EurAnalysis

I still think this is because of Friday. I am not convinced it's done at 1.3074.

EUR/AUD to the moon.

And we can also consider it as an ascending triangle, same target

Agreed this is just a general wash & rinse...as she has broken the 50% level next stop the challenging 32% @ 314..

AUD and GBP being heavily shorted + risk-off saved the USD.

come on big Aussie position!! I see Sub parity in our future!!

http://clip2net.com/s/2mQmm


and got a bit of EU from today too...

http://clip2net.com/s/2mSb1

euro needs to get its act together though and go down a bit more quickly over the weekend

break down the red trend lines, would be a first sign of weakness, i think.
nice weekend to all

Please warm the bed for me will ya?

Nice trades today folks.

Am with you Wulfgar, this Euro defying gravity while the Aussie and now the kiwi are beginning to tank.
The runup and then weakness of the Dow, backing off from its high with no followthrough.

Might just be profit taking on a Friday, but for awhile there the Euro/USD looked as if it was breaking down internaly. All that extra support may have overcooked the Euro at this level.

ohenry beautiful chart
Rekon, everyone sees you, not an invisible man

Have a good weekend all.

.

E-Flirt alert!!!

It's E-Official by our Priest.

EU is a real crock of a pair right now

hard to trade accurately like ive been saying when the supply side is synthetically manipulated

Im hoping it follows suit.... all this massive CB intervention is just creating another bubble(has been for awhile now)....

I agree with you... to reduce everything to simple as I can make it I am looking at some candles now, and coupled with the "feeling" that eur usd must at least test 1.3070 again, I am long for the weekend. This "feeling" possibly has something to do with the fact that I watched the pair up there, and, believing it would go still higher, and having experienced pulling out and reentering higher at least once, did not take a trade.

Have someone a guide or a something similar that talk about an advanced use of RSI? I've always used stochastic but lately I'd like to learn something more about RSI, all that I can know from it and not only overbought/oversell and divergence because I already know them.. something like resistance/support (45-65?) etc..

If you don't have a guide it's ok your esperience too

NB= Please send it to me by private message so I can read and re read more times until i got it completely.


Thank you so much

EUR trend remains to the upside untill 1.3150 n above. immediate support is at 1.3000 n 1.2950. Happy weekend 2 u all.

Swiss America's
http://www.swissamerica.com/images/p...0425025159.jpgGold News Daily
by DAVID BRADSHAW
Editor,Real Money Perspectives
10.5.12--Jobs Data Too Good To Be True! -Listen



Gold prices eased back Friday on profit taking and a flat dollar, stocks mixed despite best jobs "data" in 29 years. Gold last traded at $1,781 an ounce. Silver at $34.51 an ounce. Both metals inched higher last week.

Job growth remained tame in September, reports CNBC but a big drop in the unemployment rate to 7.8% sparked a huge debate about what this meant for the economy - and the presidential race.

The government said the total number of workers employed surged by 873,000, the highest one-month jump in 29 years. The total of unemployed people tumbled by 456,000.
http://www.swissamerica.com/images/p...1005014929.png
Gluskin Sheff's David Rosenberg told Business Insider, "The economy miraculously boomed at its strongest rate since January 1983? If it's too good to be true..."

JOBS REPORT MET WITH SKEPTICISM - WeeklyStandard
This morning's jobs report released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics is being met with skepticism. The report found that, from August to September, the unemployment rate dropped from just above 8 percent to 7.8 percent.

In fact, when Labor Secretary Hilda Solis appeared on CNBC this morning, the first two questions for her were whether the books have been cooked. And the Wall Street Journal warns that these numbers should be taken "with a grain of salt."
"Unbelievable jobs number..these Chicago guys will do anything..can't debate so change numbers," tweets former GM CEO Jack Welch.

TradeTheNews.com Weekly Market Update: US Sees Strong Auto Sales and Surprise Drop in Unemployment; Europe Creeps Toward Next Round of Bailouts
Fri, 05 Oct 2012 16:33 PM EST

- Manufacturing and jobs data plus central bank decisions were the major highlights this week, as well as Mitt Romney's surprisingly strong performance in the first presidential debate. Over the weekend, the official and the HSBC China manufacturing PMI readings both remained in contraction territory below the 50 threshold. There were surprising improvements seen in peripheral PMI manufacturing data from Ireland, Spain and Italy, however continuing eurozone bailout dramas obscured the slightly better data, and Spain's September unemployment reading showed that the labor market is only getting worse. Spain continues to take its time on seeking a bailout, and making the semantic case that a bond buying program would be an aid package, not a bailout. In the US, both the ISM services and manufacturing indices for September ticked higher. The ISM manufacturing index popped above 50 after three months of declines, while the new orders index picked up considerably over the prior month. August factory orders fell 5.2% y/y by the most since January 2009, however much like last week's durable goods data the numbers were significantly impacted by the slump in demand for transport equipment. Ex transportation, orders rose 0.7%. The US September jobs report was the main event: non-farm payrolls of +114K more or less met expectations and the August numbers were revised higher. Meanwhile the decline in the unemployment rate to its lowest level since January 2009, at 7.8% from 8.1% in August, provoked a minor media firestorm as various conservative commentators questioned the integrity of the data. Deeper analysis of the report showed that the surprise drop was based in large part on a surge in part time employment, likely helped by an influx of more active jobseekers whose emergency unemployment benefits have been exhausted. For the week the DJIA gained 1.3%, the S&P500 rose 1.4% and the Nasdaq added 0.6%.

- September auto sales numbers from Ford and General Motors were about in line with expectation, with the former's coming in flat and the latter's up a measly 1.5%. On the other hand, Chrysler's September sales were up 12%, the firm's best September since 2007, and Japanese automakers surpassed expectations for September, bringing the industry annual rate for the month up to nearly 15M, the best pace since February 2008. Both GM and Ford noted that sales of small cars such as the Chevrolet Cruze and the Ford Focus were strong.

- Same-store sales data for the month were mixed for major retailers, and consumer demand appeared to be somewhat weaker than in the first half of the back-to-school season. Apparel names mostly met or beat expectations. Discounter TJX was a real standout, with a nice 6% gain. Department names were a different story, with nearly the entire sector missing expectations. Kohl's saw a significant y/y decline in comps while Target was the rare department store name that topped expectations.

- Shares of Hewlett-Packard fell nearly 15% between mid-day Wednesday and the end of the week after the company offered very poor 2013 guidance at the firm's analyst day. CEO Whitman warned that the firm's turnaround would take longer than expected and that FY13 would be a "fix and rebuild" year. Online game name Zynga and aerospace manufacturer Curtiss-Wright also lost ground on big guidance cuts, while apparel name PVH gained ground after the firm raised its Q3 outlook and its FY12 guidance.

- The big deal news of the week was an offer from Deutsche Telekom's T-Mobile USA to merge with pre-paid mobile firm MetroPCS. The deal is effectively a reverse merger, with the smaller MetroPCS buying T-Mobile. If the merger goes through, the combined company will be called T-Mobile, will have 42.5M subscribers and pro forma revenues in 2012 of $25B. Late in the week, reports circulated that Sprint may try to play the spoiler by launching a counterbid for MetroPCS, or could even consider making an offer for the combined T-Mobile/MetroPCS entity after their merger.

- There was little news in the ECB decision on Thursday, with rates on hold and no revelations at the press conference. ECB President Draghi spent most of the press conference laying out a strong verbal defense of the new OMT bond buying program from various northern European antagonists, emphasizing that rather than a capitulation to political demands the OMT enhances ECB independence because it reduces moral hazard and acts as a "credit enhancement" to government bonds. Draghi also clarified that the OMT would not apply to countries already under bailout programs, including Ireland, Portugal and Greece. The euro gained steadily all week, from just above 1.2810 on Monday to peak around 1.3070 late on Friday before trading off a bit.

- Wrangling between the Troika and Greece over additional austerity continued this week without resolution. Athens's cash position worsened, and Prime Minister Samaras warned that the country would be out of funds by November. Cyprus said that it would ask for an €11B rescue package, including €5B to recapitalize its banking system. In a rare piece of good news in the euro zone, Portugal made its first steps toward returning to public debt markets this week. Portuguese debt agency IGCP sold €3.76B in 2015 notes as part of a bond swap, its first public transaction since the EU/IMF bailout in 2011. However there is a strong chance that continuing economic weakness will require more bailout funding for Portugal, putting off full market access for a while yet.

- The Bank of Japan left rates unchanged at 0.0-0.1% and did not change its asset purchase target. The decision provoked little reaction in FX markets, nowhere near the amount of volatility that followed last month's surprise ¥10T expansion of the BOJ asset program. USD/JPY sold off 25 pips below ¥78.30 after the BoJ stood pat on its program and inflation target - the two levers that some of the more dovish analysts continue to fixate on for further easing. Notably, BoJ did cut its economic assessment for the second consecutive meeting stating that "activity is leveling off more or less."

- On Tuesday, the Reserve Bank of Australia shocked markets with an unexpected 25 basis point rate cut, its first since the June meeting. The RBA said the rate cut was needed due to the slowing global growth outlook over recent months. Notably, the RBA also added that terms of trade were down 10% since the peak and would fall further, and also projected the peak in resource investment is likely to occur next year. In the wake of the cut, AUD/USD crashed over 60 pips toward the 1.030 handle - its lowest level in nearly four weeks. By the end of the week AUD/CAD had sunk to 1.0150.

http://www.goldmoney.com/gold-resear...gmrefcode=gata

Determining the value of gold

2012-SEP-29

http://www.goldmoney.com/images/thum...2874XSmall.jpgWhen considering whether gold is a value investment, one needs to first recognise that gold does not have a balance sheet, management team, price-earnings ratio or any of the other things one needs to analyse before making an investment. Also, gold does not generate any cash flow, so it does not pay a dividend. We can therefore conclude from these observations that gold is not an investment. Indeed, it is something different, which means that normal investment analytical techniques cannot be used to determine gold’s value.

Value of course arises from an item’s usefulness, and gold is useful because it is money. Though only used as currency these days in a few places like Turkey and Vietnam, gold is still useful in economic calculation, or in other words, measuring the price of goods and services.

For example, when the Maastricht Treaty was signed in February 1992, one barrel of crude oil cost $19.00, €15.95 (Dm 31.30) or 1.67 goldgrams. Now it costs $91.79, €71.27 or 1.61 goldgrams, which makes clear that not only is gold useful in communicating prices, it preserves purchasing power. Gold has been useful in these ways for over 5,000 years, so it is logical to assume that gold will remain useful for the foreseeable future.

Some say that the gold price rises and falls, but they are grabbing the wrong end of the stick. It is the purchasing power of national currencies that rise and fall. Here is an analogy to make this point clear. When standing in a boat and looking at the shore, it is the boat (currencies) – and not the land (gold) – that is bobbing up and down.

Currency fluctuations occur in the short-term, but over the long-term, a currency’s purchasing power is continually eroded from inflation and other debasements inflicted on it, as is clear from the example above showing changes in the price of crude oil. There is, however, a subtle but more important point to make here.

Gold does not create wealth. It cannot possibly do that because it does not generate cash flow. Remember, gold is not an investment; it is money, and these two things are entirely different. So when the price of gold rises, wealth is simply being transferred from people who hold currency to people who hold gold. This wealth being transferred already exists. It is wealth held in the form of purchasing power.

Lastly, is gold good value? This is a question that each of us must answer by ourselves because value is subjective. But to me the answer is clear. Gold is indeed good value because it is a useful money, not prone to the problems perennially plaguing national currencies.

Further, gold is good value because it is not over-priced, a conclusion that can be reached by simply considering supply and demand. Even though the gold price has been rising this past decade, the supply of national currencies is being created much faster than the supply of gold.

Second, the demand for gold understandably continues to rise as it offers a safe-haven from the ongoing turmoil of the interrelated bank insolvency and sovereign debt crises that have been riling national currencies. These crises have not ended, so I expect this supply/demand relationship will continue. Therefore, gold will become more highly valued in the months ahead, meaning that its purchasing power will rise.

At some point in the future, which cannot be predicted, gold will become overvalued. Its purchasing power will exceed historical norms. To give but one possible example, maybe a barrel of crude oil will only cost 0.50 goldgrams or less. When that moment arrives, it will be time to reduce your gold holdings to buy undervalued investments or to purchase some consumer goods with your savings, which is the gold you are accumulating now while it remains undervalued. I suspect that we are still many months, if not years, away from that event because gold is far from being overvalued.


Author: James Turk

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Jim Sinclair’s Commentary
The employment number is phony and this is why. This is why I so recommend that you subscribe to John William’s service. He will guide you and be one of the first to realize it when things change.

- Phony Unemployment Rate Drop? Here Is How It May Have Happened

- With Deliberately-Inconsistent Numbers, Only the BLS Can Clear-Up the Reporting

- September Unemployment: 7.8% (U.3), 14.7% (U.6), 22.8% (ShadowStats.com)

- September Payroll Gain Was Statistically Insignificant

- M3 Annual Growth Notches Higher Again

COMMENTARY NUMBER 473
September Employment and Unemployment, August Construction Spending, PCE Deflator

October 5, 2012

Phony Unemployment Rate Drop? Here Is How It May Have Happened

With Deliberately-Inconsistent Numbers, Only the BLS Can Clear-Up the Reporting

September Unemployment: 7.8% (U.3), 14.7% (U.6), 22.8% (ShadowStats.com)

September Payroll Gain Was Statistically Insignificant
M3 Annual Growth Notches Higher Again

PLEASE NOTE: The next regular Commentary is scheduled for Friday, October 12th, covering September PPI and the August trade balance.
The Special Commentary reviewing economic, inflation and systemic conditions is planned for next week, the week of October 8th. As publication nears, more-specific timing will be posted in the schedule box on www.shadowstats.com.
Best wishes to all — John Williams

Opening Comments and Executive Summary. The August-to-September change in the headline unemployment rate almost certainly was not a 0.3% decline. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) knows the reported change in unemployment was wrong—other than by extreme coincidence—and it knows what consistent reporting actually showed. Only politics prevents the BLS from releasing the correct number, whether the unemployment rate actually declined, held even, or rose as predicted by consensus forecasters. The lack of transparency here in the data preparation allows for direct political manipulation.

The problem is that the BLS knowingly has been preparing the seasonally-adjusted headline unemployment numbers on an inconsistent and non-comparable basis for some time. The September number was prepared using a different set of seasonal factors than was used in coming up with the August number. The reporting difference can be large, when proper consistent month-to-month changes are used.

For example, consider the 0.4-percentage-point decline in the headline unemployment rate for November 2011. That drop in unemployment of that magnitude never was real. Once per year—with the release of December data—the seasonally-adjusted monthly unemployment rates are revised and restated, so as to be consistent. In December 2011, that 0.4-percentage-point drop in November was revised to a 0.2-percentage-point decline. As noted in the text excerpt following, this circumstance allows for outright manipulation of the data, with no cross-checking possible of the unpublished numbers being revised and re-revised every month. The December 2012 restatement of today’s headline unemployment decline will not be published until January 2013, well after the presidential election.

Indeed, with the Fed’s QE3 formally tied to bringing down the unemployment rate, and with presidential election one month from tomorrow, an unexpected and unusually-large 0.3-percentage-point plunge in the headline unemployment rate might raise more than a couple of eyebrows. The BLS has the correct number and could publish it. It had to calculate a consistent August 2012 number in order to estimate September 2012. Now would be a particularly good time for the BLS to come clean on its unemployment estimates, even if the numbers “confuse” data users. Avoiding such confusion is the stated reason as to why the BLS does not publish comparable monthly headline unemployment rates.
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