EurAnalysis

I'm going to take your advise from yesterday and trade other pairs for a moment as I have missed this rally ...

P.S. everything that have mentioned to trade yesterday was quite profitable today !

Cheers

There will be QE4 to replace Operation Twist.

potential EU turning point ?

Lol PT

you know that was exactly what i was looking for

easy easy...i see you just listened to bloomberg

but, yeah, could be on the cards when OT ends. As always, it'll all come down to the economy. Are you sure that we won't see 150+ jobs each month till year end with unemployment at 8.0% ?

Answer that question and you'll have an answer to your QE4. It's as simple as that.

I honestly don't know. We all said QE3 was impossible before election.

yeah, i'm aware of that...it's all about Rajoy. I just think that the yield on 10 year need to creep close to 7% again for a bailout request. Right now, their mind is that yields have made a top and it'll hit what they think is fundamentally justified which is 1%

LOL and the market moves 150 pips. We have HOPE!

I said they will launch QE if OhBummer is loosing . And I still think so. So right now I think QhBummer is loosing, so they want to fill in their pockets before they get thrown away. Really useless conspiration, but at least I am having fun.

T

I won't be surprised in this market.

where is my bear squad?!




I just love this picture

Hi PT, I see it going to retest 3171 (~70% probability), but some consolidation (or possibly retrace) may happen before that as H4 is currently OB.

I do what i can !

Yes indeed. I believe they are incredibly stupid and really think bonds made top .

But, it is all thanks to market distortions we ve been talking about a lot here. Its not just ECB backing up Spain with possible unlimited intervention after request. It is also FED QE, which helped a lot. Bank of England QE. And BoJ. Perhaps I could continue naming members of CB union. Ah, I forgot PBOC. They didnt acted. Yet. And China economy is showing signs of contraction... ("insert your own intervention")

So, in the end, Spain doesnt have to ask for a bailout for quite some time, because CB union will keep on intervening. At minimum, I think they will be intervening untill elections finish.

T

I have quit. I am such a whore. Always running with the ones who pay me .

Btw, 161% fibo Grade 3 + 61% fibo Grade 2. Nice combo for a finish of wave 3. Moreover, monthly zone should hold on weekly now. Seems like a nice place to stop bulls.

Hi PipTrapper,

It was not my intention to appear as if I suggested covert currency pegging. I was merely pointing towards the possibility that we here in this thread perhaps tilt more in the direction of technical and fundamental discussions. If so we could unwilling be leaving out or at least minimizing the discussion of political and military objectives that over time can and will influence the pair we follow on a daily basis.

People, societies, cultures, nations, organizations and counties come and go all the time in the greater scheme of things. We as individuals sometimes have a hard time grasping the larger wave lengths in such cycles. Such wave lengths can span centuries and as such most people will not have any experience with the effect unless and only to a certain degree if they have studied history.

It is in this perspective I offer a viewpoint about other powers that influence what we all do here every day.

Your #1 point. I fully agree. No currency manipulation can be hidden for long if at all to the reader with analytical skills.

#2) For Switzerland it’s a situation where there is little to hide and everything to reveal. It is in their interest to scare traders away from the cookie jar.

#3) You are right on the money. It’s all about debasing the dollar. China’s Yuan is pegged to the USD while undervalued by some 15% to 40% according to many sources. China has been reluctant to change this fact and at the same time they have some muscle to take the stand they do. At least so it appears. China is the source (not the only source) to the gaping US trade deficit. A deficit financed in part by China. Now not only is the US behind 20+% of the worlds GWP the USD is also the world reserve currency and to top it off the US is the largest military power in the world. So we see some serious muscle here to go up against China when need be. And time has come with a fiscal cliff marching head on, unacceptable unemployment, every new day a technology transfer from the US to China, debt to GDP in the 100+% areas and import greatly exceeding export in dollar value. All this calls for devaluation (among other things) so export can grow and import be reduced. At the same time many other countries have their own problems and consensus is hard to reach in connection with G20 meetings, IMF and the like. In other words we have a currency war at hand.

It is during such time perhaps wise to ask if fundamental and technical alone will influence the pair or if some political forum known or unknown will unleash stealth attack on the exchange rates. The question comes down to motives and strengths.

Along this path the US and EZ will muddle along side by side in the years to come (I place UK into this group as well) because of deep cultural connections. The differences will be kept in check and I would be very surprised to see any of the two falls of the cliff alone. If one goes the other goes with. Perhaps even Japan would join the club if a major forced devaluation or default would take place.

We could then analyze the US and the EZ within such scope and this might be a topic for future debates.

I’d like to emphasize that I agree it is hard to keep anything secret for long. Just see what happened to Strauss-Kahn from IMF and his ability to keep his private interest away from the public.

For now I will rest my case and enjoy my view while racing towards 1.33 where I have some longs I hope to exit.

Have a great day and many pips to all.

Almost TIME...