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AUD/USD

  • #52,901
  • Oct 2, 2012 2:35pm Oct 2, 2012 2:35pm
Quoting bguguen
well i trade the daily now and all i can see is, no bull until i see RSI reaching and going below 30 on the daily chart...
right now its on approach with RSI around 35....
so yes my fibo at 1.0225 maybe an interesting point to eye, might get reactions there...
Congrat...
Finally you've got 'the Best' your Trading Style with Strategy
Always looking the GREAT, never left GOOD Point...
  • #52,902
  • Oct 2, 2012 2:44pm Oct 2, 2012 2:44pm
Quoting bguguen
indeed btw.... Daddybear still has me ignored... so i cant post on his thread....
oh well... i realized world is shitty enough with corruption and manipulation everywhere, maybe better if i just leave people alone and get on with MY life instead....

But i still stand by what i say 0.95 by year end and market should come pretty close to it...
2013 is gona be a terrible year with US entering recession again, like predicting the UK's double dip recession, im not comfortable of US's slow growth and persistent unemployment....

Back in march I was calling for the year of the USD; UJ at 95+, the UCHF at 1.15, the EU @ 1.00-1.05 and the GU @ 1. 3

I didnt think the CBs would be so heavy handed...

on the AU I let 1 longer term position sit from up high... .95 would give me a nice extended vacation...

we will see
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  • #52,903
  • Oct 2, 2012 2:50pm Oct 2, 2012 2:50pm
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...13#post6059613

Look for 1.0050 first than yes 2013 if the growth continues downward mid 90's is the next level for shorts. This is a position trade until the fundamentals improve. I understand the logic why would you short the highest yielding major currency when everyone is devaluing well the facts are simple. I don't want to be in a currency who is heavily dependent on Resource Exports and Banking that is a model for disaster
  • #52,904
  • Oct 2, 2012 2:59pm Oct 2, 2012 2:59pm
Quoting jplazard
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...13#post6059613

Look for 1.0050 first than yes 2013 if the growth continues downward mid 90's is the next level for shorts. This is a position trade until the fundamentals improve. I understand the logic why would you short the highest yielding major currency when everyone is devaluing well the facts are simple. I don't want to be in a currency who is heavily dependent on Resource Exports and Banking that is a model for disaster
I understand the logic and think your points are fair. I thought the same thing months back. However, I believe in this environment anything is possible. The US is growing more than any other EZ country - although small growth - and the Dollar is getting smashed. The Aussie's growth is clearly slowing down as I have stated many times, and as you do, but it should grow more than other major economies going forward.

On the other hand, I am short-term minded holding trades between 1 day to 1 or 2 weeks. I would still expect demand on 1-1.5% declines, even if it is to short again.
  • #52,905
  • Oct 2, 2012 3:04pm Oct 2, 2012 3:04pm
Quoting jplazard
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...13#post6059613

Look for 1.0050 first than yes 2013 if the growth continues downward mid 90's is the next level for shorts. This is a position trade until the fundamentals improve. I understand the logic why would you short the highest yielding major currency when everyone is devaluing well the facts are simple. I don't want to be in a currency who is heavily dependent on Resource Exports and Banking that is a model for disaster
THANK YOU!!!
does Nigeria Oil disaster ring any bell?? to them Aussie Bulls??
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #52,906
  • Oct 2, 2012 3:51pm Oct 2, 2012 3:51pm
Quoting bguguen
Whoever holding longs before interest rates must be feeling terrible now.... people without stops... even more so....
lesson learnt? use stops!
Today was classic! it went up to take out the daily pivot and the weekend gap and THEN comes the news.... kaboom

heres my trading performance for the past 2 weeks
http://www.forexfactory.com/bguguen/89
What rate are you referring too?
  • #52,907
  • Oct 2, 2012 3:55pm Oct 2, 2012 3:55pm
Quoting 4rextrader
What rate are you referring too?
the RBA interest rate decision we had today... it dropped by 0.25%, of which wasnt unexpected,
AUDUSD has been very predictable as of late... and the Drop we had in AUDUSD is one heck of a drop...
its a huge drop! the drop of 0.25% has never been priced in.... if it was priced in AUDUSD would've stayed around 1.03 for the pass 2 or so months.
Why? well china fundies are deteriorating and last quarter RBA didnt drop rates when China did drop theirs.... so RBA simply cannot delay their rate drop otherwise it'll worsen the australian economy further.... i was actually surprised the Australians are not bold to tackle their situation.... i would've wanted them to drop by 0.5% instead...
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #52,908
  • Oct 2, 2012 4:08pm Oct 2, 2012 4:08pm
Quoting bguguen
the RBA interest rate decision we had today... it dropped by 0.25%, of which wasnt unexpected,
AUDUSD has been very predictable as of late... and the Drop we had in AUDUSD is one heck of a drop...
its a huge drop! the drop of 0.25% has never been priced in.... if it was priced in AUDUSD would've stayed around 1.03 for the pass 2 or so months.
Why? well china fundies are deteriorating and last quarter RBA didnt drop rates when China did drop theirs.... so RBA simply cannot delay their rate drop otherwise it'll worsen the australian economy further.......
I thought so I was just double checking because I didn't see anything upcoming haha! Thanks for the clarification. I profited from it so I'm happy. How much longer do you anticipate the drop of AUD to continue before a retrace occurs?
  • #52,909
  • Oct 2, 2012 4:22pm Oct 2, 2012 4:22pm
Quoting 4rextrader
I thought so I was just double checking because I didn't see anything upcoming haha! Thanks for the clarification. I profited from it so I'm happy. How much longer do you anticipate the drop of AUD to continue before a retrace occurs?
i would watch 1.0200-1.0225 closely

1.0200 being a whole number and 1.0225 being a fibo s/r level that we have tested before,
RSI on the daily is on approach to 30, that gives me those mentioned levels.
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #52,910
  • Oct 2, 2012 4:25pm Oct 2, 2012 4:25pm
YTD Hi (1.0833) Low (0.9564) we are at 50% retrace.
From the 6/1 Bottom (0.9564) to the recent top (1.0578) we are at 61.8% this is big support we break this and 1.0154 the trend is down.

Trade data could weigh on the downside but if anything slightly positive comes out we could retest 60-80ticks easily for a range play.

50% retrace from the 6/1 bottom to the top is 1.007 so be very excited if ES starts to roll over more and risk continues downward.

Australian Futures side spot well you know the picture from my previous post
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  • #52,911
  • Oct 2, 2012 4:25pm Oct 2, 2012 4:25pm
Quoting bguguen
i would watch 1.0200-1.0225 closely

1.0200 being a whole number and 1.0225 being a fibo s/r level that we have tested before,
RSI on the daily is on approach to 30, that gives me those mentioned levels.
I saw RSI on the daily at 30 also, I'll pay a little more attention to the levels you mentioned.

Thank you for the help
  • #52,912
  • Oct 2, 2012 4:34pm Oct 2, 2012 4:34pm
BTW AUSSIE TRADERS ALERT!!
please read this.... this source has been spot on for AUDUSD!!!
http://www.forexcrunch.com/audusd-tr...ade-balance-3/
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #52,913
  • Oct 2, 2012 5:53pm Oct 2, 2012 5:53pm
well here we are guys... the rate cut is finally here... I didn't like the way PA lead up to it as I didn't get in I liked 1.07 but we missed it. I am a AUD bear for next 3-5 yrs... so it makes sense that a top would have this type of waterfall type pattern, because when it starts falling it will be nonstop.
  • #52,914
  • Oct 2, 2012 6:29pm Oct 2, 2012 6:29pm
Right now, i am waiting for the following zones

- 1.0300~1.0330, possible short

- 1.0195~1.0165, possible long

The 1.0195 zone would give a short term entry, while the 1.0300 would give a bit long holding for bear.
Outcome is not important at all, but correct technique is what only matters
  • #52,915
  • Oct 2, 2012 6:36pm Oct 2, 2012 6:36pm
Sidhujag,

I am glad your in this camp now for the foreseeable future.

I remember your post sometime ago and that was I will not be a bear until cuts come down the pipe so I am glad you are in this camp you offer great analysis
  • #52,916
  • Oct 2, 2012 6:42pm Oct 2, 2012 6:42pm
Quoting jplazard
Sidhujag,

I am glad your in this camp now for the foreseeable future.

I remember your post sometime ago and that was I will not be a bear until cuts come down the pipe so I am glad you are in this camp you offer great analysis
BOLD
thats the reasons why just .25
  • #52,917
  • Oct 2, 2012 6:45pm Oct 2, 2012 6:45pm
Quoting jplazard
No that was not me I was in the cut camp
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...69#post6059669

Hold on . You can't have it both ways .
You then went on to post this afterwards ;


Oct 1, 2012 9:03pm (22 hr ago)
jplazard http://www.forexfactory.com/images/s...ser_online.gif
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Member Since Jul 2009
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/9kt.gif 715 Posts

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I agree with the above statement no cut tonight than expect a big short cover from swap and forward market which will hit spot and futures for sure..
  • #52,918
  • Oct 2, 2012 7:04pm Oct 2, 2012 7:04pm
Quoting sidhujag
well here we are guys... the rate cut is finally here... I didn't like the way PA lead up to it as I didn't get in I liked 1.07 but we missed it. I am a AUD bear for next 3-5 yrs... so it makes sense that a top would have this type of waterfall type pattern, because when it starts falling it will be nonstop.
That is how the last fall went that just kept dropping to 0.95774 from 1.4606 in 5 weeks.

Let's see how today's trade numbers go...
  • #52,919
  • Oct 2, 2012 7:05pm Oct 2, 2012 7:05pm
Never underestimate the "Carry Trade."

*Due to the fact that a .25% rate cut has already been priced in roughly 65% during the past few weeks if they cut rates the AUD should weaken.

However, if they DON'T cut rates, I would expect a quick spike upwards.

Obviously if they cut rates, the longer term trade will be to short, but if they don't cut rates today, I would expect a violent spike towards the upside later today.

Often times fundamental data moves in correlation with the technicals, and right now the AUD is gaining strength against CAD, GBP, NZD. Also has formed nice support against the USD...

Although I am bearish long term on the AUD, I am expecting rates to remain unchanged this month which in turn will cause the AUD/USD to rise.

Target: 1.05 - 1.06

**Remember, the AUD strength doesn't necessarily come from their fundamental side of things. It is more than likely due to all of the recent USD bashing from all of the FED's excessive printing.


I was agreeing with his statement that if they DONT cut rates than yes the market will move up on short covering. I disagree with the above statement but the paragraph in bold in which he said no cut expect a trade higher I was fully on board with that statement...
I am not trying to play both sides I have not longed AUD/USD once since this top and have been a bear for some time. I expected Nov at the earliest for a cut but after Credit came out last week and looking at earnings from some Retailers I albeit last minute or a few hours said I expect a cut last night...
  • #52,920
  • Oct 2, 2012 7:06pm Oct 2, 2012 7:06pm
Quoting prive
That is how the last fall went that just kept dropping to 0.95774 from 1.4606 in 5 weeks.

Let's see how today's trade numbers go...
I am 75% sure the trade numbers today gona trigger bearish move
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
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