EurAnalysis

EUR getting boost off AUD

Bad data on AUD.

October 2nd, 2012

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MEGA INFLATIONARY GREAT DEPRESSION!!!



1. Even with the government’s spending, debt obligations are running far beyond the ability of the government to cover with taxes or the political willingness to cut entitlement spending. This will eventually cause an economic failure of historic proportion.


2. Federal Reserve and government responses to those crises also have destroyed global confidence in the U.S. dollar and otherwise have rapidly accelerated the pace of movement towards a mega inflation crisis in the United States.


3. In this environment of rapid fiscal deterioration and related massive funding needs, the U.S. dollar remains open to a rapid and massive decline, along with a dumping of domestic and foreign-held U.S. Treasuries.


4. The futility of QE3 was made clear by the financial markets’ reaction to the Fed’s announcement. The Real Dow, which is the Dow Jones Industrial Average divided by the price of gold, actually fell by 0.65% on September 13, the day that QE3 was announced. While the Dow gained 1.6% on the day, gold went up by 2.2%. In real terms, QE3 made the economic outlook worse, not better.


In my opinion -


The economy is already in recession, mega-inflation kicking in would quickly push the economy into a great depression.

Disruptions from uncontained inflation are likely to bring normal commercial activity to a halt.

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WHILE THERE ARE NO GUARANTEES...

LET ME BE SPECIFIC -

THE SAME WAY I SOLD SHORT THE S&P 500 STOCK INDEX IN NOVEMBER OF 2007 AT $1434.50 BEFORE THE ECONOMIC MELTDOWN...




I AM NOW SHORTING THE S&P 500, THE MIDCAP 400 AND THE NASDAQ 100.


IF IN FACT MY LONG TERM SCENARIO WERE TO MATERIALIZE THE MOVE DOWN WILL BE QUICK AND DEVASTATING...


ONLY THOSE WITH A LONG TERM PLAN TO PROTECT ASSETS/STOCK POSITIONS WILL SURVIVE...




DON'T BE THE LAST ONE OUT!

In the mean time -

Have a great week trading -

All the best -

Frank Petricca

It's really MULTI Charts included MULTI Pairs

Did you've trade 18 Pairs in Same the time, Bro ???

You welcome...

Good morning fellow traders!

I've been lurking this past week but have been reading and following all of the posts.

Today it looks like it was Risk Off throughout the majority of the day with some of the majors consolidating at best.

Two Major News Events: ADP Non-Farm Employment & ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI

I'm short NZD/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/JPY, AUD/JPY. & GBP/JPY. All fairly small positions. Looking to scale in if markets move in my favor, which is down, down, down...

Yesterday and today have been nice due to AUD Rate Cuts and AUD Trade Balance results!

PipTrapper must be fall asleep in the midle of his sentence of his morning update

good morning,
Think the market will at least test the 80+ USDX level at some point today, To close to where we are now not to make a run for stops below 1.2900.
Ideal for me is a test and rejection of that 200 sma hourly which price has been responding to lately. Target would be the 1.2850 level midpoint between monthly resistance at 1.30 and weekly support 1.2700

market should trade off technicals today awaiting tonights Presidential debate. so range trading is what am believing will result.
good luck

Good morning fellow traders,

Now that we've gone through two days of painful ranging consolidation with slow news and low volume, perhaps we can now get to business and pick a direction. Yesterday the Euro hopium addicts got prematurely excited over a leak from a Spanish official who suggested that Spain was preparing to apply for ESM/OMT aid this coming weekend to be in time to have their application considered at next Monday's EuroGroup meeting. Later in the day, PM Rajoy flatly denied it and it was at that point that the Euro did an about turn and started heading South at the same slow grinding pace at which it had headed north. So, all in all, pretty much a non-event as the Euro pretty much now sits at the same 1.2900 area it was at yesterday morning.

Taking a look at the bigger picture, I know I am starting to sound like a broken record, but for the benefit of those who did not have the opportunity to read my previous updates, there are just too many headwinds in the global economy for any sustained risk rallies. China's growth is not looking promising at all with both the HSBC and official Manufacturing PMI numbers showing contraction plus last night's Services PMI also coming in lower than expected, the prospects for a return to previous growth levels look very dim indeed. Add to that last night's Australian trade deficit figure, and you've got yourself an extremely accurate picture of global contraction. Europe tops the worst performing western economy with actual GDP contraction estimated to be around -2% annualized. Therefore with the US as the only major Western economy showing some GDP growth (+1.3% to +1.7%), this goes further to support my bullish USD sentiment. It won't happen overnight, but that is the emerging trend and it is fully supported by the underlying fundamentals as well as the cyclical technicals.

In the next few days we have some major risk events which will shape how quickly this pair will resume it's move back down to and possibly below the 2012 lows at 1.2041. I will not discount a move back up to the low 1.31xx area or even possibly as high as 1.3200, but that would probably only happen if the market sees a much higher chance of further Fed asset purchases or if perhaps Spain bites the bullet and requests aid. As I have mentioned before, such a rally would only compel me to reinforce my bearish sentiment and I would sell into it aggressively.

Today we get a sneak preview of the US employment situation through the ADP version of the Non-Farm Payroll report. In the recent past it has not properly correlated with the official NFP due mostly to the fact that the ADP version does not track public sector jobs. Last month the report indicated a net increase of 201,000 jobs in the private sector and this month we are expecting a lower number at 140,000 net jobs created. Obviously a figure greater than around 150,000 is going to be USD bullish whilst below 130,000 would not fare well for the reserve currency... unless it triggers major risk aversion, but in that case the JPY will be the obvious winner. Regardless, the majority of the expected effect will come when the government version of this number is released on Friday. Later in the afternoon, another very important piece of data (probably my favorite indicator) will be released and that is the ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI; a true barometer of strength of the services based economy in the US.

From a technical perspective, this pair is currently in an indecision zone. Looking at the hourly chart, there are two possible scenarios that can play out in the next couple of days. One is bullish to approx 1.3120 and the other is bearish to approximately 1.2630. Rather than write it all out here, I have attached two self-explanatory hourly charts below.

Best of luck today and trade safe.

Pete Jackson's Order Board:

EUR/USD: Offers 1.2910/20 and 1.2930/50 possible buy stops through 1.2970 ahead of stronger offers 1.2980/00. Bids from 1.2880 /90 some light sell stops through 1.2875 ahead of more bids 1.2850/60 and further sell stops through 1.2845 ahead of tech supp 200 day MA at 1.2823.

Today's Euro FX Option Expiries at 14:00 GMT:

EUR/USD: 1.2800, 1.2850, 1.2900, 1.2925, 1.3000

E/U H1 bullish projection:


E/U H1 bearish projection:


E/U Daily:

GM the overnight retrace to just under the 50% level on my hourly chart turned at the S1 level - positive divergence and increasing volumes confirmed the red hammer as a potential buy - so I did......I'll take partials in the 50% retrace of the fall / DP area and then watch the PA....

How the euro can go up with these bad PMI numbers ?

The numbers aren't so important, IMO the market is positioning for later news (ADP etc.).

GMA

Given this bearish divergence on the dollar I wonder if we now have seen the low for the day...

ok let's go short!!
at the end if the daily HIGH is reached we have a high low respect yesterday and new low looking at yesterday.
so this means go down!!!
but the day is still long ...everything could happend...

Why are you repeating an unsubstantiated post?

First - There was no new low yesterday it was a +ve close

Second - This is the EuroAnalysis Thread - so please give us your analysis.....without this thread becomes like the other Euro thread - a free for all......thanks

Iceland's CB thinking of rising rates in near future (now at 5.57%) - thats a spirit!

Price is a reflection of mass psychology, or the crowd in action.

This implies that Investors and Traders are looking ahead and taking action so that they can liquidate at a higher price when the anticipated news actually takes place.

Morning all...

Looks like one goes up the other goes up..
So risk off = gold down + e/u down! I.e usd strengthens!

Surely the usd should be sold for entry to equities!
Therefor selling of usd = e/u up!


Help!!

( self scaling plot of e/u + rhs = a/u over the period of the plot.)
I REALISE CURRENTLY RISK IN ON BTW!

For USD money is going to the US Bonds, commodities thus USD weak, EUR gaining strength.

October Month is a festive season in India, Gold Price will keep higher, lot of buyers will be there till December, that will make USD weaker.