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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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EurAnalysis

  • #57,261
  • Oct 2, 2012 8:36am Oct 2, 2012 8:36am
Base move to the up tend is .5 at the high of yesterday and move to HH today at 1.5
  • #57,262
  • Oct 2, 2012 8:38am Oct 2, 2012 8:38am
Quoting rekon67
Nothing special, may be I only watch E/U thats why.
Now you being modest.. That there be a skill I would like to learn...please if you have any suggestions I'm here all week..thanks..
Those that say do not know. Those that know do not say.
  • #57,263
  • Edited Oct 3, 2012 5:58am Oct 2, 2012 8:39am | Edited Oct 3, 2012 5:58am
The new High on EUR/USD is now 1.29498 and I have added a second position of 100K at 1.29445 with my STOP at 1.2995

Option Expiry is at 10:00 AM and Europe is closed at 11:30 PM however I use NOON EST as my cut off point.

Gold is down now and I am watching it carefully. The Dow is up 36 now.

I have a drawdown on my first position of $99.00 US and my second position is in the money $70.00 now.

On edit I closed my second position at a profit of $91.00 US and that was in a period of 9 minutes. My first position is now in a drawdown of $75.00 US so I am $16.00 US ahead at this stage and my overall risk is lowered. I can exit my first position at 1.2920 and have a good profit.

I see that the Dow is only up 13 now so I added another position short at 1.29357 and my drawdown for my two open positions is $115.00 US so my Risk is $24.00 ($115.00 US less closed position and profit of $91.00 US)

I think this will give you an idea of my trading style.

I closed the three positions with profits of $91.00 and $60.00 and $46.00 for a total of $197.00 in 3 trades with very limited risk as I scaled in the 3 positions and then took profits as it reversed.

Capital at risk was $2100 and return was $197.00. I repeat these type of trades about 25 times per day based on capital under management of $50,000 US. On $250,000 US Dollars I do about 125 FX Trades a day or about 2500 a month.

We have some Risk Off at the moment. ADP might set the tone for today...
  • #57,264
  • Oct 2, 2012 8:40am Oct 2, 2012 8:40am
[quote=CurrencyMan;6061656
Another way to say this is that the greater the uncertainty the more money will flow into the 10 Year Us Bonds and the 30 Year US Bonds. That is of course to get better yield while your MONEY is safer parked there. One Day it will not be safe however that is another subject. That day will come when Yields on the 2 Year US Bonds are 3% or more !!![/quote]

Thanks for the posts today CMan.

So that I have this properly drummed in, a reduction in the spread twixt 2 and 10 year US bonds would indicate a higher degree of risk aversion (more flows to "safer" bonds) than if both 2 and 10 year bonds are reducing by equal amounts??
  • #57,265
  • Oct 2, 2012 8:40am Oct 2, 2012 8:40am
Quoting Gofer Pips
All hail Euranalysis librarian extraordinaire, do you have any books explaining Wyckoff price and market structures? If so, would you be so kind as to share? Thanks in advance.

I forgot who posted books earlier in thread and too dumb to find it.
Hi Gofer - try this thread from kill56 - its got almost every ebook you need...and loads if indys too.....for those that dont know, click on the blue paperclip on the top right and that brings up all of the posted indys, ebooks etc......

Cheers

Islander
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=246111
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #57,266
  • Oct 2, 2012 8:42am Oct 2, 2012 8:42am
Quoting CurrencyMan
The new High on EUR/USD is now 1.29498 and I have added a second position of 100K at 1.29445 with my STOP at 1.2995

Option Expiry is at 10:00 AM and Europe is closed at 11:30 PM however I use NOON EST as my cut off point.

Gold is down now and I am watching it carefully. The Dow is up 36 now.

I have a drawdown on my first position of $99.00 US and my second position is in the money $70.00 now.
target?
  • #57,267
  • Oct 2, 2012 8:43am Oct 2, 2012 8:43am
Quoting ohenry
Now you being modest.. That there be a skill I would like to learn...please if you have any suggestions I'm here all week..thanks..
EUR Overall Strength for the session (If Positive will try to create a HH)

We can calculate the Session Duration time and Market Intersection point = Timing (which is inevitable).
  • #57,268
  • Oct 2, 2012 8:46am Oct 2, 2012 8:46am
Quoting rekon67
EUR Overall Strength for the session (If Positive will try to create a HH)

We can calculate the Session Duration time and Market Intersection point = Timing (which is inevitable).
you short now?
  • #57,269
  • Oct 2, 2012 8:46am Oct 2, 2012 8:46am
Quoting Ken A
If you are only trading Euro pairs, EZ Bonds are important as an indicator to Euro strength/weakness. So as Euro Equties priced in Euro. They are all important as to know where the money flows into.

US bonds to indicate USD strength/weakness.
But how should I interpret them? If the yields are low I have to think that there're a good money flow to EZ and vice versa?

For the equities market I still follow Eurostoxx and the indices of the individual countries (Living in Europe I see their change often in television too).
  • #57,270
  • Oct 2, 2012 8:48am Oct 2, 2012 8:48am
Quoting fxcode
PT am i gonna plot pivotlines on them or just the pair am trading?
No need to plot pivots. You only need to know which direction they are going so that you learn the correlation.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #57,271
  • Oct 2, 2012 8:49am Oct 2, 2012 8:49am
Quoting TRMZXT
you short now?
No I am not but seems good. I will now wait for 1.2960 test (in next 2 hours)
  • #57,272
  • Oct 2, 2012 8:50am Oct 2, 2012 8:50am
Quoting ohenry
PT what software do you need to have MT4 run independently across multiple monitors?
MT4 does not support chart detachment unless you install a plug-in. I have seen them but I don't like them.
I just install multiple copies of MT4 and run them independently.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #57,273
  • Oct 2, 2012 8:50am Oct 2, 2012 8:50am
Quoting rekon67
EUR Overall Strength for the session (If Positive will try to create a HH)

We can calculate the Session Duration time and Market Intersection point = Timing (which is inevitable).

On my 15m I'm seeing a bearish harami with the highest volumes of the day.......
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #57,274
  • Oct 2, 2012 8:50am Oct 2, 2012 8:50am
Quoting Ken A
If you are only trading Euro pairs, EZ Bonds are important as an indicator to Euro strength/weakness. So as Euro Equties priced in Euro. They are all important as to know where the money flows into.

US bonds to indicate USD strength/weakness.

PT, how many screens you can watch at the same time?
4
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #57,275
  • Oct 2, 2012 8:51am Oct 2, 2012 8:51am
Watching USDX, if it breaks 79.58, E/U might not stop at 1.2948.

Attached Image

  • #57,276
  • Oct 2, 2012 8:52am Oct 2, 2012 8:52am
Quoting CurrencyMan
I watch the Eurozone bonds more to tell me the stress in each of those countries such as Greece, Spain and Italy. As the Yield goes over 6% things are getting worse.

The REAL MONEY flow is from Equities (ALL) and US Bonds. There of course are other Asset Classes where the MONEY DOES FLOW IN AND OUT OF...

Oil and other currencies such as Swiss Franc and Yen. The Euro and the British Pound. The Canadian Dollar. The Australian Dollar.

Against all these FIAT CURRENCIES we have another currency to follow and more important understand and...
I have got it, thank you very much
  • #57,277
  • Oct 2, 2012 8:56am Oct 2, 2012 8:56am
Quoting Islander
Hi Gofer - try this thread from kill56 - its got almost every ebook you need...and loads if indys too.....for those that dont know, click on the blue paperclip on the top right and that brings up all of the posted indys, ebooks etc......

Cheers

Islander
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=246111
Thanks Islander!
  • #57,278
  • Oct 2, 2012 8:56am Oct 2, 2012 8:56am
Quoting Islander
On my 15m I'm seeing a bearish harami with the highest volumes of the day.......
1.2940 is a good point to Short, The Candle Pattern in my M15 it is not confirmed, so I want to wait for a Short.
  • #57,279
  • Oct 2, 2012 8:57am Oct 2, 2012 8:57am
Quoting rekon67
EUR Overall Strength for the session (If Positive will try to create a HH)

We can calculate the Session Duration time and Market Intersection point = Timing (which is inevitable).
When u say session are u referring to a given Time Frame or Trading Session & what is the percentage probability wrt positive = HH / negative = LL?

What are the units required to make this calculation? Again what is the percentage probability of the desired outcome?

Thx
Those that say do not know. Those that know do not say.
  • #57,280
  • Oct 2, 2012 9:01am Oct 2, 2012 9:01am
Quoting rekon67
1.2940 is a good point to Short, The Candle Pattern in my M15 it is not confirmed, so I want to wait for a Short.
I still have one eye on the 2960 and 2981 .. for today ..!
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