EurAnalysis

Very boring as expected, though a to-the-pip bounce from the 50% retracement of to move from September 28th. Pity the demand there wasn't more clear, I didn't take it.

I might take a tiny trade off 1.3050 when the high gets tested again, but really nothing very appealing yet so not willing to risk much.

Hate waiting for news/volatility Sometimes its weeks without a trade on...

Good morning everyone.

Yesterday's Eurogroup meetings seemed to be a non-event in the greater picture. Furthermore, other than a couple of comments to reporters, there was nothing of substance released by any of the participants. Today we have the EcoFin meetings and also a speech from Mario Draghi in front of the parliamentary committee. On top of that, Angela Merkel is also due to have a press conference from Greece after she meets with the Greek president and prime minister. Perhaps something from those three events may be of significance. All in all, everything looks extremely calm. Perhaps too much so.

The IMF has downgraded the global growth forecasts for 2012 and 2013. This is hardly a surprise and in fact I believe that they were extremely optimistic with the new figures. Global growth for 2012 was downgraded to 3.3% from 3.5% and 2013 was downgraded from 3.9% to 3.6%. Of significant note was the fact that for 2012, the US was upgraded from 2.1% to 2.2% and the Eurozone was downgraded from -0.3% to -0.4%. These forecasts are contingent on two very important factors. The first one is that the Eurozone take decisive political and fiscal action towards more consolidation and integration. The second is that the US fiscal cliff is avoided. If these objectives are not met, then the IMF says that growth could "deteriorate very sharply".

From a technical perspective, yesterday price managed to make its way down below the 1.2950/60 support area to hit a daily low at 1.2937, but managed to slowly claw its way back up to close the day at 1.2975 just below the 1.2985 resistance which it hit in early Asian session and has been bouncing off since then in a tight 1.2985-1.2975 range. The next level of resistance above here is 1.3000/10 followed by 1.3030 and 1.3070. Beyond that further resistance comes in at 1.3090 and 1.3120. On the downside, immediate support comes in at 1.2950/60 followed by key support at 1.2900/10. Below that I see further support at 1.2875, 1.2840 and finally 1.2800/10

I expect the next move to be dictated by sentiment derived from comments from all three of today's major events as the economic data calendar is quite empty. Later today, the official Q3 corporate earnings season kicks off with an earnings report from Alcoa in what is anticipated to be a rather weak earnings season. In fact the market is expecting weak Q3 earnings reports from the majority of reporting companies. If so, then we should start to see most of the recent gains reversing in the days and weeks ahead.

As always, be well and trade safe.

Pete Jackson's Order Board:

EUR/USD: Bids 1.2950/60 (Asian sovereigns, supranational/ hourly trendline support) and 1.2920/30 (real money) sell stops below and through 1.2900. Likely buy stops through 1.3000 ahead of offers 1.3025/35 (Swiss/ Dutch names) and 1.3055/65 probable buy stops through Fri high 1.3072.

Today's Euro FX Option Expiries @ 14:00 GMT

EUR/USD: 1.2920, 1.2960, 1.2975, 1.3000, 1.3025, 1.3050, 1.3100

E/U H1:


E/U Weekly:

GM

i think today's supp is 2944/45, and prices should come to this mentioned price level b4 breaking the recent high, upside target for today is 3050/58/62

GL

trade safe and be happy!

I think what could happen is It could make a whip up and test with Draghi and Merkel and then back down. I think whips saws today could be very likely.

Does anyone know where we can listen to Draghi speaking in real time?

Should be here.

http://www.europarl.europa.eu/ep-liv...COMMITTEE-ECON

Does anyone know where we can listen to Draghi speaking in real time?

Thanks Tom

Well, you are welcome, but those idiotic pages aint working. Omfg!!!

Finally a momentum bar!

All my voodoo rain dances are finally working

Since we just broke well below 1.2944 should we wait for guidance Obi wan?

that was fun +23.8%

resistance now?? hmmm...

party may not be over yet.....

Like wtf? Congratz man.

I just entered long at 1.2926 Targets approximately yesterdays highs what do you think

Btw, this is how it looks in my chart. I am watching that white triangle, which right now seems to look like double top.

T

thanks! got lucky honestly, thing dropped like a cinder block. added shorts and moved SL to BE every 10 pips down. was risk free starting 1.295. love compounding