EurAnalysis

BB has many names. Bubbles or Helicopter Ben, for example. I like Bubbles the most.

BS is just BS.

The overlap is the worse IMO. I don't worry about stop hunting. I trade that as it is obvious what they a doing most of the time. I am simply talking price action and how it moves. US session is very poor and has WAY to much noise.

Asian session I can tell why they move the way they do most fo the time. Just I hate the days when little movement occurs.

US session has a lot of movement but to nowhere and erratic.

agreed with everyone, what a boring day

Btw, what i have been talking about here. Such a long runs without correction are often followed by at least 50% retracement. This would point us to the grey zone @ ,268. I was hoping to be there this week, but right now it seems we are stuck in a chop zone between ,281 - ,296. (While talking about chop, if I were scapler, damn, today PA was all day trying to form daily doji and daily open was great leading S/R).

T

The US session does appear to be one in which the EURO/USD becomes pegged within a narrow band. But this does not change overall market forces.
There is still movement in other crosses as a result and overvalued currencies such as Kiwi still exhibit price direction.
What can be done since there is lower volatility is it allows for a tighter stop and a larger position with equivalent risk. You can still harvest pips.
But it might be 15 pips at a time but times 10 rather then times 5, it still adds up.

On another note, although the source is Exxon Mobil so it does have a bias, this is what energy is going to do for America.
http://www.exxonmobilperspectives.co...ve_-_Full_Site

part of the long term fixing of America will be energy advantages. This will do more then any QE by the Fed


.

Speaking of that doji. Yesterdays daily candle rejected both monthly zone and 38% fibo jumbo, so doji today confirms weakness of bears. Still, day isnt over, nor the week and B-word is in the air, so still the same for me.

T

BS m5 doji consolidation. Really, I wish I could somehow make cash on break.

Tom, maybe your 5 minute channel is just not worth the effort. No direction means no probability of outcome.

add: will modify this, bring up an hourly with a 200sma. it shows EURO/USD slowly breaking down. So maybe you try a small position with a tight stop based upon the 5 minute with direction confirmation from the hourly. Multiple time frame analysis

consolidation breakout? nothing spectacular yet but good for a few short pips

*nevermind looks to be false

I am trying to enter with small positions from time to time, but not like right now. Maybe next week .

http://fxtrade.oanda.co.uk/analysis/...ical-positions

I think this particular tool is very interesting when looking at the divergence between open positions and where the actual market goes.

Look through the 1 year, 1 month, 1 week, and see how the market literally moves opposite of the lemmings and their open positions.

It seems as though once the market price and the open positions "cross over" it is the start of a trend.

For Example: Take a look at the GBP/USD 1 Year Time Frame with the Historical Positions Ratio tool. You will see the divergence basically throughout the entire year. Then drop the time frame down to 1 month. The market price is just coming down to meet the long positions opened by Oanda's clients. Now, drop it down to 1 week time frame and you will see that the market price is falling while open positions are climbing.

*I'm not saying to rely on this solely but it is a good indicator of where the Big Boys are taking market price in order to "knock out" the retail investors.

If interested, take a look at all of the currency pairs on all time frames and you will see the divergence I am talking about.

What FX Traders Can Expect from ECB & US Presidential Debate

Tonight, Barack Obama and Mitt Romney will be squaring off in their first Presidential debate. The U.S. economy will be in center focus with half of the event dedicated to quizzing the 2 candidates about their plans to create jobs and reduce the deficit. While many Americans will be glued to their television screens watching for who makes the most persuasive arguments or gaffes, Presidential debates do not usually have a major impact on the financial markets. Unless of course one candidate ends up completely embarrasses himself, making the other candidate a shoe-in for President. The chance of this happening is unlikely considering that both contenders will have prepped tirelessly for the event. Nonetheless, the debate will be main focus of media over the next 24 hours and an event not to be missed. Currency traders on the other hand shouldn’t expect much reaction in the U.S. dollar. Instead, the European Central Bank and Bank of England monetary policy announcements will be more important along with the minutes from the most recent FOMC meeting. The ECB is not expected to alter monetary policy but we are very interested in what President Draghi has to say.

The European Central Bank’s OMT program provides a backstop to Europe but its activation is contingent upon the request of a nation. In other words, the program is obsolete until a country (ahem, Spain) asks for help. At the same time, the central bank is faced with growing evidence of weaker growth. According to this morning’s PMI numbers, service sector activity in the Eurozone continued to contract with a deeper than initially reported slowdown in Germany and France. While the euro is still trading above its pre-OMT levels, the price action in European assets since the ECB’s announcement has been far from desirable. What we will be listening for in ECB President Draghi’s speech tomorrow is whether he feels the slowdown in growth and the market’s reaction to OMT is enough to warrant further action. We don’t believe that the central bank will ease again without giving the market time to digest the OMT program. Some analysts believe the ECB could cut interest rates and while we think a rate cut or another LTRO is possible, it is just far too early for another move. This does not mean that Draghi won’t be dovish – he probably will, but how far he will go in terms of signaling additional action will determine how the euro trades.

Meanwhile Greece continues to have a very tough time reaching an agreement with the Troika ahead of next week’s Eurozone Finance Ministers meeting. A deal is essential in securing a much needed aid payment that will help the country avoid bankruptcy. The main problem is that the 2 groups at the table disagree on how much the economy will contract next year. The Troika projects a 5% contraction in 2013 and Greece estimates that the economy will only contract by 3.8%. This difference is key in determining whether targets will be met – Greece is saying they can but the Troika feels otherwise. Between Greece and Spain, the Eurozone has more problems than it can handle.

IMO this pair is not properly positioned for any entry as it is in a very tight range at the mean price of 1.2900. Therefore it offers a terrible risk/reward ratio.

The next major resistance above this level comes around 1.2940 whilst support below comes in around 1.2875... Those are the point where an entry would offer decent RR.

Hey PT!

I will definitely be watching the Presidential Debate in a few more hours!

I'm also hoping for bad data from Australia (retail sales & building approvals) all for personal reasons... LOL

Real quick, what do you think about the post above yours in regards to the divergence seen with Oanda's historical position ratios and actual market price?

PT while the EURUSD should go down. I don't see it going down. I can understand if it was trading down in the same range as last week but the market not allowing it to trade that low again tells me they are protecting longs. Australian session ran it low and has never returned. New Month and week off a retrace from major up movment and they are going to make it go up. While I do believe ONE of these events will do a normal spike down which very well could be the ECB in the morning. It will only be stop hunting. I could be wrong but we are going to visit the top again which really is not that far away.

Yes I agree with all the the Euro sucks but I don't think overall they see this value as high but low. I know but for whatever reason. I just don't see it going down past 1.28 before it hits the top and I doubt it ever gets that low for a while. You had great news AND disappointment from Spain. If this was bound to go down we would be trading in a lower range and not with such massive resistance at 75 points above a low. I could be wrong.

Also notice they are setting a normal range for a breakout which USUALLY is for big moves as you know.

Sir8ob, There was a time when I started trading 6 months ago. Back then I figured this was easy and all I needed was some good entries and voila off shopping for a jet. Now you seem much more grounded than I was back then but I'd like to offer a few gems and priorities I learned along the way.

1) Spend more time on your own psychology than anything else.
2) Then learn and understand all about money management
3) Pay full attention to and understand all about position sizing
4) Then make a Business Plan
5) Learn about Technical trading
6) Learn about Fundamental trading
7) Learn that the News are there to confuse you
8) Learn about Political and Military motives and their impact on Currencies
9) Then create a Trading Plan and start trading
10) If you are not disciplined and follow your own plan then goto #1

Best of luck.

Thems is some pretty grand words friend. If you want to call somebody out, I implore it but please be a little more specific. I have worked with several traders in both forex and the stock markets for the grand total cost of absolutely nothing. I am not a paid promoter, not a paid advisor and have always done the same I set out to do, coach others as others have been so gracious to work with me.

I have matched charts and skill against a lot of the seniors here and have gained the respect of these people including FF admins. Sure, I can be a little gruff at times but so is Cold hard reality.

When you are ready to match either wit or chart, ACE, speak my name and I will be glad to take on the challenge.

Excellent Comments

I knew you earned the voucher when I gave it to you. Keep up the good work. Please let me know if I can be helpful.

Good Evening !!!

Very well put Magix. Cheers.

By: Peter Schiff

Tuesday, October 2, 2012



There never really could be much doubt that the current experiment in competitive global currency debasement would end in anything less than a total war. There was always a chance that one or more of the principal players would snap out of it, change course and save their citizenry from a never ending cycle of devaluation. But developments since September 13, when the U.S. Federal Reserve finally laid all its cards on the table and went "all in" on permanent quantitative easing, indicate that the brainwashing is widely established and will be difficult to break. The vast majority of the world's leading central bankers seem content to walk in lock step down the path of money creation as a means to economic salvation. Never mind that the path will prevent real growth and may ultimately lead off a cliff. The herd is moving. And if it can't be turned, the only thing that one can do is attempt to get out of its way.

The details of the Fed's new plan (which I christened Operation Screw in last week's commentary) are not nearly as important as the philosophy it reveals. The Federal Reserve has already unleashed two huge waves of quantitative easing (purchases of either government securities or mortgage-backed securities) in order to stimulate consumer spending and ignite business activity. But the economy has not responded as hoped. GDP growth has languished below trend, the unemployment rate has stayed north of 8%, and the labor participation rate has fallen to all-time lows. In the meantime, America's fiscal position has grown significantly worse with government debt climbing to unimaginable territory. Despite the lack of results, the conclusion at the Federal Reserve is that the programs were too small and too incremental to be effective. They have determined that something larger, and potentially permanent, would be more likely to do the trick.

However, in making its new plan public, the Fed made a startling admission. At his press conference, Ben Bernanke backed away from previous assertions that printed money would be effective in directly pushing up business activity. Instead he explained how the new stimulus would be focused directly at the housing market through purchases of mortgage backed securities. He made clear that this strategy is intended to spark a surge in home prices that will in turn pull up the broader economy. Such a belief requires a dangerous amnesia to the events of the last decade. Despite the calamity that followed the bursting of our last housing bubble, economists feel this to be a wise strategy, proving that a poor memory is a prerequisite for the profession.

But now that the Fed is thus committed, the focus has shifted to foreign capitals. Not surprisingly, the dollar came under immediate pressure as soon as the plan was announced. In the 24 hours following the announcement, the Greenback was down 2.2% against the euro, 1.6% against the Australian Dollar, and 1.1% against the Canadian Dollar. A week after the Fed's move, the Mexican Peso had appreciated 2.7% against the US dollar. Many currency watchers noted that more dollar declines would be likely if foreign central banks failed to match the Fed in their commitments to print money. On cue, the foreign bankers responded.
It is seen as gospel in our current "through the looking glass" economic world that a weak currency is something to be desired and a strong currency is something to be disdained. Weak currencies are supposed to offer advantages to exporters and are seen as an easy way to boost GDP. In reality, weak currencies simply create the illusion of growth while eroding real purchasing power. Strong currencies confer greater wealth and potency to an economy. But in today's world,no central banker is prepared to stand idly by while their currency appreciates. As a result, foreign central banks are rolling out their own heavy artillery to combat the Fed.

Perhaps anticipating the Fed's actions, on September 6th the European Central Bank announced its own plan of unlimited buying of debt of troubled EU nations (however, the plan did come with important concessions to the German point of view - see John Browne's commentary). On September 17th, the Brazilian central bank auctioned $2.17 billion of reverse swap contracts to help push down the Brazilian Real. The next day, Peru and Turkey cut rates more than expected. On September 19th, the Bank of Japan increased its asset purchase program from 70 trillion yen to 80 trillion and extended the program by six months. It's clear we are seeing a central banking domino effect that is not likely to end in the foreseeable future.

Although the Fed is directing its fire towards the housing market, the needle they are actually hoping to move is not home prices, but the unemployment rate. Until that rate falls to the desired levels (some at the Fed have suggested 5.5%), then we can be fairly certain that these injections will continue. This will place permanent pressure on banks around the world to follow suit.

All of this simultaneous money creation will likely be a boon for nominal stock and real estate prices. But in real terms such gains will likely not keep pace with dollar depreciation. Inflation pushes up prices for just about everything, so stocks and real estate are not likely to prove to be exceptions. Even bond prices can rise in the short term, but their real values are the most vulnerable to decline. In fact, even nominal bond prices will ultimately fall, as inflation eventually sends interest rates climbing. But prices for hard assets, precious metals, commodities, and even those few remaining relatively hard currencies should be on the leading edge of the upward trend in prices.

While I believe the Fed's plan will be a disaster for the economy, the silver lining is that it provides investors with a road map. As the policy of the Fed is to debase the currency, those holding dollar based assets may seek alternatives in hard assets and in the currencies of the few remaining countries whose bankers have not drunken so freely from the Keynesian Kool-Aid. We believe that such opportunities do exist. Some broad ideas are outlined in the latest edition of my Global Investor Newsletter, which became available for download this week. I encourage those looking for ways to distance their wealth from the policies of Ben Bernanke to start their search today.