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  • #3,681
  • Oct 5, 2012 3:13pm Oct 5, 2012 3:13pm
Quoting soso
What pair is that? Ain't visible in the chart.
I believe its *S*/*P*


  • #3,682
  • Oct 5, 2012 4:42pm Oct 5, 2012 4:42pm
Quoting lovejoy80
Indeed it is, hoping it can hold if hitting there until after London open on Monday.
Damn, price couldn't wait until Monday!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: ucad1.gif Size: 30 KB
  • #3,683
  • Oct 5, 2012 10:10pm Oct 5, 2012 10:10pm
Quoting lovejoy80
Damn, price couldn't wait until Monday!
Where would you place your order?

Based on M5 and M1 TFs, I had placed it at 0.98033 thinking that this point was the source of the move (supply) but ended up missing it by 2.1 pips.

M5 Chart Below
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #3,684
  • Oct 6, 2012 7:01am Oct 6, 2012 7:01am
Quoting Price.Action
Where would you place your order?

Based on M5 and M1 TFs, I had placed it at 0.98033 thinking that this point was the source of the move (supply) but ended up missing it by 2.1 pips.

M5 Chart Below
Annotated M5 chart below - does this make sense?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: UCAD M15.jpg Size: 83 KB
  • #3,685
  • Oct 6, 2012 7:21am Oct 6, 2012 7:21am
LJ,

I want to a question. How to you treat correlation. Lets say you have eurusd, gbpusd and audusd approaching similar demand level (same structure and time). Do you trade just one pair, or split the risk and trade all of them. Or maybe treat all three as a separate trade with full risk on every pair?
  • #3,686
  • Oct 6, 2012 8:57am Oct 6, 2012 8:57am
Quoting lovejoy80
Annotated M5 chart below - does this make sense?
Makes sense.

TT ? or enter below the bar that emerges from the zone and closes under the zone?
Attached Image
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  • #3,687
  • Oct 6, 2012 9:00am Oct 6, 2012 9:00am
Quoting adam777
Makes sense. TT ? or enter below the bar that closes under the zone?
Always a TT for an FTB.
  • #3,688
  • Oct 6, 2012 9:05am Oct 6, 2012 9:05am
Thanks
WARNING: Don't follow me as I'm just learning
  • #3,689
  • Oct 6, 2012 9:06am Oct 6, 2012 9:06am
Quoting Supernaut
LJ,

I want to a question. How to you treat correlation. Lets say you have eurusd, gbpusd and audusd approaching similar demand level (same structure and time). Do you trade just one pair, or split the risk and trade all of them. Or maybe treat all three as a separate trade with full risk on every pair?
I generally will decide on a max correlated risk limit and split this between 2 or all of the setups.

This correlated risk limit will not be the same as a single risk limit (it will be higher) but it will be lower than 3x single risk limits.

The way I look a correlated setups is that the fact there are multiple setups telling me the same thing in terms of 'risk' direction provides additional confluence and thus a higher probability overall setup. If for example I risk 2% per standard setup, this is why I'd likely risk 4% but spread it across 2 or all 3 of them.

Most will stick to 2% and spread it across all 3 or pick one. Wrong approach IMO. People really do need to think more entrepreneurial I find when it comes to trading...all this talk about trading being about capital preservation is BS - I trade to make money first and foremost so If I know I have a 75% hit rate with FTB's and I have 3 very similar ones occurring at once on correlated FX pairs that's says to me this is confluence and the likelihood of the overall 'risk' setup working out is higher than 75% - hence I increase my total exposure to the overall confluenced setup.
  • #3,690
  • Oct 6, 2012 12:56pm Oct 6, 2012 12:56pm
Quoting lovejoy80
Annotated M5 chart below - does this make sense?
Yes. More sensible explanation of how price behaved there. Saw your 2nd video on FTB after posting my query on your thread. Many Thanks !

Also, one more question. Where do you consider the supply to be located (and why)?

1. At the wick or
2. The Open Price of the Huge Down Bar

Thank You once again.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdcad 0.97991.gif Size: 20 KB
  • #3,691
  • Oct 6, 2012 1:02pm Oct 6, 2012 1:02pm
Is anyone here eyeing 1.3163 area on the EU?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu 1.3163.gif Size: 21 KB
  • #3,692
  • Oct 6, 2012 1:25pm Oct 6, 2012 1:25pm
Quoting Price.Action
Is anyone here eyeing 1.3163 area on the EU?
Actually no. That looks to me like a second time back in that area and once more would make it three already. Initial supply level was created Dec 13, 2011. It went back there during Dec 21, same year and Sep 19, 2012. And frankly I don't like the daily/weekly charts... Although if you look a bit above 1.3160 then it gets interesting. Just my thoughts.
  • #3,693
  • Oct 6, 2012 3:20pm Oct 6, 2012 3:20pm
Quoting Price.Action
Yes. More sensible explanation of how price behaved there. Saw your 2nd video on FTB after posting my query on your thread. Many Thanks !

Also, one more question. Where do you consider the supply to be located (and why)?

1. At the wick or
2. The Open Price of the Huge Down Bar

Thank You once again.
It's the wick as this is where price started to get strongly rejected - strong rejection = strong selling and the big down bar that followed us just an extension of the previous bar.
  • #3,694
  • Oct 6, 2012 9:05pm Oct 6, 2012 9:05pm
USDCAD has a very interesting technical picture at the current moment. It's trapped inside a triangle pattern. It's a very well defined formation containing last months and this months (so far) price action. The yellow bars represent last months bars. The blue ones, the alternating months. So this month is represented by the last blue bars.

Therefore, I expect a breakout soon. The main diagonal being the objective target size.

A similar situation occurred during the months of July and August only this time in Cable. The attached chart shows the breakout, the FTB(retest of the broken line) and how price reached its objective target with no problem. It was a consolidation pattern as clear as this one.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usd_cad_h4_triangle_06_10_2012.jpg Size: 69 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: gbp_usd_h4_triangle_06_10_2012.jpg Size: 81 KB
  • #3,695
  • Edited 6:55am Oct 7, 2012 6:04am | Edited 6:55am
Quoting Price.Action
Is anyone here eyeing 1.3163 area on the EU?
Waiting for eurusd (TT @1.2968 long) and usdchf (TT @0.9332 short) amongst others. Focusing on FTB till I master it.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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  • #3,696
  • Edited 8:18am Oct 7, 2012 7:33am | Edited 8:18am
Not sure about the stop on AUDUSD TT short @1.0326 FTB as per 4h charts
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  • #3,697
  • Oct 7, 2012 6:26pm Oct 7, 2012 6:26pm
Quoting Price.Action
Is anyone here eyeing 1.3163 area on the EU?
I believe it has a high probability of reaching the ~1.3130 area.

Regarding market precision, and price action, once again I'd like to emphasize how precise the market can be. Have a look at this trend line on daily that originally formed a triangle-like formation. It was composed by the highs of Feb, April and May. It was broken on a fourth touch in September and subsequent to that has already been retested.

I know this has nothing to do with the above quote, but I thought it would be interesting to share as monthy highs and lows represent significant technical levels.

On a close up look at the chart, one can see the retest of the above mentioned TL. Also, it is quite plausible to admit that a possible triangle formation is in the makings. A projected trend line is being formed by last months low and this months low. If the high of last month provide resistance or strong supply, than we will have a formation ready. I also have the projection of the inv. H&S around the top of last month.

Note that this is all just a projection for the moment, but I'd say it has a lot of potential of unfolding as projected.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eur_usd_d1_broken_tl_retest_06_12_2012.gif Size: 20 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: eur_usd_h4_broken_tl_retest_close_up_06_12_2012.jpg Size: 74 KB
  • #3,698
  • Oct 7, 2012 8:12pm Oct 7, 2012 8:12pm
LJ

Does this look like a decent FTB set-up?

Entry at 1.3045. SL at 1.3056.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Click to Enlarge Name: eu m15.gif Size: 26 KB
  • #3,699
  • Oct 7, 2012 10:14pm Oct 7, 2012 10:14pm
Quoting adam777
Waiting for eurusd (TT @1.2968 long) and usdchf (TT @0.9332 short) amongst others. Focusing on FTB till I master it.
usdchf TT short @ 0.9329
WARNING: Don't follow me as I'm just learning
  • #3,700
  • Oct 8, 2012 12:20am Oct 8, 2012 12:20am
Quoting adam777
usdchf TT short @ 0.9329
Touch Trades require liquidity, with bank holidays around I would be cautious.
Anything can happen - You never know
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