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AUD/USD

  • #52,881
  • Oct 2, 2012 9:55am Oct 2, 2012 9:55am
Futures side we could see another push lower by NY close this would be around 1.0260-50 area on spot. Also check out AAPL it is testing 8/24 support for what look like a rounding top or just a consolidation channel. Where appl goes es goes with.
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  • #52,882
  • Oct 2, 2012 9:57am Oct 2, 2012 9:57am
Quoting tradoholic
I received an email from one of the main bankers in Australia forecasting a cut of .25%, which is priced in at the moment, so not much change....
well id like to know your sources... he sounds reliable... but your interpretation of that 0.25% cut is flawed at best.... it does change... WHY?? well AUDUSD is already headed down considering they didnt lower interest rate last quarter so a drop in interest rate actually fuels the speed downwards...
in fact i wont be surprised to see parity in a week or 2 baring a bad NFP this friday.
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #52,883
  • Oct 2, 2012 10:34am Oct 2, 2012 10:34am
No that was not me I was in the cut camp
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...69#post6059669

Next comes the layoff> debt downgrade on corps. Iron ore needs to bounce back much more to avoid this
  • #52,884
  • Oct 2, 2012 10:55am Oct 2, 2012 10:55am
1.02 printed on futures and on Daily we are oversold below 30 so come NY close this should be an interesting defend from the bull camp. I say they will have a nice battle win taking us back to 1.03 but the trend is not their friend for some time
  • #52,885
  • Oct 2, 2012 11:30am Oct 2, 2012 11:30am
Quoting jplazard
No that was not me I was in the cut camp
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...69#post6059669

Next comes the layoff> debt downgrade on corps. Iron ore needs to bounce back much more to avoid this
its not gona bounce until china sorts themselves up.... Iron Projects in Australia are being cancelled, Australian Tourism taking a hit form strong exchange rate....
all and all Australia is in trouble if they dont start to stir domestic demand to keep economy in growth.... thats in Economics...
economic growth defined by C+I+G+(X-M) if X-M is keeping economy down, lowering interest rates would boost C and I to keep GDP up...
and so far i dont think theres any problem Credit-wise in Australia so they can afford to lower interest to boost Consumer Spending and Domestic Investments.
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #52,886
  • Oct 2, 2012 11:35am Oct 2, 2012 11:35am
Quoting jplazard
1.02 printed on futures and on Daily we are oversold below 30 so come NY close this should be an interesting defend from the bull camp. I say they will have a nice battle win taking us back to 1.03 but the trend is not their friend for some time
RSI on AUDUSD daily still above 30 so i think we have still more down move headed our way, my first target is 1.0225 (theres a fibo s/r there)

for me to EVEN consider bullish reversal, that will have to wait until RSI Gone INTO oversold region and come back INTO neutral meaning... RSI dips below 30 then back up above 30 then i would be keeping an eye out for an up move... so far NOTHING suggests upmove yet.
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #52,887
  • Oct 2, 2012 11:54am Oct 2, 2012 11:54am
I agree on the above if people recall and even the treasury said this massive increase in trade since mid 2000's was 'a one off' that is not expected to be the norm going forward. Aussies pay off their mortgages ahead of schedule most of them do anyways. New home buyers even though their is supply the debt is at levels on consumers where ppl need to be concerned.

The next step is corps than you will see the Gov dominos fall. 0.95 is a level where we could be at next year as Trade comes back to average mean levels
And on RSI I AGREE i set the levels for 80/20 because that weeds out false reversals and gives better entry for a reversal at least it works for me as one of my tools
  • #52,888
  • Oct 2, 2012 12:03pm Oct 2, 2012 12:03pm
Whoever holding longs before interest rates must be feeling terrible now.... people without stops... even more so....
lesson learnt? use stops!
Today was classic! it went up to take out the daily pivot and the weekend gap and THEN comes the news.... kaboom

heres my trading performance for the past 2 weeks
http://www.forexfactory.com/bguguen/89
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #52,889
  • Oct 2, 2012 12:10pm Oct 2, 2012 12:10pm
Quoting Wulfgar
watching the 1.0300-1.0277 area for a hiccup from this move...

if we break it the 1.0248 is up next

then the major is the 1.0200-1.0170

also for those trading the AJ the 80.05 should illicit some reaction
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  • #52,890
  • Oct 2, 2012 12:10pm Oct 2, 2012 12:10pm
People that don't use stops might have their own calculation such as low leverage and long term traders.
  • #52,891
  • Oct 2, 2012 12:11pm Oct 2, 2012 12:11pm
Quoting bguguen
Whoever holding longs before interest rates must be feeling terrible now.... people without stops... even more so....
lesson learnt? use stops!
Today was classic! it went up to take out the daily pivot and the weekend gap and THEN comes the news.... kaboom

heres my trading performance for the past 2 weeks
http://www.forexfactory.com/bguguen/89
wtg bg

you have come a long way since I remember you first posting on here... congratualtions
  • #52,892
  • Oct 2, 2012 12:12pm Oct 2, 2012 12:12pm
Quoting Ken A
People that don't use stops might have their own calculation such as low leverage and long term traders.
I learned long ago never to question anyones MM or trading style because both are INTENSELY personal decisions

Just be nice to people and only offer help when it is asked for.... this is a tough enough biz without having to meddle in others trading decisions
  • #52,893
  • Oct 2, 2012 12:15pm Oct 2, 2012 12:15pm
Quoting bguguen
glad to see someone agreeing but, buddy dont let fundamentals do all the talking.... the 1.0000 parity is a major psyche level with Bid/Offers so huge shit can reverse real fast for days...
but im betting we break below parity... in fact if you want
i have a End of Year target for the EURUSD at 1.20 (predictable) GBPUSD 1.45 (Woah da fuq?? lol yep....) and AUDUSD 0.9500 (we'll see...)

PS. its in the charts...
i still stand by it except GBPUSD.... GBPUSD forecast been moved to 1.55 (GBPUSD been strong for very strange reasons...)
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #52,894
  • Oct 2, 2012 12:15pm Oct 2, 2012 12:15pm
Quoting Wulfgar
I learned long ago never to question anyones MM or trading style because both are INTENSELY personal decisions

Just be nice to people and only offer help when it is asked for.... this is a tough enough biz without having to meddle in others trading decisions
  • #52,895
  • Oct 2, 2012 12:17pm Oct 2, 2012 12:17pm
Quoting bguguen
i still stand by it except GBPUSD.... GBPUSD forecast been moved to 1.55 (GBPUSD been strong for very strange reasons...)
Its very hard to make predictions of what Cable or Fibre is going to end up at.... An instrument that is having supply manipulated becomes very unstable to trade

As long as the CB's are meddling in the GBP and EUR Im sticking to the AUD , NZD ,and ES futures
  • #52,896
  • Oct 2, 2012 12:25pm Oct 2, 2012 12:25pm
Quoting Wulfgar
I learned long ago never to question anyones MM or trading style because both are INTENSELY personal decisions

Just be nice to people and only offer help when it is asked for.... this is a tough enough biz without having to meddle in others trading decisions
indeed btw.... Daddybear still has me ignored... so i cant post on his thread....
oh well... i realized world is shitty enough with corruption and manipulation everywhere, maybe better if i just leave people alone and get on with MY life instead....

But i still stand by what i say 0.95 by year end and market should come pretty close to it...
2013 is gona be a terrible year with US entering recession again, like predicting the UK's double dip recession, im not comfortable of US's slow growth and persistent unemployment....
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #52,897
  • Oct 2, 2012 12:28pm Oct 2, 2012 12:28pm
Quoting bguguen
RSI on AUDUSD daily still above 30 so i think we have still more down move headed our way, my first target is 1.0225 (theres a fibo s/r there)

for me to EVEN consider bullish reversal, that will have to wait until RSI Gone INTO oversold region and come back INTO neutral meaning... RSI dips below 30 then back up above 30 then i would be keeping an eye out for an up move... so far NOTHING suggests upmove yet.
Support you with H4 Chart, Bro

Before I go to Rest
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Always looking the GREAT, never left GOOD Point...
  • #52,898
  • Oct 2, 2012 12:28pm Oct 2, 2012 12:28pm
Quoting Wulfgar
Its very hard to make predictions of what Cable or Fibre is going to end up at.... An instrument that is having supply manipulated becomes very unstable to trade

As long as the CB's are meddling in the GBP and EUR Im sticking to the AUD , NZD ,and ES futures
And some people here said theres no such thing as Stop hunts and Interventions/Manipulations in forex.... Cloggie saw it first hand how GBPUSD was manipulated in stupendous amounts...
maybe thats why he avoids trading GBPUSD now...

the GBP is the biggest Manipulation Hoax of all time and people being people are negligent to what the banks are actually doing behind (people have and will mostly stay negligent as long as we have leaders representing us intead of people having their own voices)
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #52,899
  • Oct 2, 2012 12:30pm Oct 2, 2012 12:30pm
Quoting Tsar
Support you with H4 Chart...

Before I go to Rest
well i trade the daily now and all i can see is, no bull until i see RSI reaching and going below 30 on the daily chart...
right now its on approach with RSI around 35....
so yes my fibo at 1.0225 maybe an interesting point to eye, might get reactions there...
can you show me daily chart analysis?
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #52,900
  • Oct 2, 2012 12:35pm Oct 2, 2012 12:35pm
Last month is expected the rate drop, but unfortunately missed the call last night. I went short NZD @ .828 because the pair typically drop in pairs. However, it went up. Shorted again @ .833 and closed them out at .826. Great profit. 1H AUD is pretty overextended. Went long for a short trade of 20-30 pips.
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