A short will surely come in-place soon after the bull has some fun, expect a 1.2932 before a move downwards.
- #701,062
- Oct 2, 2012 1:06am Oct 2, 2012 1:06am
- Joined Mar 2010 | Status: Trader | 42,434 Posts
2013-07-31 Today's Phrase of the Day: Hold off from any recycle bin experts
- #701,063
- Oct 2, 2012 1:16am Oct 2, 2012 1:16am
- | Membership Revoked | Joined Aug 2011 | 1,123 Posts
A short will surely come in-place soon after the bull has some fun, expect a 1.2932 before a move downwards.
ok no SL 
- #701,064
- Oct 2, 2012 1:16am Oct 2, 2012 1:16am
- Joined Jul 2012 | Status: CME seat owner | 6,134 Posts
now see today i dont short the bearish divergences and of course it actually goes down like it should.
..
..
Be hopeful in a winning position, and fearful in a losing position.
- #701,068
- Oct 2, 2012 1:52am Oct 2, 2012 1:52am
- Joined Aug 2008 | Status: Persist Until Something Happens | 17,898 Posts
Good morning fellow traders.
We may now officially welcome the RBA to the Easing club as a few hours ago they announced a 0.25% rate cut to 3.25% from 3.50%. Whilst I fully expected a rate cut of some sort, and it has been generally talked about in the media, it seems the market did not have such a move priced in... or at least not fully so. As a result the AUD/USD tanked 70 pips in the last 2 hours following the announcement and had some spill over effect in the other major currencies such as the Sterling and of course the Euro.
Equity markets are still teetering at the ridiculously unsupportable highs which I see as an almost perfect setup for a large correction at a minimum. This week (with the exception of today) is rife with risk events which should cause the markets to pull back some of their risk causing modest declines at a minimum and lending some strength to the USD as we move forward over the coming days. Overall I am still bearish the Euro and bullish the USD. I know it goes contrary to popular belief, but that makes it all the more plausible for me because when one side of a trade gets crowded, smart traders and investors look to go the other way. All that is needed is conviction of sentiment and a little bit of patience.
Yesterday the Euro failed to hold above 1.2925 against the USD after a rally off the 1.2800 lows on slightly better than expected PMI data out of Europe. Still unemployment in the EuroZone reached an all time high of 11.4% and last month's report was revised upwards to 11.4% from 11.3% which seemed to slow the Euro's ascent and reverse from the highs to settle at 1.2880 daily pivot support.
Today is a slow news day with only one high impact item on the agenda being the UK Construction PMI at 08:30 GMT. We will also get the Spanish unemployment data 07:00 GMT but I think everybody already knows it won't be a good number and as such should not have much impact other than to serve as a reminder of the realities.
From a technical perspective, the pair has found some solid support at the 1.2800 level. Besides being a significant psychological support, this level is also the 200 day moving average, the intersection of two old rising trend lines, the May 2012 highs and the 50% fibo level of the 2012 high (1.3485) to 2012 low (1.2041). As such it is significant support, but still I do not expect it to hold for long and fully expect to see it retested again this week and probably break through to proceed downwards for a test of the next major support level at the rising channel support around the next psych level of 1.2700.
On the top side, heavy resistance come in around the 1.2940 area which is represented by the 61.8% fibo level of the same 2012 high to low range. Further resistance is offered by a much older rising trend line and also the highs of 28th September. Before we get there we also have some resistance at the falling channel upper trend line which held and rejected price yesterday at 1.2939 and today comes in around 1.2925.
In closing I must mention that the market seems to be looking for any little excuse to chase risk. Whilst many will most likely jump on that band wagon and further support such a move, I would be more inclined to fade it.
As always, be well and trade safe.
Pete Jackson's Order Board:
EUR/USD: Offers from 1.2930/50 possible buy stops through 1.2960 ahead of stronger offers 1.2980/00. Bids from 1.2880 down to 1.2850 with sell stops through 1.2840 ahead of tech supp 200 day MA at 1.2823. More bids 1.2800./10 and further sell stops below.
Today's Euro FX Option Expiries @ 14:00 GMT:
EUR/USD: 1.2770, 1.2875, 1.2900, 1.2935, 1.2950, 1.3000, 1.3050
E/U H1:
E/U Daily:
We may now officially welcome the RBA to the Easing club as a few hours ago they announced a 0.25% rate cut to 3.25% from 3.50%. Whilst I fully expected a rate cut of some sort, and it has been generally talked about in the media, it seems the market did not have such a move priced in... or at least not fully so. As a result the AUD/USD tanked 70 pips in the last 2 hours following the announcement and had some spill over effect in the other major currencies such as the Sterling and of course the Euro.
Equity markets are still teetering at the ridiculously unsupportable highs which I see as an almost perfect setup for a large correction at a minimum. This week (with the exception of today) is rife with risk events which should cause the markets to pull back some of their risk causing modest declines at a minimum and lending some strength to the USD as we move forward over the coming days. Overall I am still bearish the Euro and bullish the USD. I know it goes contrary to popular belief, but that makes it all the more plausible for me because when one side of a trade gets crowded, smart traders and investors look to go the other way. All that is needed is conviction of sentiment and a little bit of patience.
Yesterday the Euro failed to hold above 1.2925 against the USD after a rally off the 1.2800 lows on slightly better than expected PMI data out of Europe. Still unemployment in the EuroZone reached an all time high of 11.4% and last month's report was revised upwards to 11.4% from 11.3% which seemed to slow the Euro's ascent and reverse from the highs to settle at 1.2880 daily pivot support.
Today is a slow news day with only one high impact item on the agenda being the UK Construction PMI at 08:30 GMT. We will also get the Spanish unemployment data 07:00 GMT but I think everybody already knows it won't be a good number and as such should not have much impact other than to serve as a reminder of the realities.
From a technical perspective, the pair has found some solid support at the 1.2800 level. Besides being a significant psychological support, this level is also the 200 day moving average, the intersection of two old rising trend lines, the May 2012 highs and the 50% fibo level of the 2012 high (1.3485) to 2012 low (1.2041). As such it is significant support, but still I do not expect it to hold for long and fully expect to see it retested again this week and probably break through to proceed downwards for a test of the next major support level at the rising channel support around the next psych level of 1.2700.
On the top side, heavy resistance come in around the 1.2940 area which is represented by the 61.8% fibo level of the same 2012 high to low range. Further resistance is offered by a much older rising trend line and also the highs of 28th September. Before we get there we also have some resistance at the falling channel upper trend line which held and rejected price yesterday at 1.2939 and today comes in around 1.2925.
In closing I must mention that the market seems to be looking for any little excuse to chase risk. Whilst many will most likely jump on that band wagon and further support such a move, I would be more inclined to fade it.
As always, be well and trade safe.
Pete Jackson's Order Board:
EUR/USD: Offers from 1.2930/50 possible buy stops through 1.2960 ahead of stronger offers 1.2980/00. Bids from 1.2880 down to 1.2850 with sell stops through 1.2840 ahead of tech supp 200 day MA at 1.2823. More bids 1.2800./10 and further sell stops below.
Today's Euro FX Option Expiries @ 14:00 GMT:
EUR/USD: 1.2770, 1.2875, 1.2900, 1.2935, 1.2950, 1.3000, 1.3050
E/U H1:
E/U Daily:
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
- #701,069
- Oct 2, 2012 1:55am Oct 2, 2012 1:55am
- Joined Mar 2010 | Status: Trader | 42,434 Posts
2013-07-31 Today's Phrase of the Day: Hold off from any recycle bin experts
- #701,071
- Oct 2, 2012 1:58am Oct 2, 2012 1:58am
- Joined Mar 2010 | Status: Trader | 42,434 Posts
2013-07-31 Today's Phrase of the Day: Hold off from any recycle bin experts
- #701,072
- Oct 2, 2012 2:00am Oct 2, 2012 2:00am
- Joined Aug 2008 | Status: Fear makes us see who we really are | 4,822 Posts
They think they are smarter than I am.
- #701,073
- Oct 2, 2012 2:08am Oct 2, 2012 2:08am
- Joined Aug 2009 | Status: Trader | 12,448 Posts
aussie is crunch time her under pressure by my bears 
If you are new to Forex? Say Goodbye to your account!!
- #701,077
- Oct 2, 2012 2:14am Oct 2, 2012 2:14am
- Joined Aug 2008 | Status: Persist Until Something Happens | 17,898 Posts
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
- #701,078
- Oct 2, 2012 2:14am Oct 2, 2012 2:14am
- Joined Aug 2009 | Status: Trader | 12,448 Posts
fuk just checked daily 1st fence already but it make new previous low, plus 1oth sept low, couple important trenline in reach and biggy 0290, below hthere be fresh air
If you are new to Forex? Say Goodbye to your account!!
- #701,080
- Oct 2, 2012 2:18am Oct 2, 2012 2:18am
- Joined Aug 2009 | Status: Trader | 12,448 Posts
If you are new to Forex? Say Goodbye to your account!!