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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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  • #56,901
  • Oct 1, 2012 7:41am Oct 1, 2012 7:41am
Quoting TRMZXT
I see it possibly as well bullish but do you think they will retest the bottom?
I see Futures Up so less likely it is going to test the bottom today. However you need to keep an eye on that, we have seen so many "U" patterns for the pair in Intraday.
  • #56,902
  • Oct 1, 2012 7:46am Oct 1, 2012 7:46am
Quoting TRMZXT
I see it possibly as well bullish but do you think they will retest the bottom before trending up?

I see a alot of times on small charts and it is the same on big that the trendline is usually broken then it goes for a high and then fades back a little and fails a high to start a new trend. It broke the trend Thursday and set a new high run friday to sunday and now is going back strogly the other way.
It did not invalidated the bullish pattern, although it created an inverse "U" on lower time frame. Price only followed major Supply and Demand.
  • #56,903
  • Oct 1, 2012 7:55am Oct 1, 2012 7:55am
Quoting rekon67
I guess it is available couple of posts / pages back. Posted on last Saturday I believe.

Edit & Add : http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...7077&page=3790
FANTASTIC TA
AFOS
If ask a silly question.. forgive me!i'm just confused again!
  • #56,904
  • Oct 1, 2012 7:57am Oct 1, 2012 7:57am
Quoting afos
FANTASTIC TA
AFOS
Thanks
  • #56,905
  • Oct 1, 2012 7:59am Oct 1, 2012 7:59am
Quoting rekon67
here is my prediction about coming october month. I hope this will follow the tradition of closing positive. Only 2008 year i found bad i think because of recession at that time.

2012 oct values are only average and hope we will get values closer the figures.

Attachment
renko maybe the election year outcome should be weighted x 2.5?
If ask a silly question.. forgive me!i'm just confused again!
  • #56,906
  • Oct 1, 2012 8:00am Oct 1, 2012 8:00am
Quoting foto
TRMZXT, all i am seeing on EURO/USD is congestion with a slight bias up.


On the dailies we have for all goods and purposes 4 successive tests of the 200 sma zone that have held. The strongly rising 20 sma is currently acting as some resistance.

I think price at the 38.2% retrace of daily, is worth watching on the 15 minute chart to go short if it holds, for a retest of the 200 sma level once again.
So for a test scalp of the Bear scenario 1.2941 zone is worth a short term trade.

We also have a descending 200 sma on the hourly which on Friday...
Thanks!
  • #56,907
  • Oct 1, 2012 8:03am Oct 1, 2012 8:03am
would add one more thought, the market is preprogramed to sell the USD when Bernanke speaks. But i think we are moving towards the day when risk on does not automaticaly imply dump the dollar day. So it is possible we are going to get an over reaction initialy to Bernanke which would be a price distortion and worth taking, fading the news.

TRMZXT you are welcome, but you are the scalper so i listen to you.
  • #56,908
  • Oct 1, 2012 8:03am Oct 1, 2012 8:03am
Quoting afos
renko maybe the election year outcome should be weighted x 2.5?
Actually that data analysis has a major influence of the year 2008, so I am expecting more higher value for E/U and I am not sure about including political events on technical, do we have political months data? I am not sure about it.
  • #56,909
  • Oct 1, 2012 8:17am Oct 1, 2012 8:17am
Looks like 1.2926 is where we stop for now and waiting for data/news to move either direction.
  • #56,910
  • Oct 1, 2012 8:20am Oct 1, 2012 8:20am
Quoting Ken A
Looks like 1.2926 is where we stop for now and waiting for data/news to move either direction.
Yep it is a light resistance, but if Sellers want to take a position they will choose 1.2940-60 area, but very less likely.
  • #56,911
  • Oct 1, 2012 8:24am Oct 1, 2012 8:24am
Gold suddenly pop and seems like someone is anticipating a drop.
  • #56,912
  • Oct 1, 2012 8:29am Oct 1, 2012 8:29am
Yep! It is PT! E/U is taking its actual direction now
  • #56,913
  • Oct 1, 2012 8:31am Oct 1, 2012 8:31am
Quoting Ken A
God suddenly pop and seems like someone is anticipating a drop.
1.2925 is the 78.6% fibo of the move down from Friday High.
It is also the 200 hour sma
and it is where price intersects with the down trend.
and we have bearish divergence on M5 and bearish hidden divergence on H1
Add to that the fact that we have reached our daily range for today

So, a short at 1.2925 offers excellent RR IMO

We just need top get below 1.2910
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #56,914
  • Oct 1, 2012 8:32am Oct 1, 2012 8:32am
Maybe anticipating Bernanke is going to say something like QE3 is ineffective?
  • #56,915
  • Oct 1, 2012 8:33am Oct 1, 2012 8:33am
Quoting Ken A
Maybe anticipating Bernanke is going to say something like QE3 is ineffective?
LOL He would never say that unless he was announcing QE4
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #56,916
  • Oct 1, 2012 8:36am Oct 1, 2012 8:36am
New month + London Bulls + Crosses Bulls = Trend Continuation
Side to up bias 1.2850~1.3150.. 1.33~1.34..
Sub 1.28 will have to wait a bit longer..

Euro W1
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Euro capture-20121001-132544 W1.png Size: 88 KB
  • #56,917
  • Oct 1, 2012 8:37am Oct 1, 2012 8:37am
Quoting foto
would add one more thought, the market is preprogramed to sell the USD when Bernanke speaks. But i think we are moving towards the day when risk on does not automaticaly imply dump the dollar day. So it is possible we are going to get an over reaction initialy to Bernanke which would be a price distortion and worth taking, fading the news.

TRMZXT you are welcome, but you are the scalper so i listen to you.

I am in the middle. I can def see a retest of 1.2850 or slightly lower. I hope it goes to retest 12800 again. New month and weekso that tends to make me very reluctant to go short. A move down to that area could create a HL and almost the start of a head and shoulders to go up. Markets are testers and as a scalper you realize that and trade it more than most. It feels like a lot of groups are buying today in anticipation that of a move back up. It may go sideways ranging a few days.
  • #56,918
  • Oct 1, 2012 8:39am Oct 1, 2012 8:39am
Quoting PipTrapper
1.2925 is the 78.6% fibo of the move down from Friday High.
It is also the 200 hour sma
and it is where price intersects with the down trend.
and we have bearish divergence on M5 and bearish hidden divergence on H1
Add to that the fact that we have reached our daily range for today

So, a short at 1.2925 offers excellent RR IMO

We just need top get below 1.2910
Not sure about this.

This could move the market in 20 mins- USD ISM Manufacturing PMI.
  • #56,919
  • Oct 1, 2012 8:43am Oct 1, 2012 8:43am
Quoting Ken A
Not sure about this.

This could move the market in 20 mins- USD ISM Manufacturing PMI.
Yep anything is possible, but if one is looking for a top, you can't find a better probability with excellent RR than 78.6
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #56,920
  • Oct 1, 2012 8:46am Oct 1, 2012 8:46am
Quoting PipTrapper
1.2925 is the 78.6% fibo of the move down from Friday High.
It is also the 200 hour sma
and it is where price intersects with the down trend.
and we have bearish divergence on M5 and bearish hidden divergence on H1
Add to that the fact that we have reached our daily range for today

So, a short at 1.2925 offers excellent RR IMO

We just need top get below 1.2910
Yep. 910 is key. A LH would def push a restest. The thing is unless major news comes about most of the time when the US NY session creates a strong High or low on the London it rarely returns to beyond the it's open. I believe it is like 70% of the time. I hope it runs down to retest on Bernanke but if it does NOT break a new low by London the first few hours it is CLEARLY going to retest the top of 1.3170 or give a good try doing it. Basically the market just wanted to push it down again to confirm and make money going back the otehr way. It would clearly create at least ranging for a while IMO.
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