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  • #53,021
  • Oct 3, 2012 12:45am Oct 3, 2012 12:45am
It all started with my childhood..lol flashforward.

If you read Alchemy of Finance and if you ever get a glimpse of Paul Tudor Jones Doc Trader (always gets taken off the web when I find it i will post) Soros own theory on Reflexivity is a great concept on riding bubbles up and down he has down really well in the Conglomerate boom bust, The REIT boom bust and of course various currency operations. He explains the theory better than I could

I only short AUD and currencies in general because the fall is much more severe and I love it personally when EXPECTATIONS and REALITY always diverge to extremes. To me this is where big money is made and where you are in a cushy zone for the herd to pick up.. Let me find a nice excerpt from his book one sec
  • #53,022
  • Oct 3, 2012 12:52am Oct 3, 2012 12:52am
Quoting jplazard
It all started with my childhood..lol flashforward.

If you read Alchemy of Finance and if you ever get a glimpse of Paul Tudor Jones Doc Trader (always gets taken off the web when I find it i will post) Soros own theory on Reflexivity is a great concept on riding bubbles up and down he has down really well in the Conglomerate boom bust, The REIT boom bust and of course various currency operations. He explains the theory better than I could

I only short AUD and currencies in general because the fall is much more severe and I love it personally...
Interesting... So there is substance to my observations about markets crashing harder and faster rather than a gradual rise up.
  • #53,023
  • Oct 3, 2012 12:54am Oct 3, 2012 12:54am
Quoting ForExtraPips
I've read that before, too. Something to do with the law of gravity. Throw something up, and compare the speed to it when it falls down. Just like price. That makes me want to be more of a bear trader.
Uh...

If you throw a ball up, it will come down at the same speed it was thrown. Gravity will decelerate the object until it begins to fall, then accelerate it until it reaches the point you threw it from. At this point it will be traveling the same speed as when you threw it up.

Same with currencies actually, I'm not sure what you guys are talking about. Stocks sure, they can fall faster than they rise, but currencies no way.

Forex doesn't have a bias apart from the underlying trend, which can be either bullish or bearish. Open any chart and you will see this.... For AUD to fall faster than it rises means USD must rise faster than it falls (disproving the idea that currencies fall faster than rising) as prices are relative.

eh, picture says it all.

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"Don't Panic..."
  • #53,024
  • Oct 3, 2012 1:00am Oct 3, 2012 1:00am
Alchemy pg 52-53
by soros
I have sketched out a typical boom/bust sequence. It can be followed by two curves that follow more or less the same direction. One represents Stock prices, and the other, earnings per share. It would be natural to envision the earnings curve as a measure of the underlying trend, and the divergence between the two curves as an indication of the underlying bias. The relationship is much more complex. The earnings curve incorporates not only the underlying trend but also the influence of stock prices on that trend: the prevailing bias is expressed only partially by the divergence between the two curves.-partially ist is already reflected in those curves. Concepts that are only partially observable are extremely difficult to work with: that is why we have chosen variables that can be observed and quantified-although, as we shall see later, the quantification of earnings per share can be very misleading. For present purposes, we shall assume that the ‘fundamentals’ in which investors are interested are properly measured by earnings per share.
  • #53,025
  • Oct 3, 2012 1:01am Oct 3, 2012 1:01am
A typical path for the two curves may be as follows. At first, recognition of an underlying trend is lagging but the trend is strong enough to manifest itself in earnings per share. When the underlying trend is finally recognized, it is reinforced by rising expectations. Doubts arise, but the trend survives. Alternatively, the trend waivers BUT reasserts itself. Such testing may be repeated several times, but here I show it only once. Eventually, conviction develops and it is no longer shaken by a setback in the earnings trend. Expectations become excessive, and fail to be sustained by reality. This bias is recognized as such and expectations are lowered. Stock prices lose their last pro and plunge. The underlying trend is reversed, reinforcing the decline. Eventually, the pessimism becomes overdone and the market stabilizes
  • #53,026
  • Oct 3, 2012 1:04am Oct 3, 2012 1:04am
Now replace earnings with econ numbers or future econ numbers. He even said this does not happen very much but when it does it is the greatest opportunity for the investor or trader EXHIBIT A










;
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  • #53,027
  • Oct 3, 2012 1:05am Oct 3, 2012 1:05am
Quoting 100PipsADay
Interesting... So there is substance to my observations about markets crashing harder and faster rather than a gradual rise up.
ABSOLUTELY...
Up the stairs and down the elevator shaft.
Just cast your mind back to 2008 and see the AUD tank from .9840 to .5980
in 3 months .
You think that's a one off? Nothing in FX is a one off ;-)
  • #53,028
  • Oct 3, 2012 1:07am Oct 3, 2012 1:07am
on AUD we are in the expectations lowered stage at present moment
  • #53,029
  • Oct 3, 2012 1:09am Oct 3, 2012 1:09am
Looks like it's going way up.

Daily EurAud
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Play the players, not the cards.
  • #53,030
  • Oct 3, 2012 1:19am Oct 3, 2012 1:19am
Perfect stock example the market kept giving increasing multiple on NEtflix and reality soon hit ppl in the face from the weekend announcement from the CEO in order to maintain the multiple they would have to raise subscription cost and BUST ...then self reinforcement in the other direction

Soros that man knows his stuff apart from his political endeavors He is a god in the markets and has a track record to back it.
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  • #53,031
  • Oct 3, 2012 2:13am Oct 3, 2012 2:13am
80.045 on Sunday open for Dollar we just crossed now trading at 80.05 lets see how it trades and if it pushes through come NY open than risk off agaiin for the US
  • #53,032
  • Oct 3, 2012 3:36am Oct 3, 2012 3:36am
Just sold some more on this retrace into NY and beyond!!


http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...45#post6064645
  • #53,033
  • Oct 3, 2012 3:40am Oct 3, 2012 3:40am
Quoting jplazard
Just sold some more on this retrace into NY and beyond!!


http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...45#post6064645
  • #53,034
  • Oct 3, 2012 3:41am Oct 3, 2012 3:41am
Yolo?
see that rejection on H1? TO THE PIP of my fibo....
seems like we're gona see my 1.0160 today afterall....
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We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #53,035
  • Oct 3, 2012 3:51am Oct 3, 2012 3:51am
I'm gonna catch me some zzzzz's... It's 11:00 PM out here in Hawaii.

Be back before ADP Non-Farm.

Green Pips to all!
  • #53,036
  • Edited 4:06am Oct 3, 2012 3:51am | Edited 4:06am
look at this pinbar defend nice bulls nice! we could see a minor retrace here and NY will follow through a bit but nothing huge on the upside


a bit early hourly will tell the story on where we close higher than this could cement this retrace a bit upwards
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  • #53,037
  • Edited 4:30am Oct 3, 2012 3:54am | Edited 4:30am
Quoting bguguen
Holy shit.... my analysis are so similar to yours.... though i did find the top at 1.06xx
we both agreed things are pointing down....
btw did you see my 75% certainty that the Australian Trade balance is gona be bad? lol... Predictable is the word....
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...66#post6063666
Quoting Tsar
I'm so Sorry... for Delay, Bro
Yesterday, I'm so tired and Late Night... (my Country GMT +7)

Here there are DAILY Chart & Multi Levels Chart.

Found Dark Cloud Cover Candle Signal in Price 1.0475
Watch out... Potential BREAK in Lower TL (in Demand area BLUE Line Box) Upward for Re-Test D1 Res
Attention in 3/8 Octave Murrey got Potential BREAK in there...

Play SAFE & Carefull b'cause THIS Week Volatile Market's...
Good

Now... Take a Look @ H1 Chart, Bro.
In Price 1.0192 as H1 (-2/8) Octave Murrey Math, No more Lowest than -2/8 in Murrey Math.

Aussie will Bounch !

And... See it Stoch, MACD and RSI in LOWEST Chart
My Calculation after 'Three' H1 Candles

As I told you, GBP/USD ; EUR/USD and AUD/USD Pairs as Related.
And Aussie got the Last Signal, Bro.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Always looking the GREAT, never left GOOD Point...
  • #53,038
  • Oct 3, 2012 3:58am Oct 3, 2012 3:58am
Tsar,

nice chart and I am glad now I only added 5c's instead of another 10

Pair just mentioned to me via skype that 4H aud/usd is forming a spinner which he said the market is undecided but it looks like it could retrace to 1.0270 which I will be a seller what are your levels on the upside/????
  • #53,039
  • Oct 3, 2012 4:13am Oct 3, 2012 4:13am
market generally positioned very short- short squeeze gonna come imo -retrace up to around 60 level, maybe even attempt to retest the 1.030 level.

have been long from 03. at current time doji forming on 4H.
CCI @ -226 on daily....buy the dips imo, stop @ 90
  • #53,040
  • Edited 4:31am Oct 3, 2012 4:18am | Edited 4:31am
Quoting jplazard
Tsar,

nice chart and I am glad now I only added 5c's instead of another 10

Pair just mentioned to me via skype that 4H aud/usd is forming a spinner which he said the market is undecided but it looks like it could retrace to 1.0270 which I will be a seller what are your levels on the upside/????
Bad Chart !
Too much Indies included in Here. But Support each other.
I never touch Trade AUS/USD Pair. Focus GU and EUR only, Bro.

Don't to be SELLER ! My Advice to be BUYER... for today.

Attention Price 1.0253 as D1Pivot H4Sup H1Sup Line. Potential Break in there.
TP in in H4 Res @ Price 1.0267 / Higher in H1 (1/8) Octave...
Always looking the GREAT, never left GOOD Point...
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