lines i have on my chart... you see them? soo it ranges from 0.98xx to 1.05xx

So even if you short at 1.02 (though i wont advise yo uto do so...) you have a higher Returns heading to 0.98xx than you would have longing at 1.02 aiming for 1.05xx
does it make sense??
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: audusd weekly.gif Size: 28 KB
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #53,452
  • Oct 10, 2012 1:10am Oct 10, 2012 1:10am
Quoting bguguen
China is Easing? WHAT A SURPRISE!!! not.... but may i ask where you read about the easing??
but then im wondering would Australia be aggressive about lowering interest rates AGAIN on October 16.... knowing china is easing, Australia should follow suit... but will they do it as soon as a week after China announces? are they THAT aggressive??
my guess is they wont drop rates on October 16, but they will in November... give it a 1 month delay like they did the last time China eased....
Looks like you're back peddling.
FF journal: Peaks and Troffs
  • #53,453
  • Oct 10, 2012 1:14am Oct 10, 2012 1:14am
Quoting bogus
Looks like you're back peddling.
Nah my mistake.... read a couple posts after that... i wrote about October 16 being just a discussion of the October 2 rate cut, and they will also discuss about their view of the foreseeable future and this might give us a hint if they would drop interest rates again officially on November 6th... so if they are pessimistic on october 16, theres a high chance we'll see interest rate cuts AGAIN on November 6th.
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #53,454
  • Oct 10, 2012 1:21am Oct 10, 2012 1:21am
Quoting bguguen
i didnt say they will lower interest rate for sure on Monetary Policy Meeting Minute...
But you thought it a possibility .......

Quoting bguguen
will australia have guts in dropping rate as soon as October 16 at the next"Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes"??
There's a world of difference from the RBA being in a position to alter Interest Rates to the market players searching 2 week old "minutes": for clues on future monetary policy .
  • #53,455
  • Oct 10, 2012 1:26am Oct 10, 2012 1:26am
Quoting Balmain Boy
But you thought it a possibility .......



There's a world of difference from the RBA being in a position to alter Interest Rates to the market players searching 2 week old "minutes": for clues on future monetary policy .
First of all.. if you are going to quote what i say... can you please quote the entire post rather than being selective in sentences you quoted which completely made whatever i tried to say absolutely lost in translation?

Secondly, Well if theres any chance interest rate DROPS officially on november 6th, October 16 would be the time to hear hints of it being a possibility, so for me as a speculator... i will take into account what they say on October 16 and determine on my own if interest rates will be lowered or not given the fundamental conditions remain unchanged until November 6th....

SO YES I see discussion on October 16 LINKED with the possibility of a change in interest rate of November 6th. Thats how i predicted the drop in interest rate on October 2nd.
and i caught the ENTIRE move down on AUDUSD since 1.04, please refer to my trade explorer in my profile if you have any doubts about it. thank you very much.

Hopefully i made myself CLEAR this time, because i dont feel like repeating what i say again....
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #53,456
  • Oct 10, 2012 1:33am Oct 10, 2012 1:33am
B

Chill out brother... everyone is entitled to their opinion and no one is questioning your trading prowess

The market is pricing in potential rate cuts to %2.75 by Feb 2013... China is easing heavily and it will most likely lead to future cuts... However oftentimes new supply needs to be consumed so price will go up to find it to create the equilibrium...
  • #53,457
  • Oct 10, 2012 1:35am Oct 10, 2012 1:35am
Quoting Wulfgar
B

Chill out brother... everyone is entitled to their opinion and no one is questioning your trading prowess

The market is pricing in potential rate cuts to %2.75 by Feb 2013... China is easing heavily and it will most likely lead to future cuts... However oftentimes new supply needs to be consumed so price will go up to find it to create the equilibrium...
umm yep that i know... thats why i got a relatively larger pending order IF it gets back up to 1.03 but i very much doubt it will get up there...
Iron and Aluminum prices are tanking hard and im sure Australia is feeling the pinch....
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #53,458
  • Oct 10, 2012 1:36am Oct 10, 2012 1:36am
sweet two pages about minutes. lets simplify everything shall we. Dollar index to come back down a bit from the range high here and AUD/USD in Ny will be trading higher.

The cut coming in Nov or December will take us lower again this time near parity. This game is really simple sometimes others not so much. Those who scalp or swing minor moves should not listen to me those who position and macro trade should understand that being a bull now when cuts are just beginning and stockpiles of coal and Iron ore are building and not shipped and layoffs are are still in the news should not be long this pair macro.

This is a move lower but it is exhausted i think most here can agree on that but the upside is limited for the next move lower after the next cut.

Night all.
  • #53,459
  • Oct 10, 2012 1:38am Oct 10, 2012 1:38am
one more point Jobs tomorrow will break this range so until that happens the bull argument is invalid as is the bear argument for a next leg lower.
  • #53,460
  • Oct 10, 2012 1:38am Oct 10, 2012 1:38am
Quoting jplazard
sweet two pages about minutes. lets simplify everything shall we. Dollar index to come back down a bit from the range high here and AUD/USD in Ny will be trading higher.

The cut coming in Nov or December will take us lower again this time near parity. This game is really simple sometimes others not so much. Those who scalp or swing minor moves should not listen to me those who position and macro trade should understand that being a bull now when cuts are just beginning and stockpiles of coal and Iron ore are building and not shipped and layoffs...
exhausted indeed or rather approaching oversold so yes expect a sligh retracement but i will NEVER Long a retracement but rather use retracement as opportunity to load short when the Trend is Bearish.
Thats why i have pending short at 1.03 which is relatively larger than the normal lot size i trade.
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
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