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Mkcky's GBP System.

  • #61
  • Nov 1, 2004 11:47am Nov 1, 2004 11:47am
From Oanda's FAQ:

Can I go long and short at the same time?
It is not possible to hold long and short positions at the same time. We are considering revising this policy, but cannot confirm if and when this will happen. If you wish to simulate this behavior, you are encouraged to open a sub-account under your primary account. To request this, please contact us and include your username and account ID in you request.



Correct me if I'm wrong. How do you plan to implement your system with these restrictions, or is it just theoretical?
  • #62
  • Nov 1, 2004 5:55pm Nov 1, 2004 5:55pm
Quoting mnale
From Oanda's FAQ:

Can I go long and short at the same time?
It is not possible to hold long and short positions at the same time. We are considering revising this policy, but cannot confirm if and when this will happen. If you wish to simulate this behavior, you are encouraged to open a sub-account under your primary account. To request this, please contact us and include your username and account ID in you request.



Correct me if I'm wrong. How do you plan to implement your system with these restrictions, or is it just theoretical?
This isn't an issue. As far as I know you're never long or short at the same time with this system. If a buy order get's triggered you're long on one trade, if the sell order get's triggered, by default this would stop you out of your long position far before the sell order was even reached. I think there wouldn't ever be a time where you would be long or short on both, as it isn't possible with the structure of this system.

- Fleetwood
  • #63
  • Nov 1, 2004 7:02pm Nov 1, 2004 7:02pm
Hello,

I have just gotten interested in forex trading - got forex.com demo account and been reading some online forex basics and couple of forums. I would like to try this system because it is so straightforward.

I have an elementary question; don't laugh!
Quote from the original post .....
"Place Buy Stop @1.8030 with a stop loss @1.8000 and Sell Stop [email protected] with stop loss @1.8000"

What exactly is a buy stop? In forex.com demo account I can choose type of order to be "limit" or "stop-loss", and there is "if --- then" type of order.

Would the above be then interpreted as :
place limit buy at 1.8030
if the trade is executed, then place stop loss at 1.8?

Thanks,
Great forum!
  • #64
  • Nov 1, 2004 8:39pm Nov 1, 2004 8:39pm
I agree that the word 'stop' when used in trading is unfortunate and confusing. It can be used to designate both the beginning and the ending of a trade.


Place a buy stop: means place an entry order to buy at a certain level... so that when the price moves to that level your trade to buy is activated. A sell stop would be an entry to sell.

Place a stop loss: means put an order to quit the trade at a certain level to keep a certain amount of loss from happening.

Place a limit: means put an order to quit the trade at a certain level when it is going in the direction you hoped it would. If you thought the market would move up to a certain level and then go down, you would place your limit just prior to the top level and when the price hit that level your trade would end.

Hope this helps.
  • #65
  • Nov 1, 2004 11:44pm Nov 1, 2004 11:44pm
Quoting mariovides
Then, we only must confirm if really "works", i encourage everyone to make a manual backtest using 30 min charts, or software backtest, some members start the backtest and never ended, we need to see the real results.
you mean we have all these members at Forex Factory and noone can code this thing and post the results?

i would do it, but i already know it doesnt work over the long run. you can not have a static stoploss like that. your stoploss has to be dynamic to adjust to changing volitility. the market was a lot different in 1998, and it will be a lot different in 2006. a robust system uses a variable stoploss, and you do this by using ATR in your calculation. same issue with the entry point above and below the market (30 pips). instead of a static 30 pips, it should be ATR/3 or something flexible like that. with these two things changed, we have a chance at a good system.
Relax and be happy.
  • #66
  • Nov 2, 2004 12:05am Nov 2, 2004 12:05am
Quoting merlin
you mean we have all these members at Forex Factory and noone can code this thing and post the results?

i would do it, but i already know it doesnt work over the long run. you can not have a static stoploss like that. your stoploss has to be dynamic to adjust to changing volitility. the market was a lot different in 1998, and it will be a lot different in 2006. a robust system uses a variable stoploss, and you do this by using ATR in your calculation. same issue with the entry point above and below the market (30 pips). instead of a static 30 pips, it should be ATR/3 or something flexible like that. with these two things changed, we have a chance at a good system.
Merlin, could you offer some suggestions from your experience based on ATR. For instance setting a stop loss at X times ATR or an entry as you mention at ATR/3 or a limit of Y times ATR?

LOU
  • #67
  • Nov 2, 2004 12:34am Nov 2, 2004 12:34am
More to the point, Merlin....

An explanation of how to use the ADR what 10 times or divided by 3 is actually showing us about the GPB/USD pair.

LOU
  • #68
  • Nov 2, 2004 1:01am Nov 2, 2004 1:01am

Nice site to visit is http://www.byte-research.com with an article on a channel breakout system http://www.byte-research.com/channel.htm . If you download the manual for the software and skip the software bits you'll find some information and a few ideas for trading systems. This person is using ATR a lot as well for stops etc.

  • #69
  • Nov 2, 2004 8:12am Nov 2, 2004 8:12am
Quoting merlin
you mean we have all these members at Forex Factory and noone can code this thing and post the results?

i would do it, but i already know it doesnt work over the long run. you can not have a static stoploss like that. your stoploss has to be dynamic to adjust to changing volitility. the market was a lot different in 1998, and it will be a lot different in 2006. a robust system uses a variable stoploss, and you do this by using ATR in your calculation. same issue with the entry point above and below the market (30 pips). instead of a static 30 pips, it should be ATR/3 or something flexible like that. with these two things changed, we have a chance at a good system.
Thanks for your observations Merlin,
I just would like to know if you are talking about daily ATR? and please confirm what was your specific recomendation : daily ATR/3 or other period ATR*3 i ask you that because in some trading text recommend this strategy but using the multiplication of ATR and you are suggesting the ATR divided.

mariovides
  • #70
  • Nov 2, 2004 8:21am Nov 2, 2004 8:21am
Merlin i forgot to ask for the number of bars of calculation of the ATR you use too, 7,10,14?.

Thank you in advanse
mariovides
  • #71
  • Nov 2, 2004 11:01am Nov 2, 2004 11:01am
Are we discussing the Average Daily Range -- ADR

or is it the ATR --- Average True Range

Sorry if I caused confusion.

LOU
  • #72
  • Nov 2, 2004 1:06pm Nov 2, 2004 1:06pm
Quoting mariovides
Thanks for your observations Merlin,
I just would like to know if you are talking about daily ATR? and please confirm what was your specific recomendation : daily ATR/3 or other period ATR*3 i ask you that because in some trading text recommend this strategy but using the multiplication of ATR and you are suggesting the ATR divided.

mariovides
if you plan to daytrade, which this system does, you should probably use a fraction of the daily range as stop and breakout threshold. For example, if the daily range is 100 pips, you can use a multiple of 0.33 (which is 3 used as a divisor) to calculate the breakout threshold and stop loss level. As for period, it should not matter too much. Maybe a 10 day ATR is good enough. It is just used to get an idea how volatile the present climate is and adjust your trading levels to match that.

Your contribution to this thread has been outstanding and I hope you can help us further. If you need 30 minute data, let me know. I have data for about 4 years, till Sept 2003, that I can email you.

Thanks a lot.
  • #73
  • Nov 2, 2004 5:25pm Nov 2, 2004 5:25pm
Quoting CrazyAboutForex
if you plan to daytrade, which this system does, you should probably use a fraction of the daily range as stop and breakout threshold. For example, if the daily range is 100 pips, you can use a multiple of 0.33 (which is 3 used as a divisor) to calculate the breakout threshold and stop loss level. As for period, it should not matter too much. Maybe a 10 day ATR is good enough. It is just used to get an idea how volatile the present climate is and adjust your trading levels to match that.

Your contribution to this thread has been outstanding and I hope you can help us further. If you need 30 minute data, let me know. I have data for about 4 years, till Sept 2003, that I can email you.

Thanks a lot.
Thank you, and yes 30 minute data can be very usefull for manual backtestings, my e-mail is [email protected].
Thanks again.
mariovides
  • #74
  • Nov 3, 2004 4:39pm Nov 3, 2004 4:39pm
Any chance of some results?
Regards, Ido
  • #75
  • Nov 4, 2004 3:16am Nov 4, 2004 3:16am
i try to leave the details up to you guys to figure out, but ill try to give some more clarity here

dont get wrapped up in the details of how many days to use for the ATR. if you use 10 days or 60 days, the system should still work. if it doesnt, thats a sure sign of the system's weakness. so just pick a number of run off into the sunset with it.

lets choose 20 days. when i last checked, the dailyATR(20) for the EURUSD was .0075. that means for the past 20 days, on average, the EURUSD had a range of 75 pips per day. depending on the overall system you are using, you may want to divide dailyATR(20) by 2, giving us 32 pips for a stoploss. if you stick to that formula for setting your stoploss, your system will automatically adjust itself for volatile markets, as well as calm markets.

there are all kinds of tricks like this to make your system robust, not just with setting your stoploss. one of the best things you can do to create a flexible system is to use absolutely no fixed values. ive never been able to completely eliminate fixed values, but the closer you can come the better.
Relax and be happy.
  • #76
  • Nov 4, 2004 3:23am Nov 4, 2004 3:23am
Quoting mariovides
but using the multiplication of ATR and you are suggesting the ATR divided.
if you are using dailyATR, you would divide. if you are using hourlyATR, you would multiply.

sorry for the confusion!
Relax and be happy.
  • #77
  • Nov 5, 2004 8:25pm Nov 5, 2004 8:25pm
>i try to leave the details up to you guys to figure out, but ill try to give some >more clarity here



>dont get wrapped up in the details of how many days to use for the ATR. if you >use 10 days or 60 days, the system should still work. if it doesnt, thats a sure >sign of the system's weakness. so just pick a number of run off into the sunset >with it.

ATR value and the chart make a huge difference... Must use 3-7... 10 or 60 days will not work with this system (must know the current market condition)... We must use 1day chart to get the ATR 3 value...

>lets choose 20 days. when i last checked, the dailyATR(20) for the EURUSD >was .0075. that means for the past 20 days, on average, the EURUSD had a >range of 75 pips per day. depending on the overall system you are using, you >may want to divide dailyATR(20) by 2, giving us 32 pips for a stoploss. if you >stick to that formula for setting your stoploss, your system will automatically >adjust itself for volatile markets, as well as calm markets.

e.g.:
ATR(3) - 1 day chart Fri 00:00
EUR/USD value=0.0120 bound must be 120x0.39=46.8 ==> +/-47

Results: It's hit 50 pips down and then 140 pips up today (w/monitoring)...

Now ATR(3) is 148

You will get a better results by using ATR3 or ATR4 in 1 day chart... Calculate the bounds by using 0.39 ... You can use different values for up and down bounds... (0.39-1.2) based on the market

>there are all kinds of tricks like this to make your system robust, not just with >setting your stoploss. one of the best things you can do to create a flexible >system is to use absolutely no fixed values. ive never been able to completely >eliminate fixed values, but the closer you can come the better.

ATR3 (1 day chart) and ATR value x 0.39 (up and down from the market price at 00:00 EST) works well for me... You can trade without stoploss, if you can monitor trades (with agressive MACD) -- to avoid stop hunting from the market maker...

Cheers,
  • #78
  • Nov 13, 2004 8:53pm Nov 13, 2004 8:53pm
how are things going with Mickey's GBP system? seemed to be no updates for awhile..does anybody have 1hr historical data for the 4 major currency pairs for this year or even the past years? (fxtrek or intellicharts data,preferred) would like to do some back test using Mickey's system...
  • #79
  • Nov 17, 2004 3:59pm Nov 17, 2004 3:59pm
I think it is not a profitble system, so no one continue to check it.
Regards, Ido
  • #80
  • Nov 18, 2004 10:36am Nov 18, 2004 10:36am
The markets have been gyrating a lot lately, and breakout type of strategies, atleast the ones I use, have been going through some drawdown. I expected this drawdown given that the earlier part of this year was a bonanza. So, from my observations, Mickey's system should also be suffering with its breakout brethren! That does not mean it is not a worthwhile strategy. Maybe some rigorous backtesting on intraday data will reveal better results. Merlin, are you game for that?

thanks Mickey for posting the system.
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