EurAnalysis

uc is doing ok until now, so... i forgive you

nice trick up ur sleeves,u and TRMZ.
thanks a million am pulling out a chart and plotting them right away..

sorry and i meant do you "read" not reading. but u basically answered it.tanks again

here's why im looking to go long

aside from the potential BS the talking heads will spew after the Eurogroup meetings, we're testing an old trendline

(those trend lines were drawn back in July)

managing this one cautiously as i do believe fundamentally euro is still a short candidate

Really?

boy, oh, boy, oh, boy, oh, boy

below my chart end forecast

I'm still bearish the Euro

E/U Weekly

The IMF has warned that unless the eurozone resolves its capital crisis, European banks’ balance sheets will contract severely, further damaging growth and pushing unemployment beyond already record highs in the region.

E-Flirt Alert x2!!

Too much volatility here. Talk to you over the phone.

Eh glad you like boys.

Bear continues in Asian? hmmmm

ken, i logged to query just that. it just way outside of normal price range on the 15m and 10y t-notes shot up.

here's my plan for tonight on ea

taking a short again 1.2655 let's see if it hits...expecting a retracement from last few days move.
let's see if i can get filled
tp should be around 1.2462(38%), 1.2341(50%), 1.2231(61%)

Redteamgo,

Not looking good excepts Hang Seng and China CSI 300 gain. Let's see what London does.


Gnomoneey,

If bear continues, I don't expect the order be filled because I don't see AUD can go further down without bad econ data. I open a small sell at 1.2630.

Tuesday, October 9, 2012 5:54:17 PM

https://phoenixcapital.infusionsoft....nload?Id=10178

Dear CurrencyMan ,

For over two years now, I've been warning that
the 2008 Crash was just a warm up and that the
REAL Crisis would occur when the stock market
realized that the Central Banks, lead by the US
Federal Reserve could NOT actually hold the
financial system together.

Well, the Crisis I've been warning about is here.
Below is the chart of the S&P 500 since the day
QE 3 was announced. As you can see, stocks are
DOWN.

https://d1yoaun8syyxxt.cloudfront.ne...iqgondioicm-v2
Let that sink in for a moment... the US Federal
Reserve has announced an unlimited program
and stocks have FALLEN.

The same is true in Europe where the ECB
announced an unlimited bond buying and
Europe's most troubled market:

Ibex has FALLEN.

https://d1yoaun8syyxxt.cloudfront.ne...htytvinvrhg-v2

So... we've got both the Fed and the ECB, the
two most important Central Banks in the world
have announced unlimited money printing
programs and the markets are DOWN.

Now this doesn't mean that the markets will
implode tomorrow or next week... but this is
a MAJOR change of events that indicates the
next round of the Great Crisis (the worse round)
is well on its way.

When it hits in full force, we're going to
seeing major banks go under, market crashes,
food shortages, government shutdowns, and
SYSTEMIC FAILURE.

Yes, I believe that before this mess ends,
the financial system as a whole will have
collapsed. What's coming is going to make
2008 look like a joke.

Many people will lose everything in this
mess. Yes, everything. The US is going
to be defaulting on its debt, paper currencies
around the world will fail. It's going to be
a dark dark time.



I've recently published three reports devoted
to helping my clients get through this mess
in one piece. They're titled Protect Your
Family, Protect Your Savings, and
Protect Your Portfolio.

All in all these reports cover everything from
how much food to store to which banks will
go under, when the US will default on its
debts, which investments will pay out the
biggest gains as the system collapses and more.

Regarding that last point, few analysts on the
planet can match my ability to return a profit
during times of Crisis.

http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1349795700.php



The US Dollar October Mystery and Its Influence on Precious Metals




-- Posted Tuesday, 9 October 2012 | Share this article| Source: GoldSeek.com

Right now all currencies on the planet are backed by debt. If you need a refresher course in why fiat money can become toast, here are some words published this week on the website of Texas Congressman Ron Paul about fiat money and gold standard:


Fiat money is not good money because it can be issued without limit and therefore cannot act as a stable store of value. A fiat monetary system gives complete discretion to those who run the printing press, allowing governments to spend money without having to suffer the political consequences of raising taxes. Fiat money benefits those who create it and receive it first, enriching government and its cronies. And the negative effects of fiat money are disguised so that people do not realize that money the Fed creates today is the reason for the busts, rising prices and unemployment, and diminished standard of living tomorrow.


This is why it is so important to allow people the freedom to choose stable money. Earlier this Congress I introduced the Free Competition in Currency Act (H.R. 1098) to permit people to use gold as money again. By eliminating taxes on gold and other precious metals and repealing legal tender laws, people are given the option between using good money or fiat money. If the government persists in debasing the dollar - as money monopolists have always done - then the people would be able to protect themselves by using alternatives such as gold that are both sound and stable.


As the fiat money pyramid crumbles, gold retains its luster. Rather than being the barbarous relic Keynesians have tried to lead us to believe it is, gold is, as the Bundesbank president put it, "a timeless classic." The defamation of gold wrought by central banks and governments is because gold exposes the devaluation of fiat currencies and the flawed policies of government. Governments hate gold because the people cannot be fooled by it.


We all know that gold has gone up spectacularly in the last decade. If you want to look at the numbers just for the sheer pleasure of it, here is a list. (The ones, who will get the most enjoyment from this list, are those that got into the gold trade in its earlier stages.)


2000 — $273.60
2001 — $279.00
2002 — $348.20
2003 — $416.10
2004 — $438.40
2005 — $518.90
2006 — $638.00
2007 — $838.00
2008 — $889.00
2009 — $1096.50
2010 — $1421.40
2011 — $1566.80
2012 — $???


While nobody can tell now high will gold go in 2012, the odds are that it will end up much higher than it did last year.


In the following part of the essay we will see if the short-term picture is as positive as the long-term one. As indicated in the title of this essay, we will focus on the situation in the currency markets in order to estimate the most likely outcome from here. We will start with the USD Index long-term chart (charts courtesy by http://stockcharts.com.)

http://67.19.64.18/news/2012/10-9pr/...ber92012_1.gif


There were no long-term changes this week and the picture remains bearish because of the invalidation of the previous breakout (…) This is an important bearish phenomenon for the medium term, and the implications for the months ahead are quite bearish.


The USD long-term bearish outlook remains in place.

http://67.19.64.18/news/2012/10-9pr/...ber92012_2.gif


However, the above medium-term chart that can tell us some interesting things about the US currency’s near future. This chart allows us to use two important local tops (from 2010 and 2012) to create a support line. Adding this support line to our chart adds value because clearly this support line has stopped the decline seen recently in the USD Index and therefore improves the bullish outlook.


In fact, taking into account this perspective alone, the outlook is bullish. While a major rally does not appear likely based on the long-term picture, a smaller upswing appears quite possible from a medium-term outlook. Combining the implications and signals of the two, it seems that another attempt to move above the declining resistance line (seen on the previous, long-term chart) is a good possibility in the near term.


Summing up, we could still see another small decline in the USD Index followed by a bigger rally and then a continuation of the decline. There appears to be a good possibility for a correction in the precious metals sector when the USD moves higher again.


Thank you for reading. Have a great and profitable week!


Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA
Editor
www.SunshineProfits.com

http://img-ak.verticalresponse.com/m...22.47%20PM.gif

Greece: It’s Time to Go
Justin Burkhardt | FXFocus.com

The lost decade. You never realize you're lost until hours into a trip when you find out you have no clue where you are. In Greece's case, that took years. The good times were rolling and the markets were booming.

Then came the burst of the bubble. What looked like endless prosperity turned quickly into a nightmarish hell of austerity, tax increases, and rampant-unemployment. With the moral hazard already breached by Lehman, the EU tried to prop the country up with bailout after bailout. Restrictions and targets were imposed then promptly ignored.

Investors soon realized the free market has no place when politics run amok. The bond vigilantes came out in force to make Greek debt unsustainable without a constant ECB backstop.

Now, after years of trying, the end of a Greek era should be close at hand. The constant bailouts, the barrage of opposition, the missed targets; failure has thwarted the country’s every effort to pull themselves out of the hole they are so deeply in.

Today German Chancellor Angela Merkel met with Greek Prime minister Antonis Samaras to discuss the Greek crisis. It is obvious that the harsh austerity measures are not yielding the results that Merkel believed they would, but her visit to Athens confirms one thing; that regardless of the countries inadequacies, she does see a Greek future in the EU.

Merkel made sure to add tension to her “relief” statement by stressing that Greece still needs to push through key cost-cutting reforms in order to be compliant with previous German terms.

From the outside, this looks like the Greek story has entered syndication. Greece still can’t get their act together; Germany comes in slaps them on the hand like a child and offers a threat to make them think about what they did. Does anything REALLY change though? No…

Greece is already requesting a two-year extension on their fiscal targets. Is this evidence that the country is likely to continue within the same cyclical trend they have been in for the last decade?

If we were following “Free market” principals, which we are not, it would dictate that Greece is not viable and that the EU should cut their losses quickly and begin focusing on the other looming threats within the EU

Much of Southern Europe is in a deep recession, and Greece is an unnecessary distraction.

FOREX Insights

The market has already started to react to the news flowing out of Europe. The EUR.USD is 0.70 percent off of the days high and short-term the outlook is that we will see a continued decline.

The pair just completed its “B” wave move retracing 76.4 percent of the previous downtrend and is zipping through wave “C” now. The Expectation for a “C” wave is that it will extend 61.8 percent past the end of wave “A” at a minimum. But most frequently we see equality between waves “A” and “C”, thus our expectation is that wave “C” will find its bottom at or around $1.2705.

Indicators On Watch

- EUR German Consumer Price Index (Thursday)
- EUR ECB Publishes Oct. Monthly Report (Thursday)

http://img-ak.verticalresponse.com/m...22.29%20PM.gif

Your currency analyst,

Justin Burkhardt
http://www.fxfocus.com/

http://www.mineweb.com/mineweb/view/...ail&pid=102055

(Mineweb) -


While gold bugs have long been aware that gold is, and always has been, a monetary metal many others in the investment community have, in the past, continued to feel otherwise and valued it accordingly as just another commodity. But this perception is changing as recent events, and price movements, have emphasised that the gold price moves are currently being dictated more by global economic and political factors than by normal commodity economics of supply and demand. Even renowned investment guru, Denis Gartman, who has a huge following in the U.S. and elsewhere, has recently come out and said, in a CNBC interview "Gold is just another currency....It is doing well in other currency terms...I am not a gold bug. I don't think the world is coming to an end, but I think everyone needs to own some gold."

Recent developments, though, have clearly emphasised gold's monetary role, with perhaps the most significant being the turnaround in Central Bank policies. These banks have become important buyers of the yellow metal over the past two years. The ongoing debate about classifying gold as a banking tier 1 asset is also an indicator of the financial elite's perhaps reluctant re-acceptance of gold as a monetary metal - or indeed as the ultimate in reserve currencies.

There is little doubt that the upwards trajectory of the gold price over the past 11 years has less to do with traditional supply/demand economics. It rather represents a parallel decline in the value of global currencies as Central Banks around the world effectively devalue them against the gold ‘constant' through monetary easing policies - the basic problem with unbacked fiat currencies coupled with Ben Bernanke's quoted ‘printing press technology'! As long as the U.S Fed and European, Japanese and other central banks continue with monetary easing, gold's path will likely remain higher, although not without the occasional sharp correction.

It has been doubts about the likely longevity of the Fed's open-ended easing programme, in the light of the latest U.S. job figures, which showed a fall in official unemployment below 8%, which were seen, by many commentators as the reason behind much of Friday's $20+ fallback in dollar gold prices and the continuing weakness in early trade today.

However, a closer analysis of the labour figures shows that all may not be as it seems at first glance with the ‘rise' in employment being largely due to big increases in part-time and government employment - the latter immediately ahead of the Presidential election which, relevant or not, creates some doubts about the motives behind an increase from this source.

Unofficial figures, such as respected economist, John Williams' extremely well regarded ShadowStats, show a hugely higher unemployment rate. Indeed, Williams notes that the U.S. Bureau of Land Management's own broader U6 definition puts U.S unemployment at 14.7% and his own ShadowStats assessment is 22.8%. Similarly, he reckons government inflation figures are hugely out of touch with reality at 1.7% while ShadowStats figures put it at over 9% which does seem to reflect household experience rather more accurately. (Williams reckons that the quality of government reporting has deteriorated sharply in the past couple of decades. Reporting problems have included methodological changes to economic reporting that have pushed headline economic and inflation results out of the realm of real-world or common experience.)

Friday's and this morning's gold price dip did put a stop to what was beginning to look like an inexorable drive back towards the $1,800 gold price level last seen in late summer 2011. How temporary this reversal proves remains to be seen, but the gold bulls are nervous that the fall may have largely been due to a take-down by the big short position holders using the latest official employment figures as a lever and that there could be further falls back to around the $1750 level or lower, before the correction ends and the price consolidates again.

But overall, the gold price continues to move driven by political and economic factors rather than by traditional supply/demand fundamentals. The statistically-biased gold analysts will tell you that fundamentals remain the key, but it's not the traditional commodity fundamentals driven by industrial usage (including jewellery) versus mine and scrap supply which are driving the gold price. The biggest demand factor nowadays is the ‘investment demand' which the statisticians assume to be that which balances the supply/demand books - and this is dependent almost entirely on the perception of gold as both a monetary asset and as financial security in a time of global economic turmoil. The more people continue to have a lack of confidence in the future purchasing power of their own currencies, the longer gold will continue to rise regardless of the occasional blips in the upwards pattern along the way.

Beer Party! Long stopped out !!