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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #31,661
  • Oct 8, 2012 2:45am Oct 8, 2012 2:45am
Rather a low liquidity movement taking adventage of Bank Holiday in Japan and USA, market is toying with the new guy His first day off and they are doing such thing to him, bad market!

But still again we bounced off trend line, may go down!
  • #31,662
  • Oct 8, 2012 2:50am Oct 8, 2012 2:50am
Quoting Haqu
Rather a low liquidity movement taking adventage of Bank Holiday in Japan and USA, market is toying with the new guy His first day off and they are doing such thing to him, bad market!

But still again we bounced off trend line, may go down!
Yes i forgot it was holiday in japan.
For me the fail to break the trendline is a big pointer to going down.
Even after the payrolls on friday we didnt see that much of a upmove.

USD/JPY’s post NFP rally quickly undone

Written by Pete Jackson
October 8, 2012 at 07:48 GMT

That little bit of euphoria for the patient USD/JPY traders out there has evaporated as the pair tumbles into the European open to lows of 78.25.
Talk is that the stops down through 78.20 are ‘massive’ but i would expect to see some chunky bids just below as well from the semi-officials (Kampo), as well as the usual breast beating words from MOF/BOJ officials if this move continues…
USD’s sitting around 78.28
  • #31,663
  • Oct 8, 2012 3:00am Oct 8, 2012 3:00am
Quoting brinks
Yes i forgot it was holiday in japan.
For me the fail to break the trendline is a big pointer to going down.
Even after the payrolls on friday we didnt see that much of a upmove.

USD/JPY’s post NFP rally quickly undone

Written by Pete Jackson
October 8, 2012 at 07:48 GMT

That little bit of euphoria for the patient...
Interesting. Payroll weren't good for real, they were low but in the range of economist predictions, i belive that market was suspecting that they would be much lower even and because they weren't good, but still weren't bad, we didn't have a big impact on U/J. Yeah, trend line is strong but we are in a area were i belive it may be broken. Last week candle was bullish after so many strange semi doji candles, let's see were it will take us!
  • #31,664
  • Oct 8, 2012 3:04am Oct 8, 2012 3:04am
Quoting Haqu
Interesting. Payroll weren't good for real, they were low but in the range of economist predictions, i belive that market was suspecting that they would be much lower even and because they weren't good, but still weren't bad, we didn't have a big impact on U/J. Yeah, trend line is strong but we are in a area were i belive it may be broken. Last week candle was bullish after so many strange semi doji candles, let's see were it will take us!
Yep time will tell.
I will be happy for a break up as i'm long from lower levels but wouldnt mind if it goes down to add a few more
  • #31,665
  • Oct 8, 2012 3:34am Oct 8, 2012 3:34am
Stops below 78.20 weren't so big, probably buy orders around 78.10-78.00
  • #31,666
  • Oct 8, 2012 3:39am Oct 8, 2012 3:39am
yup..buy orders are there cuz there is weekly s1 -ill add few long positions too good place.
I hope we dont go thru dat..lol
Quoting Haqu
Stops below 78.20 weren't so big, probably buy orders around 78.10-78.00
Early to bed, early to rise, keeps you healthy, wealthy and wise.
  • #31,667
  • Oct 8, 2012 4:41am Oct 8, 2012 4:41am
- Great, as always this pair is doomed to the downside.
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  • #31,668
  • Oct 8, 2012 5:34am Oct 8, 2012 5:34am
Quoting Ziko9o8
- Great, as always this pair is doomed to the downside.
Yep, Yen is ultra powerfull, beside bounce from trend line no reason for a drop today (or mayby the Holiday in Japan and USA are good time to make a strike) and it is going down as hell! Can;t say im suprised by that anyway Anyway nice enter at 78.80!
  • #31,669
  • Oct 8, 2012 5:47am Oct 8, 2012 5:47am
unfortunately the momentum seen in daily chart is enough to take the pair to 76 level.
  • #31,670
  • Oct 8, 2012 6:01am Oct 8, 2012 6:01am
Quoting Haqu
Yep, Yen is ultra powerfull, beside bounce from trend line no reason for a drop today (or mayby the Holiday in Japan and USA are good time to make a strike) and it is going down as hell! Can;t say im suprised by that anyway Anyway nice enter at 78.80!
- I totally agree with what you said besides, look at the charts.

- Cheers.
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  • #31,671
  • Oct 8, 2012 6:21am Oct 8, 2012 6:21am
Quoting holmes
unfortunately the momentum seen in daily chart is enough to take the pair to 76 level.
- Not so fast holmes, we have the 38.2 and the 23.6 fib levels besides the area between them, look at the chart to see how long did the price stay in this rectangle.

- Where's yo charts man? gives us something for god's sake.

- Cheers.
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  • #31,672
  • Oct 8, 2012 6:33am Oct 8, 2012 6:33am
Quoting Ziko9o8
- Not so fast holmes, we have the 38.2 and the 23.6 fib levels besides the area between them, look at the chart to see how long did the price stay in this rectangle.

- Where's yo charts man? gives us something for god's sake.

- Cheers.
We got also this: Yen index, kinda showing us what yen, and by that it pair will do
At one 1h the 200 sma is still holding and got a nice concentration of fibo lvls as support. I agree that there much to be taken before falling again!
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  • #31,673
  • Oct 8, 2012 6:34am Oct 8, 2012 6:34am
Forgot to give 1h chart :
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  • #31,674
  • Oct 8, 2012 6:36am Oct 8, 2012 6:36am
It have to fall!!
  • #31,675
  • Oct 8, 2012 6:39am Oct 8, 2012 6:39am
Quoting Haqu
Forgot to give 1h chart :
- Great views Haqu . How can I get the Yen Index?

- GL.
  • #31,676
  • Oct 8, 2012 6:40am Oct 8, 2012 6:40am
Quoting japiyfx
It have to fall!!
- Where's your charts?
  • #31,677
  • Oct 8, 2012 6:51am Oct 8, 2012 6:51am
Quoting Ziko9o8
- Great views Haqu . How can I get the Yen Index?

- GL.
Thanks a lot, happy to help anyone here, the more views the better, you can catch your own mistakes.

My broker isn't providing the chart for the yen index, so im simply using one from this site : http://stooq.com/q/?s=jpy_i, and analysing it in paint Maybe there is some better, but got use to that. . Beside im writing right now my own aplication for building and analysing charts, so maybe i will just take yen data and throw it into it!

On 4h the price is trying to get back over 200 sma, also stoped at support from 38.2 % fibo retracment of last bearish movement, which is near to 50 % retracment from bullish movement from last week. It should hold price there for a while i belive, looking at the past.
also the volumen is worth noticing, as for a holiday time the 4h candle had a big volumen, europe is playing with japan
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  • #31,678
  • Oct 8, 2012 7:00am Oct 8, 2012 7:00am
Quoting Haqu
Thanks a lot, happy to help anyone here, the more views the better, you can catch your own mistakes.

My broker isn't providing the chart for the yen index, so im simply using one from this site : http://stooq.com/q/?s=jpy_i, and analysing it in paint Maybe there is some better, but got use to that. . Beside im writing right now my own aplication for building and analysing charts, so maybe i will just take yen data and throw it into it!

On 4h the price is trying to get back over 200 sma, also stoped at support from 38.2 % fibo...

- Thanks.
  • #31,679
  • Oct 8, 2012 9:37am Oct 8, 2012 9:37am
Strenght of yen is amazing. Rising over 1% in a single day, taking all previous week gains, for a currency index is impresive. I think that in few h we will hear that
"current move in Yen is speculative and BoJ or/and MoF are ready to take decisive action against such atacks on Yen!". And for sure all the investors will be so scared that they will instantly start selling Yen!!
  • #31,680
  • Oct 8, 2012 10:45am Oct 8, 2012 10:45am
Quoting Haqu
Strenght of yen is amazing. Rising over 1% in a single day, taking all previous week gains, for a currency index is impresive. I think that in few h we will hear that
"current move in Yen is speculative and BoJ or/and MoF are ready to take decisive action against such atacks on Yen!". And for sure all the investors will be so scared that they will instantly start selling Yen!!
I am not sure it happens for now, this week BOJ and IMF are going to discuss the JPY strength and I think it yet has room to gain.
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