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AUD/USD

  • #53,421
  • Oct 9, 2012 7:12pm Oct 9, 2012 7:12pm
Quoting Ken A
Yeah I am watching many pairs including GBP though I don't know the reason for the drop. You have any idea?


Attachment

GBPUSD fall is inevitable and im sorry to say this but you are missing out of a potentially big move.... the trigger for gbpusd sell happened in 1.63, look at weekly charts and tell me where the previous top is and where the Recent top is.... 1.63, then a doji happening at the near top of 1.6250....
RSI was at overbought at those time so it was perfect timing to go short then....
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #53,422
  • Oct 9, 2012 8:34pm Oct 9, 2012 8:34pm
with the charted elements on the TF, i would recommend to keep an eye out of these elements on the H1 chart.
Watch for the 2 Purple coloured trendlines, obviously resistance area occurs at the top purple trendline with confluencing resistance at daily pivot at 1.0208

Support however ranges from 1.0200 whole number (but this is pivotal) and 1.0180 purple line being the main support.

however when a breakout occurs on H1, make sure its confirmed by H4 close as well.

i hope everyone finds this useful.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: audusd h1.gif Size: 22 KB
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #53,423
  • Oct 9, 2012 10:50pm Oct 9, 2012 10:50pm
If dollar fails here in the next several hours look for AUD/USD to come up a bit more overnight till Employment
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2012-10-09-TOS_CHARTS.jpg Size: 139 KB
  • #53,424
  • Oct 9, 2012 10:59pm Oct 9, 2012 10:59pm
Quoting jplazard
If dollar fails here in the next several hours look for AUD/USD to come up a bit more overnight till Employment
from the looks on your chart i doubt it.... looks destined for that 61.8% fibo before we see any reaction.... and i AM expecting AUDUSD to make a leg down to retest bottom
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #53,425
  • Oct 9, 2012 11:07pm Oct 9, 2012 11:07pm
Quoting bguguen
from the looks on your chart i doubt it.... looks destined for that 61.8% fibo before we see any reaction.... and i AM expecting AUDUSD to make a leg down to retest bottom

I dunno its possible we could see some buying at retarded strong support with weakening lower and matching highs
  • #53,426
  • Oct 9, 2012 11:20pm Oct 9, 2012 11:20pm
who here bought the china dip like i was saying to do
  • #53,427
  • Oct 9, 2012 11:33pm Oct 9, 2012 11:33pm
ANZ Australian Rates Strategy Update: Cautious on direction, Q20s to perform versus swap

· KEY VIEWS: We are cautious in the near-term despite some signs of a return in demand for core AAA bond markets and further modest easing of monetary policy. So we do not have big directional views at present. We would see only limited scope for yields to fall significantly from current levels and better growth dynamics globally could yet put upward pressure on core bond market yields. The curve has finally started to steepen, but this looks to be more related to supply. The scope for further credit compression also looks to be limited at present. We remain selective on semis after the recent outperformance of credit spreads, but see scope for better performance versus swap. The ability to deliver on asset sales in Queensland is a positive for debt metrics and supply so we look at Q20s to narrow to swap. We could see more AUS-US compression over time, but this could come from higher longer-dated US yields.
· STIR: We do not see a strong case for three cuts in a row from the RBA at this stage. So either December OIS is getting over extended near 2.90% or else the November/December IB spread will look too wide above 20bps if we see a weak Labour Force report tomorrow. Leading indicators of the labour market continue to weaken gradually.
· POLICY & THE ECONOMY: The house view is for one further RBA rate cut in November. Activity data support the view that risks on policy will remain to the downside into 2013, but global factors suggest there is a case for the RBA to pause to reassess the outlook into the end of the year; the AUD TWI is down over 5% in two months, iron ore has bounced and activity data are still consistent with an ongoing expansion.
· GLOBAL MARKETS: There is still sufficient economic and political uncertainty to retain an underlying bid to core bonds after the recent outperformance of credit and emerging markets. We are looking for some improvement in global leading indicators into the end of the year as this uncertainty is removed.
· KEEP AN EYE ON:Labour Force data tomorrow should confirm a gradual weakening in conditions, even if unemployment remains relatively low. RBA Minutes are due on October 16th before attention switches to CPI data at the end of the month, which should confirm there is no constraint on the RBA to ease on November 6th. Tight fiscal policy could be underlined with an early mid-year budget review. Key US activity data for October are due next week and the EU Summit is on October 18th.
  • #53,428
  • Oct 9, 2012 11:57pm Oct 9, 2012 11:57pm
Quoting sidhujag
who here bought the china dip like i was saying to do
huh what china dip??
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #53,429
  • Oct 9, 2012 11:59pm Oct 9, 2012 11:59pm
Ascending triangle to 1.0275, then plunge?
  • #53,430
  • Oct 10, 2012 12:08am Oct 10, 2012 12:08am
Quoting Arkv
Ascending triangle to 1.0275, then plunge?
maybe, but i aint gona long it, only looking for opportunities to short in a bear trend.
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #53,431
  • Oct 10, 2012 12:24am Oct 10, 2012 12:24am
Quoting bguguen
huh what china dip??
little dip prior to china. They are easing now
  • #53,432
  • Oct 10, 2012 12:28am Oct 10, 2012 12:28am
Quoting sidhujag
little dip prior to china. They are easing now
China is Easing? WHAT A SURPRISE!!! not.... but may i ask where you read about the easing??
but then im wondering would Australia be aggressive about lowering interest rates AGAIN on October 16.... knowing china is easing, Australia should follow suit... but will they do it as soon as a week after China announces? are they THAT aggressive??
my guess is they wont drop rates on October 16, but they will in November... give it a 1 month delay like they did the last time China eased....
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #53,433
  • Oct 10, 2012 12:30am Oct 10, 2012 12:30am
Quoting bguguen
China is Easing? WHAT A SURPRISE!!! not.... but may i ask where you read about the easing??
but then im wondering would Australia be aggressive about lowering interest rates AGAIN on October 16.... knowing china is easing, Australia should follow suit... but will they do it as soon as a week after China announces? are they THAT aggressive??
my guess is they wont drop rates on October 16, but they will in November... give it a 1 month delay like they did the last time China eased....

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-1...-forecast.html
  • #53,434
  • Oct 10, 2012 12:33am Oct 10, 2012 12:33am
Quoting Wulfgar
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-1...-forecast.html
Yolo get your horsies ready! AUDUSD in a long term downwards trend....
problem is... will australia have guts in dropping rate as soon as October 16 at the next"Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes"?? or will they delay for a month?
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #53,435
  • Oct 10, 2012 12:37am Oct 10, 2012 12:37am
Quoting bguguen
Yolo get your horsies ready! AUDUSD in a long term downwards trend....
problem is... will australia have guts in dropping rate as soon as October 16?? or will they delay for a month?
Heng seng and Nikkei in risk off mode today... although the ozzy is undeniably strengthening vs everything... Ive established some Longs on the AUD/NZD... although i remain bearish in the short term on the AU until we at least reach the 1.0125 area for a move back up
  • #53,436
  • Oct 10, 2012 12:41am Oct 10, 2012 12:41am
Why Oct 16?
next meet is on the 6th of November.

then Dec 4th,

then next year Feb.



Quoting bguguen
Yolo get your horsies ready! AUDUSD in a long term downwards trend....
problem is... will australia have guts in dropping rate as soon as October 16 at the next"Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes"?? or will they delay for a month?
  • #53,437
  • Oct 10, 2012 12:48am Oct 10, 2012 12:48am
Quoting bguguen
problem is... will australia have guts in dropping rate as soon as October 16 at the next"Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes"?? or will they delay for a month?

There have and never will be any rate movements by the RBA on the release of 'the minutes" - maybe you just don't understand the term ?

The RBA only implement changes to Interest Rates at 2.30.pm every 1st Tuesday of the month except for January when there is no meeting held .
  • #53,438
  • Oct 10, 2012 12:48am Oct 10, 2012 12:48am
Quoting HelloOz
Why Oct 16?
next meet is on the 6th of November.

then Dec 4th,

then next year Feb.
Even YOU just showed a patter... their monetary policy minutes is every 2 months.... December the Feb right?? what about BEFORE december?? must be in october...

buddy put a bit more effort to do your research better....
http://www.forexfactory.com/calendar...eek=oct14.2012
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #53,439
  • Oct 10, 2012 12:49am Oct 10, 2012 12:49am
its november brother..

next meet is November 6...



Quoting bguguen
Even YOU just showed a patter... their monetary policy minutes is every 2 months.... December the Feb right?? what about BEFORE december?? must be in october...

buddy put a bit more effort to do your research better....
http://www.forexfactory.com/calendar...eek=oct14.2012
  • #53,440
  • Oct 10, 2012 12:50am Oct 10, 2012 12:50am
RBA doesnt meet in January because of new year holidays,
so they have 60days off from Dec to Feb.




Quoting bguguen
Even YOU just showed a patter... their monetary policy minutes is every 2 months.... December the Feb right?? what about BEFORE december?? must be in october...

buddy put a bit more effort to do your research better....
http://www.forexfactory.com/calendar...eek=oct14.2012
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