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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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  • #56,961
  • Edited 10:12am Oct 1, 2012 9:56am | Edited 10:12am
Quoting PipTrapper
We could both be wrong. There is still a lot of support between here and a re-test of 1.2800 and we could end up stuck in consolidation until tomorrow's news (RBA Statement & Spanish unemployment)

yep... quite a bit BUT the more a price gets run over like 90 the less resistance or support it becomes. The 1 has to come up a bit and fail to create proper wave action to break long support.

3M is diverg. So the 1M has to come up a little.
  • #56,962
  • Oct 1, 2012 10:07am Oct 1, 2012 10:07am
for what its worth i expect to see the markets/fed talking heads giving the president a little boost for the upcoming debates. american media loves to see the market up and will make sure everyone knows the markets had a good one today....just in time for wednesday.
  • #56,963
  • Oct 1, 2012 10:15am Oct 1, 2012 10:15am
Quoting Ken A
No. It wasn't about the language. It's the name, I can't pronounce it and mostly they are girls. Too bad you are not a girl.
It's a nickname that I use since i was child ahahah
  • #56,964
  • Oct 1, 2012 10:17am Oct 1, 2012 10:17am
is there a speech today?
How to Win at Sports Betting: DON'T DO IT!
  • #56,965
  • Oct 1, 2012 10:18am Oct 1, 2012 10:18am
piptrapper....

have a question for you.

i know your are bearish on the euro.

do you expect to see a strong decline by months end or later ?

as you may have guessed i believe that the upcoming elections are having a extremely significant effect on the markets (manipulation) but that is just my opinion. that being said i dont know if i see a strong drop before november.....
  • #56,966
  • Oct 1, 2012 10:19am Oct 1, 2012 10:19am
Quoting Vtmn
is there a speech today?
(my times are PST)
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  • #56,967
  • Oct 1, 2012 10:21am Oct 1, 2012 10:21am
Quoting neuron
(my times are PST)
i've seen that, but is it actually watchable?
How to Win at Sports Betting: DON'T DO IT!
  • #56,968
  • Oct 1, 2012 10:24am Oct 1, 2012 10:24am
Quoting Vtmn
i've seen that, but is it actually watchable?
It's not porn for sure.
  • #56,969
  • Oct 1, 2012 10:28am Oct 1, 2012 10:28am
possible head and shoulders pattern. 900 and 75 break for a quick drop are key if it setups for a retest.
  • #56,970
  • Edited 10:56am Oct 1, 2012 10:38am | Edited 10:56am
The market has clearly IMO created a LH. Longs better watch out. It may go back up but a Head shoulders are very possible for a reverse. 3 in a short wave pattern, 9M with crossover diverg and 27M are high and clearly diverg. You can use 10M and 30 if you like.
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  • #56,971
  • Oct 1, 2012 11:00am Oct 1, 2012 11:00am
Quoting Ken A
It's not porn for sure.
Bernanke > porn isnt entertaining anymore
How to Win at Sports Betting: DON'T DO IT!
  • #56,972
  • Oct 1, 2012 11:00am Oct 1, 2012 11:00am
previous 900 combination resistance and trendline broke for shorting. Now for 900 resistance. Total up trendline at 1.2882 currently.
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  • #56,973
  • Oct 1, 2012 11:01am Oct 1, 2012 11:01am
M15 H&S completed? 1.2875 is next closest support, ultimately 1.2813 again
  • #56,974
  • Oct 1, 2012 11:02am Oct 1, 2012 11:02am
Quoting godrich
piptrapper....

have a question for you.

i know your are bearish on the euro.

do you expect to see a strong decline by months end or later ?

as you may have guessed i believe that the upcoming elections are having a extremely significant effect on the markets (manipulation) but that is just my opinion. that being said i dont know if i see a strong drop before november.....
I truly hesistate to predict timing on this. You may be absolutely right that the markets are being manipulated. At least we know that market sentiment is being manipulated through unconventional monetary policy. In the end there is one thing I do know, and that is that there is a limit to how much risk private capital will take. The end result is either a leveling off and some profit taking for a gradual return to fundamentally driven sentiment leading to a stronger USD and a weaker EUR based on pure macro economic fundamentals, or a huge bubble burst with a very rapid panic sell-off. In a way I hope it is the former (For the global economy's sake) but you won't hear me complaining should the latter occur

Now as for timing, as much as I hate to predict, the descent has already started in this pair and I expect it to continue slowly (unless we get the panic sell-off in the equities market). Anyway, I cautiously project that by the end of October, this pair will have already tested and possibly broken the 1.2500 level. On the flip side, if there is further monetary easing (or massive speculation of) by the Fed in the form of treasury pruchases added on to the existing MBS purchases, then we get to retest 3170 and maybe even overshoot to 3250-3300. However, if that were to happen, then the correction to fundamental reality will be a lot more violent... just like it was in 2008
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #56,975
  • Oct 1, 2012 11:06am Oct 1, 2012 11:06am
Quoting PipTrapper
I truly hesistate to predict timing on this. You may be absolutely right that the markets are being manipulated. At least we know that market sentiment is being manipulated through unconventional monetary policy. In the end there is one thing I do know, and that is that there is a limit to how much risk private capital will take. The end result is either a leveling off and some profit taking for a gradual return to fundamentally driven sentiment leading to a stronger USD and a weaker EUR based on pure macro economic fundamentals, or a huge bubble...

Totally agree. I jsut want a drop to 2.8 or more for now....
  • #56,976
  • Oct 1, 2012 11:08am Oct 1, 2012 11:08am
Quoting neuron
M15 H&S completed? 1.2875 is next closest support, ultimately 1.2813 again
I see it as a much larger HS. the other shoulder "might" be a little broken. HAHA head and dislocated shoulder pattern. LOL The US market PA is the head. The retrace from london high would be the shoulder. Might call it the Batman head and shoulders.
  • #56,977
  • Oct 1, 2012 11:08am Oct 1, 2012 11:08am
Quoting PipTrapper
...then we get to retest 3170 and maybe even overshoot to 3250-3300. However, if that were to happen, then the correction to fundamental reality will be a lot more violent... just like it was in 2008
On an avg. we can see E/U is mostly traded around 1.3x level in last 5 yrs. so why does it matter anyway if it traded slightly above 1.3x. However, I do believe if it traded above 1.4 (which is odd for Data Analysis reason) situation could be violent.
  • #56,978
  • Oct 1, 2012 11:11am Oct 1, 2012 11:11am
Quoting Vtmn
i've seen that, but is it actually watchable?
The Q & A will be carried live on CNBC or so they say.
  • #56,979
  • Oct 1, 2012 11:12am Oct 1, 2012 11:12am
Quoting Gofer Pips
The Q & A will be carried live on CNBC or so they say.

thank you, you're the man!
How to Win at Sports Betting: DON'T DO IT!
  • #56,980
  • Oct 1, 2012 11:12am Oct 1, 2012 11:12am
Quoting rekon67
On an avg. we can see E/U is mostly traded around 1.3x level in last 5 yrs. so why does it matter anyway if it traded slightly above 1.3x. However, I do believe if it traded above 1.4 (which is odd for Data Analysis reason) situation could be violent.
The Eurozone is not in an average economic condition. It is in a dire economic condition caused by massive divergences in fiscal needs by the 17 different nations. If all was fine, then I would agree with you. However, considering that the US will clearly lead the global economic recovery (as opposed to Europe), then the Euro's value belongs below the mean... Wait for it. It's coming soon to a theatre near you
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
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