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AUD/USD

  • #52,921
  • Oct 2, 2012 7:13pm Oct 2, 2012 7:13pm
Hey my friends

In regards to the AUD news tonight

Watch for a reaction of the 1.0290 on good data (80.49on AJ)

We are currently sitting ontop of the 1.0248/1.0212 support level posted earlier(80.05/ 79.73 for AJ) Just a heads up that if we clear it this level and CLOSE below it the 1.0155 should show up rather quickly

Further down is the critical annual zone 1.0033

Good luck my friends
  • #52,922
  • Oct 2, 2012 7:21pm Oct 2, 2012 7:21pm
Balmain boy

I remember you posting some time back about the cash market pricing in OCT cut so you called it before most of us here I was a bit more conservative on when it was going to happen
  • #52,923
  • Oct 2, 2012 7:24pm Oct 2, 2012 7:24pm
Quoting Wulfgar
Hey my friends

In regards to the AUD news tonight

Watch for a reaction of the 1.0290 on good data (80.49on AJ)

We are currently sitting ontop of the 1.0248/1.0212 support level posted earlier(80.05/ 79.73 for AJ) Just a heads up that if we clear it this level and CLOSE below it the 1.0155 should show up rather quickly

Further down is the critical annual zone 1.0033

Good luck my friends
Totally agree with u i wont be surprise to see parity within 1-2weeks,
Baring good trade balance news, audusd could get back up to 1.03 but ill be loading short there
Baring bad news however would shoot this thing down fast
I am 75% certain that the news will come in worst than expected
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #52,924
  • Oct 2, 2012 7:27pm Oct 2, 2012 7:27pm
Still gotta see how it reacts to S&P correlation. Im bullish on commodities and equities.

When news came out I saw that money was poured into GBP so they are offloading AUD... meaning more rate cuts are expected. However the GBP lows already gave way so go figure... if it was strong buying 1.6130 would be supported.

Anyways expecting a push from ES side so AUD may get carried with it... now that rate cuts happen you can look to load long term shorts... hopefully wont be so expensive this time next year.
  • #52,925
  • Oct 2, 2012 7:30pm Oct 2, 2012 7:30pm
Quoting sidhujag
Still gotta see how it reacts to S&P correlation. Im bullish on commodities and equities.

When news came out I saw that money was poured into GBP so they are offloading AUD... meaning more rate cuts are expected. However the GBP lows already gave way so go figure... if it was strong buying 1.6130 would be supported.

Anyways expecting a push from ES side so AUD may get carried with it... now that rate cuts happen you can look to load long term shorts... hopefully wont be so expensive this time next year.
Long term shorts?? If today is bad news im eyeing for parity!! And 0.95 by year end, i think i've been shouting about 0.95 by year end since june, someguy called daddybear said i was nuts....
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #52,926
  • Oct 2, 2012 7:39pm Oct 2, 2012 7:39pm
Quoting bguguen
Long term shorts?? If today is bad news im eyeing for parity!! And 0.95 by year end, i think i've been shouting about 0.95 by year end since june, someguy called daddybear said i was nuts....
screw daddybear who cares what he thinks... but I didn't like what I saw with this last retrace.. so I didn't get in.. if I miss th eboat so be it... 1.06 didnt make sense I expected higher.
  • #52,927
  • Oct 2, 2012 7:41pm Oct 2, 2012 7:41pm
Time will tell on the specified time frame.
  • #52,928
  • Oct 2, 2012 7:50pm Oct 2, 2012 7:50pm
Quoting sidhujag
screw daddybear who cares what he thinks... but I didn't like what I saw with this last retrace.. so I didn't get in.. if I miss th eboat so be it... 1.06 didnt make sense I expected higher.
u may right.. so hold it!
trust me
  • #52,929
  • Oct 2, 2012 7:54pm Oct 2, 2012 7:54pm
Quoting sidhujag
screw daddybear who cares what he thinks... but I didn't like what I saw with this last retrace.. so I didn't get in.. if I miss th eboat so be it... 1.06 didnt make sense I expected higher.
Sidhu, 1.06 was the top, ill find you e chart in 15 mins later
there was a clear rejection to break above downwards trend
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #52,930
  • Oct 2, 2012 8:05pm Oct 2, 2012 8:05pm
Quoting bguguen
Sidhu, 1.06 was the top, ill find you e chart in 15 mins later
there was a clear rejection to break above downwards trend
CHeck the daily or weekly, I didn't see high supply area until 1.07... actually in around April I decided that was the level I was interested in. Sometimes you get it sometimes you don't. Those long term tf analysis are usually better.
  • #52,931
  • Oct 2, 2012 8:16pm Oct 2, 2012 8:16pm
Quoting bguguen
Sidhu, 1.06 was the top, ill find you e chart in 15 mins later
there was a clear rejection to break above downwards trend
Yep! You're right...

I posted the first two charts maybe two weeks ago or so. The last chart I just copy/pasted a minute ago.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSD Weekly.jpg Size: 199 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSD Weekly (MA - SR).jpg Size: 151 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSD Weekly (10-2-12).jpg Size: 187 KB
  • #52,932
  • Oct 2, 2012 8:16pm Oct 2, 2012 8:16pm
Quoting sidhujag
CHeck the daily or weekly, I didn't see high supply area until 1.07... actually in around April I decided that was the level I was interested in. Sometimes you get it sometimes you don't. Those long term tf analysis are usually better.
Here is why 1.06 was the top.... trendline resistances...

Here is the Weekly to show you why it topped out 1.06
If you look carefully, i circled places where the Aqua colour trendlines were tested.... and failed/topped out...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: audusd weekly.gif Size: 26 KB


Now if i open up the zoomed up chart on the Daily... you can see the candle and how it got rejected at that recent high on the Aqua colour trend line.
Also another thing... the reason why i was certain about today's drop in interest rate was also in the charts... see the yellow line? the move up thursday + the move down on Friday was an attept to take out stops above, but the close of friday was the important bit....
Monday opened and we closed weekend gap + we took out the Monday Daily Pivot... but we are being held down by that yellow line, it was a huge confluence... See that Red Line around 1.0393 thats the H4 EMA 200 and the Blue Line around 1.0383 thats the H4 EMA 55 thats why see see such a huge down today. Today we cleared out another Blue line... thats the Weekly EMA 55 a STRONG SUPPORT....
Thats why i think this thing is in for a speedy drop...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: audusd daily.gif Size: 23 KB
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #52,933
  • Oct 2, 2012 8:22pm Oct 2, 2012 8:22pm
Quoting bguguen
Here is why 1.06 was the top.... trendline resistances...

Here is the Weekly to show you why it topped out 1.06
If you look carefully, i circled places where the Aqua colour trendlines were tested.... and failed/topped out...
Attachment

Now if i open up the zoomed up chart on the Daily... you can see the candle and how it got rejected at that recent high on the Aqua colour trend line.
Also another thing... the reason why i was certain about today's drop in interest rate was also in the charts... see the yellow line? the...
Nice charts. I am in 100% agreement with you. They confirm my analysis as far as weekly resistance goes.
  • #52,934
  • Oct 2, 2012 8:27pm Oct 2, 2012 8:27pm
Quoting 100PipsADay
Nice charts. I am in 100% agreement with you. They confirm my analysis as far as weekly resistance goes.
Lol dude... this is the sort of chart i use to trade with... do my plotting on weekly and daily and trade Daily and H4
BTW see why im taking profit at 1.0225??
38.2% fib there and its been a previous area of suppor/resistance... so i better bag my profits there first then ill wait for pullback to load shorts...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: audusd daily.gif Size: 24 KB
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #52,935
  • Oct 2, 2012 8:31pm Oct 2, 2012 8:31pm
the forecast was for 700mil and they produce this WOW There is no way now by year end the Treas can say surplus at year end. Now at 50% retrace on Spot from YTD hi/lo
  • #52,936
  • Oct 2, 2012 8:32pm Oct 2, 2012 8:32pm
Quoting bguguen
I am 75% sure the trade numbers today gona trigger bearish move
There goes my 75% certainty that trade number is gona be bad... WELL DONE AUSTRALIA!!!
-2.0Billion!!!
WTF....
i removed my Tp at 1.0225, this thing is going to 1.0150 today

According to forexcrunch (Good analysis site..)
this baby can destroy today's 2nd Support zone...
http://www.forexcrunch.com/audusd-tr...ade-balance-3/
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #52,937
  • Oct 2, 2012 8:39pm Oct 2, 2012 8:39pm
Reason of recent drop.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Capture.PNG Size: 9 KB

  • #52,938
  • Oct 2, 2012 8:40pm Oct 2, 2012 8:40pm
1.0154 on futures if this breaks I am adding and on spot 1.0220 needs to be a daily close for an addition short on this

I had 1.0050 as my target later in the year but I will take it now if offered
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2012-10-02-TOS_CHARTS.jpg Size: 147 KB
  • #52,939
  • Oct 2, 2012 8:41pm Oct 2, 2012 8:41pm
Quoting Ken A
Reason of recent drop.


Attachment

like i said... i WAS 75% certain it was gona be bad... but this was worst than i thought though...
WAY worse.... it means CHINA completely shrank the demand of the Australian Exports.... sheesh...
thats bad... China's in trouble....
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #52,940
  • Edited 9:09pm Oct 2, 2012 8:46pm | Edited 9:09pm
Quoting bguguen
well i trade the daily now and all i can see is, no bull until i see RSI reaching and going below 30 on the daily chart...
right now its on approach with RSI around 35....
so yes my fibo at 1.0225 maybe an interesting point to eye, might get reactions there...
can you show me daily chart analysis?
I'm so Sorry... for Delay, Bro
Yesterday, I'm so tired and Late Night... (my Country GMT +7)

Here there are DAILY Chart & Multi Levels Chart.

Found Dark Cloud Cover Candle Signal in Price 1.0475
Watch out... Potential BREAK in Lower TL (in Demand area BLUE Line Box) Upward for Re-Test D1 Res
Attention in 3/8 Octave Murrey got Potential BREAK in there...

Play SAFE & Carefull b'cause THIS Week Volatile Market's & NFP will Release, Bro.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2012-10-03_Aussie in D1 Chart.png Size: 44 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 2012-10-03_Aussie Multi Levels Daily Chart.png Size: 23 KB
Always looking the GREAT, never left GOOD Point...
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