EurAnalysis

Aeternum: +120k

Are you telling or asking?

EurAnalysis NFP guessing game
5th October 2012

Entries:

CurrencyMan: +75K
HombreAlto: +85K
rekon67: +90K
Profitsonly: +92K
LC_Invest: +95K
Fxcode: +96K
PipTrapper: +97K
cgb: +100K
Thijs: +105K
mka_78: +111K
godrich: +115K
gugun555: +117K
Aeternum: +120K
Gofer Pips: +123K
100PipsADay: +138K
Vtmn: +157K


Deadline for entries is 10 minutes before release @ 12:20 GMT (13:20 London, 8:20 New York)

>

http://www.24hgold.com/english/news-...rd+Benson&mk=1

Snippet:










Benson's Economic & Market Trends

http://www.24hgold.com/24hpmdata/art...04PLA08521.jpg

"The most powerful force in the universe is compound interest"


- Albert Einstein



Not any more…"


- Ben Bernanke



Einstein was a genius known for his simple elegant expressions of complex natural laws. Indeed, what is simpler than E=MC²?

While it may be urban legend that Professor Einstein was reputed to have said that compound interest was the "eighth wonder of the world and the most powerful force in the universe", the point is well taken.


"Compound interest is the eighth wonder of the world.



He who understands it, earns it ... He who doesn't ... pays it"


- Albert Einstein


Snippet:

Einstein came to America during a time of great turmoil in Germany and Europe. Germany was turning into a National Socialist Party with a dictator and command economy. In a command economy, interest can be fixed by the government at zero or even negative, and savings accounts can be stolen and used to fund the wishes of the state. The river of investment that runs forward creating capital can be forced by state-created inflation to run in reverse, destroying capital. In other words, seed corn rots if it’s not eaten, and investment dries up because saving is for suckers.



Ah, welcome to 2012 America. The Fed has decreed interest rates at zero for four years, and promised to keep them there for at least another two. The Fed is still printing money out of thin air as well as buying long term treasuries. By locking the yield of the 10-year Treasury at 1.6%, it’s well below the rate at which staples like food, energy, utilities, transportation, education, and health care, are rising in cost.



Today, and as far as the eye can see, real inflation is well above interest rates. Instead of savers being rewarded they are being taxed, mugged, and systematically destroyed by continued low interest rates with no return on capital as the Fed tries to get people to spend and not save to stimulate the economy. Where capitalism in our country as Einstein knew it used to flourish, we’re now a land dedicated to eating its seed corn, and encouraging people not to waste their time planting acorns for the future.

+170 K

The_Genious +77K

EurAnalysis NFP guessing game
5th October 2012

Entries:

CurrencyMan: +75K
The_Genious: +77K
HombreAlto: +85K
rekon67: +90K
Profitsonly: +92K
LC_Invest: +95K
Fxcode: +96K
PipTrapper: +97K
cgb: +100K
Thijs: +105K
mka_78: +111K
godrich: +115K
gugun555: +117K
Aeternum: +120K
Gofer Pips: +123K
100PipsADay: +138K
Vtmn: +157K
Likerty: +170K


Deadline for entries is 10 minutes before release @ 12:20 GMT (13:20 London, 8:20 New York)

>

Ken + 98K

UE 8.3%

whats the prize, a toaster?

NFP: no comment, all am interested in is how market responds

USDX is nearly at major weekly support of 79.00 level the lastest short term European safe haven flight has been retraced.

EURO/USD does not respond to economic releases/fundamentals because it is about reserve currency reallocation and most of that from China which in the current political issues with Japan views the US as taking sides. The flat action that has occured for hours at a time over the past two + days is Central Banks taking up the huge money transfers that the market would not be able to absorb.

Obama vs. Romney is about selling a management team to America. It would do no good to get into specific issues as voters can hardly understand the economic issues in their own lives let alone at a National level. However America can not get going again unless management provides the vision that inspires people capable of self thinking, to understand that it is your country, time to get to work.

The debates provide the window into who the candidates are and what the values they hold dear that will guide policy decisions. People as well as Traders use emotion to decide more then cold hard logic. That is fact.
Emotion is the ultimate motivator and that is where the election process targets.

currently short EURO/GBP short NZD/USD long USD/JPY
would not touch EURO/USD without a daily dogi or reversal candle at a volatility extreme 1.3130 level or a sign that 1.3000 level holds against all assaults to get it higher.

Good luck today

I asked my cat and she put her paw on the + 130 k mark - and I agree with a nice PC anytime

$500,000 issued by BoH

They were also made much worse by unbelievably misguided policy moves and forecasts about the future by Fed officials — Alan Greenspan first and Bernanke second.

Who can forget Greenspan's 1990s-era speeches extolling the virtue of the technology and productivity "miracles?" Or the way he cited analyst earnings projections as justification for stock price gains — right before stocks imploded and those projections proved to be worthless?
And how about Bernanke's multiple assertions that the subprime and mortgage crises would be "contained?" Or his statements that the once-in-a-lifetime, bubble-icious gains in home prices were nothing to worry about?

http://images.moneyandmarkets.com/2544/image1.jpg"We've never had a decline in house prices on a nationwide basis." — Ben Bernanke, July 2005
In other words, we have concrete, real world evidence that printing too much money, and keeping interest rates too low, can only TEMPORARILY inflate asset prices. Then those prices inevitably collapse when they can no longer be supported by real world fundamentals!
Yet unbelievably, Bernanke is at it again!
He wants hard-working Americans like you to take your hard-earned funds and plow them into stocks, homes, junk bonds, and other higher-risk investments. Then rather than just let those assets rise and fall in value depending on underlying economic growth, corporate earnings, and so on, he is openly pledging to artificially inflate their value with printed money!

Don't believe me? Then here is the Chairman himself from his post-meeting press conference on September 13 ...

http://www.moneyandmarkets.com/berna...50623?FIELD9=1

That Is Just A Joke so please do not scratch me. I am very fragile. Meow !!!

+ 93

Friday, October 5, 2012 8:05:26 AM



Top Stories

Samsung expects record Q3 operating profit. Samsung (SSNLF.PK) expects that its Q3 earnings beat forecasts as operating profit jumped 91% to a record 8.1T won ($7.09B) and sales rose to 51T-53T won from 41.27T won a year earlier. Earnings were boosted by Samsung's mobile phone division, whose profit is likely to have doubled to 5T won as smartphone shipments passed 58M. Sales of high-end TVs were also strong.

Jobs figures expected to show U.S. is "running in place." Employment figures for September are due out this morning in the penultimate jobs report before the election, with economists expecting that nonfarm payrolls rose by 115,000 - below the 139,000 average so far this year - and that the unemployment rate rose to 8.2% from 8.1%. "We're running in place," says BofA's Ethan Harris. Since World War II, Ronald Reagan is the only President to win re-election with unemployment above 6%.

Sprint board to talk over Metro PCS bid. The Sprint (S) board has scheduled a noon phone meeting to discuss the possibility of renewing its pursuit of MetroPCS (PCS), the WSJ reports. When the board rejected what looked like a sealed deal for MetroPCS in February, Sprint's stock was just $2 a share, but after a rally to $5, progress on the network upgrade, and the iPhone investment paying off, directors may have a change in attitude.

Top Stock News

UnitedHealth in the lead for $4.5B Brazilian peer. UnitedHealth (UNH) is ahead in the race to acquire a part or a 100% holding in Brazilian insurer and hospital operator Amil Participacoes (AMPIF.PK), which has a market cap of 9.01B reais ($4.47B), Bloomberg reports. A deal would give UnitedHealth access to an expanding private-insurance market and offer growth opportunities to its Optum unit, a provider of technology and consulting to health systems.

Zynga zinged on profit warning. Zynga (ZNGA) shares sank 20% premarket after it yesterday warned that it expects 2012 bookings of $1.085B-$1.1B, below already lowered guidance of $1.15B-$1.225B. The company also expects Q3 revenue of $300M-$305M - above consensus - but forecast that bookings will amount to just $250M-$255M. Zynga blamed weakness in games within its web "invest and express" category, which include FarmVille and CityVille.

Gannett threatens Dish over ad-skipping tech. Gannett (GCI) has threatened to stop broadcasting on Dish (DISH) if the satellite TV provider doesn't drop the ad-skipping feature on its digital-video recorders or agree to pay large penalties. If Gannett makes good on its warning, Dish subscribers in 19 cities, including Atlanta and Washington, would lose access to various ABC, CBS and NBC-affiliated channels. Witching hour is midnight on Sunday.

Russia mulls opening up Arctic to foreign oil majors. Russia could make a radical shift in policy and allow western crude producers to own oil licenses in the Arctic, Energy Minister Alexander Novak has told the FT. Until now, Russia has awarded such licenses only to state-owned companies, with foreign firms taking just minority stakes in projects. However, Russia needs to attract Western know-how and money for it to fully exploit its Arctic resources.

Island spat hits Japanese car makers. The Senkaku-Diaoyu islands dispute between Japan and China hit Japanese car makers hard in September, with Mitsubishi's Chinese sales plunging 63% on year and those of Mazda (MZDAF.PK) by 35%. Toyota's (TM) sales skidded 40%, the FT reports, adding that the company will cut production in China by over half and suspend Lexus exports. Non-Japanese car makers have been benefiting from the spat.

Chambers gives clues to next CEO with Cisco shakeup. Cisco (CSCO) is reshuffling its management, with worldwide sales chief Rob Lloyd becoming President and head of development and sales, and COO Gary Moore being named as a president as well, while Americas sales chief Chuck Robbins will take over Lloyd's old job. The moves come shortly after CEO John Chambers said he might retire in 2-4 years, and named Moore, Lloyd, and Robbins (among others) as potential successors.

12 banks make "tolling agreements" over mortgage bonds. New York AG Eric Schneiderman has made "tolling agreements" with 12 financial institutions that will stop the clock on the six-year statute of limitations and allow authorities to bring civil fraud claims against the firms for any wrongdoing related to mortgage bonds from as far back as 2006, Bloomberg reports. The speculation follows Schneiderman this week suing JPMorgan (JPM) over its mortgage securities.

Credit Suisse hit by double whammy over mortgage bonds. Is Credit Suisse one of the 12? U.S. authorities are investigating Credit Suisse (CS) over its mortgage bonds, Reuters reports, with the bank also facing a lawsuit from the National Credit Union Administration for allegedly misrepresenting the underwriting and sale of such bonds to three unions that collapsed after paying over $715M for the securities.

Fiat eyes getting Opel for free. Fiat (FIATY.PK) intends to renew talks to acquire Opel from GM (GM) if the U.S. car manufacturer decides to sell the perennial loss maker, Italian newspaper Il Sole 24 reports, with Fiat hoping to get Opel for free. Fiat had tried to buy Opel in 2009.

Canada PM: Cnooc bid raises tough questions. Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper yesterday said Cnooc's (CEO) $15.1B bid for Nexen (NXY) "raises a range of difficult policy questions," and noted that "Canada is a significant investor in other parts of the world." Harper's comments come after the opposition New Democratic Party urged the government to block the deal.

GE draws good interest for $1.6B Thai bank stake. GE (GE) has attracted interest from Oversea-Chinese Banking Corp (OCBC) and Kuala Lumpur-based CIMB for its $1.6B, 25% stake in Thailand's Bank of Ayudhya, Bloomberg reports. The speculation comes after GE sold 7.6% of Ayudhya to institutional investors in September and said it was reviewing its "strategic” options for the remaining shares.

BHP boss sells $5.2M to pay hefty tax bill. BHP (BHP) CEO Marius Kloppers has sold $5.2M worth of stock in the mining giant's London and Sydney listed shares in order to pay off an expected U.K. tax bill for 245,000 shares that vested to him under a 2007 incentive scheme. The sale comes after Kloppers waived an annual bonus and BHP froze executive salaries due to "the prevailing business climate."

Top Economic & Other News

BOJ resists political pressure for more stimulus. The Bank of Japan has held off from further easing despite fears that the economy is contracting and in the face of increased political pressure, with Seiji Maehara becoming the first Economy Minister in nine years to attend the bank's policy meeting. As expected, the BOJ left its asset-purchase fund at ¥55T ($700B), as well as its benchmark interest rate at 0%-0.1% and monthly bond purchases at ¥1.8T.

Greece: Cash to last until end of November. Greece has until the end of next month before its money runs out unless it receives the next tranche of its bailout, PM Antonis Samaras has told German newspaper Handelsblatt. Touching a German nerve by comparing Greece to the Weimar Republic, Samaras says the ECB could assist by accepting lower interest rates on its Greek debt and roll them over, while the ESM could be used to recapitalize the country's banks.

Editors' Picks

QE3 Was A Clear Sign Of Failure

Today's Markets:

In Asia, Japan +0.4% to 8863.3. Hong Kong +0.5% to 21012. China closed. India -0.6% to 18938.
In Europe, at midday, London +0.5%. Paris +1.0%. Frankfurt +0.8%.
Futures at 7:00: Dow +0.2%. S&P +0.1%. Nasdaq +0.2%. Crude -1% to $90.77. Gold -0.2% to $1792.10.

Today's economic calendar:

Friday's economic calendar:
Monster Employment Index
8:30 Nonfarm Payrolls
1:00 PM Fed's Duke: 'Distressed residential real estate'
3:00 PM Consumer Credit

http://seekingalpha.com/article/9057...mail_wsb&ifp=0

Snippet:

When Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke announced a new round of unconventional monetary stimulus last month, he couched it in the language of grim necessity, saying:

The employment situation…remains a grave concern…Fewer than half of the 8 million jobs lost in the recession have been restored…5 million Americans have been unemployed for more than six months, and millions more have left the labor force—many of them doubtless because they have given up on finding suitable work.

That was the rationale for an aggressive new effort to buy $40 billion worth of long–term mortgage–backed securities per month until…well, who knows? And the chairman said the Fed would keep the federal funds rate—now at 0.25%—at “exceptionally low levels” through mid–2015, six months longer than previously planned.

In a speech in Indianapolis Monday that’s well worth reading, Bernanke claimed that

although monetary policy cannot cure the economy's ills,…we do think it can provide meaningful help. So we…are going to do what we can do and trust that others, in both the public and private sectors, will do what they can as well.

Trust whom? Congress? The Obama administration?

Bernanke’s new policy was an implicit admission that despite everything his agency—and Congress, and two presidents, with TARP, various stimulus programs, and tax cuts—had done, the economy and employment were still in a rut.
In other words—mine, not his—the Fed had failed to accomplish its goals. (I’m sure the chairman would disagree, although Fed spokespeople didn’t respond to my request for comment by deadline.)

Bernanke went to great lengths to defend his actions. In his speech at the Kansas City Fed’s annual economic meeting in Jackson Hole, Wyoming in August, he actually tried to quantify how successful his various rounds of “quantitative easing” were—in academic lingo that made the wonkiness of Wednesday’s presidential debate sound like a series of clever ad jingles.

He said simulations done by the Fed showed the policies “have provided significant help for the economy…As of 2012, the first two rounds of [quantitative easing] may have raised the level of output by almost 3% and increased private payroll employment by more than 2 million jobs, relative to what otherwise would have occurred.”

This is pretty striking—I’ve never heard a Fed chairman pound the table for his actions like this.

The studies he cited were primarily by Fed economists. One, by Hess Chung and several others, was published in an external peer–reviewed journal—and please stay with me for a couple of paragraphs here.

That study said the Fed’s first round of quantitative easing in 2009 probably lowered long–term bond yields by 50 basis points, or half a percentage point, suggesting that “private payroll employment is currently 1.8 million higher, and the unemployment rate three–quarters of a percentage point lower, than would otherwise be the case,” the authors wrote.

Two economists at the Boston Fed, Jeffrey Fuhrer and Giovanni Olivei, said that QE2, which ran from late 2010 through mid–2011, could “be expected to raise real GDP by 60–90 basis points.” That “implies a decline in the unemployment rate of 30–45 basis points” or “an increase of about 700,000 jobs,” they concluded.

So there you have it: A $2 trillion increase in the Fed’s balance sheet may have gotten you roughly 2.5 million jobs, about what several outside economists say the Obama administration’s stimulus plan saved or created.

It also was close to the 2 million jobs I estimated the Bush tax cuts may have helped create in the mid–2000s.
Who can claim any of these was a big success?

And that’s the problem. Three big policy initiatives based on three different economic philosophies all have failed to spur employment in the past decade.

1. President Obama’s various Keynesian stimulus initiatives, which without tax cuts amounted to about $600 billion, have yielded modest results.
2. Supply–side tax cuts, which Republicans still trumpet as the cure for whatever ails the economy, demonstrably did not produce many jobs during the Bush years. And by the way, did you know that President Obama’s own economic plans from 2009 through 2011 included over $500 billion in tax cuts,not including the two–year extension of the Bush tax cuts?
3. And now, the unconventional monetary policy of the Federal Reserve, based on the theories of the great Milton Friedman, have fallen short as well.

“I don’t think what the Fed has done has had a huge impact,” said James Hamilton, an economics professor at UC San Diego. “I think the steps they took have helped prevent the situation from getting much worse.”

I’m among those who think the Fed should be a little cautious and humble about what they can do. I don’t think the Fed can solve all the problems.

Ben Bernanke might agree. In his Indianapolis speech this week, he said: “Monetary policy is no panacea.” That’s true for supply–side tax cuts and Keynesian stimulus as well. These policies may have prevented the very worst—another Great Depression—but they still haven’t produced a good recovery.

Keep that in mind when you listen to presidential candidates push ideas that in recent years just haven’t delivered the goods.

NFP 125

ohenry: +104K

Pareto principle or the 80-20 rule applies to trading as well
80% of the problems come from 20% of the sources
EURO/USD is that 80% part
trading should be downright boring, a money machine.
EURO/USD is a never ending soap opera, it is not the only pair that exists