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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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EurAnalysis

  • #56,981
  • Oct 1, 2012 11:15am Oct 1, 2012 11:15am
Quoting Vtmn
thank you, you're the man!
You are always welcome!
  • #56,982
  • Oct 1, 2012 11:18am Oct 1, 2012 11:18am
Quoting PipTrapper
I truly hesistate to predict timing on this. You may be absolutely right that the markets are being manipulated. At least we know that market sentiment is being manipulated through unconventional monetary policy. In the end there is one thing I do know, and that is that there is a limit to how much risk private capital will take. The end result is either a leveling off and some profit taking for a gradual return to fundamentally driven sentiment leading to a stronger USD and a weaker EUR based on pure macro economic fundamentals, or a huge bubble...

Thanks for your response, appreciate you taking the time.
  • #56,983
  • Oct 1, 2012 11:19am Oct 1, 2012 11:19am
Quoting PipTrapper
The Eurozone is not in an average economic condition. It is in a dire economic condition caused by massive divergences in fiscal needs by the 17 different nations. If all was fine, then I would agree with you. However, considering that the US will clearly lead the global economic recovery (as opposed to Europe), then the Euro's value belongs below the mean... Wait for it. It's coming soon to a theatre near you
Amen! Preach on!

Short of a fiscal union, there is no way with varying personality, political goals,national goals, cultural differences, and existing fiscal structures in place, as well as the mandate to control currency value under one governing body, the Euro either has to devalue in relation to reserve currencies, or cease to exist as present union.

My 2-1/2 cents
  • #56,984
  • Oct 1, 2012 11:20am Oct 1, 2012 11:20am
Quoting PipTrapper
The Eurozone is not in an average economic condition. It is in a dire economic condition caused by massive divergences in fiscal needs by the 17 different nations. If all was fine, then I would agree with you. However, considering that the US will clearly lead the global economic recovery (as opposed to Europe), then the Euro's value belongs below the mean... Wait for it. It's coming soon to a theatre near you

Yes very true BUT as you know the revised view of currency now is based on CB intervention and whatever fancy idea they can BS everyone to look at and doing whatever it wants to allegedly "fix" it. So though it maybe below US. How does the market look at all the BS.
  • #56,985
  • Oct 1, 2012 11:20am Oct 1, 2012 11:20am
Quoting PipTrapper
The Eurozone is not in an average economic condition. It is in a dire economic condition caused by massive divergences in fiscal needs by the 17 different nations. If all was fine, then I would agree with you. However, considering that the US will clearly lead the global economic recovery (as opposed to Europe), then the Euro's value belongs below the mean... Wait for it. It's coming soon to a theatre near you
If I take 1.60 is the high and 0.5 as Low, then the Mean is 1.05.
  • #56,986
  • Oct 1, 2012 11:22am Oct 1, 2012 11:22am
Quoting TRMZXT
Yes very true BUT as you know the revised view of currency now is based on CB intervention and whatever fancy idea they can BS everyone to look at and doing whatever it wants to allegedly "fix" it. So though it maybe below US. How does the market look at all the BS.
The market always will eventually have 20/20 vision!

BS will not hold forever
  • #56,987
  • Oct 1, 2012 11:22am Oct 1, 2012 11:22am
As my expectation is Bernanke will be risk positive and Euro has moved a lot today already, just took a short on Euro/Cad at 1.2682 for a return to 1.2630 or lower. This is a retrace test of the days high at 1.2690 area.
Also the Euro/Cad gets rejected fairly often at current level.
  • #56,988
  • Oct 1, 2012 11:23am Oct 1, 2012 11:23am
Quoting Gofer Pips
The market always will eventually have 20/20 vision!

BS will not hold forever

Yep but when you have two markets hell bent on out BSing the other with "unlimited money printing." It messes with my trading as I am very short term. You might not think it messes with it but it does. Makes what you expect reverse.
  • #56,989
  • Oct 1, 2012 11:26am Oct 1, 2012 11:26am
Quoting foto
As my expectation is Bernanke will be risk positive and Euro has moved a lot today already, just took a short on Euro/Cad at 1.2682 for a return to 1.2630 or lower. This is a retrace test of the days high at 1.2690 area.
Also the Euro/Cad gets rejected fairly often at current level.

I hope it drops through the floor. Market is nicely set for a short.
  • #56,990
  • Oct 1, 2012 11:27am Oct 1, 2012 11:27am
Quoting TRMZXT
Yep but when you have two markets hell bent on out BSing the other with "unlimited money printing." It messes with my trading as I am very short term.
What 2 markets?

With all respect,if you are very short term- like scalping, then fundies are important for trend and sentiment in big picture, but I would think more reliance would be on technicals. Enlighten me.
  • #56,991
  • Oct 1, 2012 11:29am Oct 1, 2012 11:29am
Quoting Gofer Pips
What 2 markets?

With all respect,if you are very short term- like scalping, then fundies are important for trend and sentiment in big picture, but I would think more reliance would be on technicals. Enlighten me.
when I said markets I meant currency. It is on technicals but it still tends to make the market say screw the techs more than normal when bias is out of control. Been good the last few weeks but sometimes it makes the market have a mind of it's own.
  • #56,992
  • Oct 1, 2012 11:32am Oct 1, 2012 11:32am
Quoting Vtmn
thank you, you're the man!
live coverage...
http://www.bloomberg.com/live-stream/
  • #56,993
  • Oct 1, 2012 11:40am Oct 1, 2012 11:40am
Quoting Kiads
live coverage...
http://www.bloomberg.com/live-stream/

makes me hungry, where is my pie!
How to Win at Sports Betting: DON'T DO IT!
  • #56,994
  • Oct 1, 2012 11:47am Oct 1, 2012 11:47am
Quoting TRMZXT
Yes very true BUT as you know the revised view of currency now is based on CB intervention and whatever fancy idea they can BS everyone to look at and doing whatever it wants to allegedly "fix" it. So though it maybe below US. How does the market look at all the BS.
If the CBs keep on easing, then it becomes even more concrete that the economy will never recover.

Once the US economy starts to show some glimpse of hope of recovery (and it will... probably sooner than we think), the Fed will have no choice but to start tightening. If it doesn't do that, then you end up with runaway inflation and interest rates will go through the roof.

So, I'm sorry to say that the CB perpetual intervention argument does not hold water with me.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #56,995
  • Oct 1, 2012 11:48am Oct 1, 2012 11:48am
any thoughts on Mr. BS? Triangle long support of 75 and trendline in view and US OPEN.
  • #56,996
  • Oct 1, 2012 11:51am Oct 1, 2012 11:51am
Quoting TRMZXT
any thoughts on Mr. BS? Triangle long support of 75 and trendline in view and US OPEN.
The market has always had to deal with Mr. BS. It just so happens that he is more lively lately. However, as Gofer already mentioned, Mr. Market has 20/20 vision and the fundies will always trump the talking heads.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #56,997
  • Oct 1, 2012 11:53am Oct 1, 2012 11:53am
Quoting PipTrapper
If the CBs keep on easing, then it becomes even more concrete that the economy will never recover.

Once the US economy starts to show some glimpse of hope of recovery (and it will... probably sooner than we think), the Fed will have no choice but to start tightening. If it doesn't do that, then you end up with runaway inflation and interest rates will go through the roof.

So, I'm sorry to say that the CB perpetual intervention argument does not hold water with me.

I agree BUT I don't see their goal as what is good for the US but for the NWO and bring even MORE of a one currency situation. They create the crisis. Point fingers and then go uhhhh well these other situations caused this instead of them. The FED is nothing about the US unless it is good for the World banks and their agenda. So I have a underlying reason why I think they will keep printing overall.
  • #56,998
  • Oct 1, 2012 11:58am Oct 1, 2012 11:58am
Since QE3 price of oil decreased by +/- 8%.
Inflation in things we need, Deflation in things we want.
  • #56,999
  • Oct 1, 2012 11:59am Oct 1, 2012 11:59am
Quoting TRMZXT
I agree BUT I don't see their goal as what is good for the US but for the NWO and bring even MORE of a one currency situation. They create the crisis. Point fingers and then go uhhhh well these other situations caused this instead of them. The FED is nothing about the US unless it is good for the World banks and their agenda. So I have a underlying reason why I think they will keep printing overall.
Well, if you're right then we're heading into a period of massive hyperinflation. Better buy physical gold, chickens, goats and a nice plot of arable land where you can plant vegetables.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #57,000
  • Oct 1, 2012 12:04pm Oct 1, 2012 12:04pm
think DXY will go back to the 80.XX?
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