EurAnalysis

Have u been peeking in my trading journal? that is my exit strategy!!

crazy price action

NZDUSD is payin off on some simple PA over here

lookin for the .8131 if the lows there give

then lower lows as long at the .8151 holds

http://clip2net.com/s/2ngmF

1.307.. is crucial .... watch out for it above this its clearly bullish and this TL still has something in it to hold the PA , no offence reckon ?

Morning. We are approaching lower bound of the monthly zone @ 2957. Going to try scalp there .

T

No Offence taken

Mr. Piptrapper.

What happens when a country has negative real interest rates during a time of rapid economic expansion and why is that even possible ?

ECB rates were near historical lows in 2003-2005 (2% exactly)? CPI inflation was more than 3% during each of those years in Spain ?! Here we have real negative interest rates during economic boom in one of the Euro countries

hitting some big support i believe, look at historical resistance turned support closed most my shorts left a little on the table

http://www.24hgold.com/english/news-...+Hamilton&mk=1

The best clues as to how gold and silver will perform in this unlimited QE3 era are probably found in how they fared during QE1 and QE2. So let’s dig into the entire history of the Fed’s post-panic debt-monetization campaigns, and then see how gold and silver did within them. This first chart looks at the Fed’s balance sheet, which is where all the debt it has been monetizing ultimately shows up.

http://www.24hgold.com/24hpmdata/art...06PLA08151.gif

Make no mistake, quantitative easing is Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke’s response to the once-in-a-century stock panic that slaughtered the markets in late 2008. Prior to that, the Fed’s balance sheet looked very different. For the first 8 months of 2008, it averaged $875b. Meanwhile the Fed’s holdings of US Treasuries, the most important component of debt monetization, averaged $579b in pre-panic 2008.



The Fed started aggressively buying assets before it launched what later became known as QE1. Note the gargantuan spike in the Fed’s balance sheet between late August and late November 2008 in the dark heart of the stock panic. Over that insane 3-month period where the flagship S&P 500 stock index (SPX) plummeted 42.2%, the Fed’s balance sheet skyrocketed a mind-boggling 145.5%! QE had begun.



It formally started with a Fed press release on November 25th, 2008. Just three trading days after the stock markets slammed into their primary panic low (SPX 752), the Fed declared it would purchase $500b of mortgage-backed securities and $100b of direct obligations of the government-sponsored enterprises including Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. With all the other panic turmoil, this was widely overlooked.



In this area chart, the three different bond classes the Fed purchased in its QE campaigns are shown in different colors. Agency (GSE) debt is shown in green, MBS bonds in yellow, and the all-important US Treasuries in red. Note these three classes stack above within the Fed’s overall balance sheet in orange (which starts at zero). The red Treasury band doesn’t start at zero, but at the top of the yellow MBS band.



Soon after, at the December 16th, 2008 FOMC meeting, the Fed decided to slash its benchmark federal-funds rate by a staggering 100 basis points to zero. At that point the Fed had already expended all its conventional monetary-policy ammunition. Everything it did after that had to be some variation on debt monetization. And the great inflationist mocked as Helicopter Ben didn’t hesitate to rise to the occasion.



The stock panic should have ended in late October 2008, as the SPX had soared 18.5% in six trading days ending on Election Day. But the panic frightened half of Americans into voting for Barack Obama, a man who had openly campaigned on a Marxist and Socialist platform. He wanted to divide America with venomous class-warfare rhetoric and envy, and then steal the fruits of the productive to bribe the lazy for votes.



In the two days after Obama’s victory, the SPX plummeted 10.0%! It would ultimately plunge 25.2% over the subsequent couple weeks to a new panic low. And that again should have been the bottom, but when the Obama Administration took power in late January 2009 it terrified investors. Many who voted for Obama thought he would be like Clinton and be a centrist leader, but instead he swung sharply left.



As the US economy remained very shaky after that once-in-a-lifetime stock panic, the Obama Administration wasted no time in trumpeting asinine new plans. It wanted to greatly hike already-crushing income taxes on the investors, entrepreneurs, and small businessmen who create most of the private-sector jobs in America. It wanted to radically increase smothering regulations, and wanted Washington to take over health care.

Snippet:


The Fed was sensitive to the criticisms it is enabling Obama’s insane debt growth, so in QE3 it switched back to buying mortgage-backed securities from Treasuries for the first time since QE1. And though QE3 was open-ended, the $40b per month was pretty modest by QE1 and QE2 standards. They weighed in at $1750b and $900b respectively, yet a full year of QE3 would “only” amount to $480b if not expanded.



And it is this new open-ended QE3 campaign that has investors and speculators so excited about gold and silver. How will the precious metals fare with potentially unlimited new inflation about to be unleashed into the economy? One of the best ways to gain some insights is to review how these metals did during the rest of the Fed’s QE. So these next charts overlay the QE milestones over gold and silver.

http://www.24hgold.com/24hpmdata/art...06PLA08152.gif

During the time when the Fed’s original QE1 buying was underway, from late November 2008 to late June 2010, gold powered 50.8% higher! This is a heck of a run, but it certainly wasn’t all due to debt monetization. Gold was beaten down during the stock panic too due to flight capital from elsewhere igniting a monstrous US dollar rally. So gold was due to surge in the post-panic recovery anyway.


QE2, which was smaller but harder-core since it focused purely on monetizing Washington’s Treasuries, saw gold gain 24.7% during its lifespan. This is certainly an excellent gain over less than a year. Provocatively, just after QE2 ended gold surged for other reasons. That was summer 2011 when Obama refused to honor a deal with the Congress on reducing spending to secure a US debt-ceiling increase.


The first-ever threat of Washington actually defaulting on its debt drove enormous gold investment demand, but this metal soon grew very overbought. So it started correcting soon before the Fed launched Operation Twist. And the fact that Twist wasn’t QE3 really accelerated this gold selling. Over the entire Twist timeframe with no new monetization, gold drifted sideways to lower. But QE3 is new monetization.



Since gold rallied strongly during both QE1 and QE2, there is no reason not to expect it to respond similarly in the Fed’s young new QE3 campaign. 25% in a year, especially if QE3 is expanded early next year as Fed officials are already hinting at, seems pretty conservative given gold’s QE history. A 25% rally from the day before QE3 was announced would catapult gold up to a record high above $2150!

http://www.24hgold.com/24hpmdata/art...06PLA08153.gif

And being smaller and far more speculative than gold, silver has fared even better in the Fed’s debt-monetization era. This metal soared 79.5% during QE1 and a staggering 89.2% during QE2! Realize there was more at play during these times than just quantitative easing though. During QE1 silver was recovering from ludicrous stock-panic lows, and during QE2 this metal experienced surging popularity.


Still though given silver’s strong history of surging when gold does in inflationary times, I don’t think attributing 50% gains to the Fed’s QE is unreasonable. That is also in line with silver’s oft-seen leverage to gold of 2 to 1. Again assuming QE3 runs for a year, and gets expanded in early 2013, a 50% gain in silver from the day before QE3 was announced would catapult this metal up near $50 per ounce!


Quantitative easing is pure inflation, the classic debt monetization that has proved so dangerous and ruinous all throughout world history. Gold and silver have always thrived as currencies are being debased, as they’ve proven abundantly during QE1 and QE2. And despite starting out small, the open-ended nature of QE3 has really ignited inflation expectations like nothing we’ve seen in a long time.


So the psychology of QE3 is likely to drive big increases in investment and speculation demand for gold and silver as long as the Fed keeps this campaign alive. There is an excellent chance QE3 will ultimately push both these metals to new record highs, perhaps as soon as next spring. And of course as gold and silver power higher, the stocks of the miners bringing these metals to market should amplify their gains.



The bottom line is the Fed’s quantitative-easing campaigns in recent years have been hugely beneficial to gold and silver. No matter how the Fed wants to present it, QE is classic debt monetization. Naturally the precious metals thrive in times of inflation, and QE is as blatant as inflation ever comes. The more dollars created out of thin air, the higher they bid the far-slower-growing gold and silver supplies.

Based on your charts, I can actually see 1.26xx with reference from past movements.

Monetary policy has been broken in Europe ever since the Euro was initially adopted as the official single currency and then it broke even more as more European countries joined in.

To answer your question, I shall refer you to history. In short, if you have low interest rates in an environment of rapid economic expansion and no power to change monetary policy to compensate, you get exactly what we have seen in the past... a rapidly expanding bubble followed by a big burst. In Spain's case, it was a real estate bubble. Spain's current crisis is the end result.

Mario Draghi is absolutely correct when he says that the the transmission of monetary policy is broken. Unfortunately he is wrong when he says he can fix it. The truth is that there are only 2 ways to fix it.

1. Full fiscal and political union of all Eurozone nations.

2. Complete end to the Euro project and allow each nation to return to their legacy currencies, thereby regaining their authority over their own monetary policies.

Which one is less painful? Ultimately that is up to the people to decide, but I submit to you that if the Euro project fails, then the EU will fail along with it and protectionist economies will emerge. Furthermore, I would not discount the high probability of war after all the finger pointing starts. So, in my opinion, full fiscal integration is inevitable, but it will take a very long time before the people will allow it to be shoved down their throats.

Next time, password protect your brain before you turn on your WiFi access point

waiting for 46/48 for long scalps...

Do you have a set target for that? or is it a moving target?

Targets are always moving. By default I'm looking for 10 pip min, but in early London hours I'm closely watching momentum (m5 and m1) and looking for a retest of broken levels - openings, fibs, and notable M15 and H1 peaks/closes. Near 2950 I have thursdays London opeing level, rising H1 TL, and 200 ema.

Couldnt hold my horse and bought it like a noob just before break down (on signal m5 holding 38% fibo crap). But hey, noone is perfect and we are going up now. Hihihiii . Anyway, I will probably lock it at BE, as this was quite bad entry.

edit: Btw, h1 nice reversal candle. Fibo crap holds.

T

H1 closed quite bullish..Going to retest 83, 88..?

Entries around 1.2960 should prove good.

The Daily Forex Brief is written by FxPro's team in the City of London.

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Daily Forex Brief

London: Monday 08th October 2012

More nervousness in Europe

We are once again starting the European session with the single currency trading very tight to the 1.30 level. This comes despite the release of US jobs numbers on Friday, which were not too far from expectations, with the initial weakness of the dollar soon regained into the close of play. The new eurozone bailout fund (the European Stability Mechanism) comes into force today. But this is secondary to the standoff that's currently taking place between Spain and the European authorities, with markets likely to start getting a little more nervous regarding the fact that Spain does not appear to be moving towards a request for assistance. Today's trading session is likely to be relatively subdued, given holidays in both Japan and the US. Next key support for EUR/USD comes in at 1.2935.
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http://www.actionforex.com/action-in...0121008175896/

Daily Report: Euro Mildly Lower ahead of EU Finance Ministers Meetings

Asian equities opened the week broadly lower as investors are taking cautious positions ahead of earnings releases, which start with Alcoa tomorrow. Mild risk aversions took major currencies lower against dollar and yen. The World Bank lowered its growth forecast for East Asia and Pacific and noted that "China's slowdown this year has been significant, and some fear it could still accelerate". Also, it warned that "economic projections for EAP (East Asia and Pacific) are surrounded by considerable uncertainties, and a variety of risks continue to loom over the global and regional economy." Risk from euro was stemmed by recent policy moves but there are still main risk of "financial market disruptions" and US "fiscal cliff". Growth projection on China was revised to 7.7% this year and 8.1% in 2013, down from 8.2% and 8.6% respectively. East Asian growth projection was lowered to 7.2% this year and 7.6% in 2013, down from 7.6% and 8.0% respectively.

EU finance ministers are meeting today in Luxembourg. EU Commissioner for Economic and Monetary Affairs Rehn said that negotiations on Greece's EUR 13.5b austerity targets have "progressed well" and he expected the eurogroup to "give a positive and supportive statement" on such progresses. Rehn noted that it will take some more time for troika's report to finalize. He also emphasized that it's important Greece's situation is concluded in the coming weeks. Spain will also be a topic of discussion in the meeting. Spain's Deputy Prime Minister Soraya Saenz de Santamaria said last week that they'll need "all the elements on the table and also the certainty that it would materialize" before making a decision on bailout.

Last CFTC data showed that Euro net shorts was basically unchanged at 50.3k contracts on October 2. Sterling net longs rose for another week to 30.1k contracts, hitting another 2012 high. Yen longs continue to stay in range is rose slightly to 29.3k. Australia dollar net long dropped sharply from 63.7k, down from 2012 high of 89.6k in the prior week. Canadian dollar net long also dropped slightly to 101.2k, down from 105.3k. Overall picture supports that major currencies were basically in consolidation with Sterling quietly building up some strength. Meanwhile, Aussie's sharp fall in net longs should be noted, and that's even before RBA's rate cut.