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  • #3,601
  • Sep 30, 2012 8:09am Sep 30, 2012 8:09am
A remarkable thread I must say. Wanted to share a current EURUSD setup and ask your opinion, guys.


Looking to get long around 1.2800 and 1.2775. Market has been trending down and consuming supply. Now we will face the first serious demand area. Also I believe there are a bunch of stops below recent swing low and looks like a trap for me. In the bigger picture I believe we could gun for 1.3300 supply area and recent down move looks like a correction. So I think that potential max reward might be very big, if we make a run up from here. Thoughts?

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd analysis.gif Size: 18 KB
  • #3,602
  • Sep 30, 2012 8:25am Sep 30, 2012 8:25am
Quoting extremerrage
balhana what is a QM if u dont mind ?
Hey extreme, check this out.
  • #3,603
  • Sep 30, 2012 8:32am Sep 30, 2012 8:32am
Quoting Balhana
Hey extreme, check this out.
thx mate ...well done ,nice charts
  • #3,604
  • Edited Oct 1, 2012 1:25am Sep 30, 2012 3:55pm | Edited Oct 1, 2012 1:25am
Hey guys,

I've been reading some of the posts in this thread over the weekend + some of LJ blog articles. Very nice stuff. I'm also familiar with the basic teachings of Sam Seiden and basic understanding of S/D before reaching this thread. I have two questions:

1. I have never heard a logical explanation of WHY S/D really works. Most of the explanations revolve around "institutional buying & selling" leaving its traces in the market. While this, I think, is fair enough, why would a return of price to that level is considered a high probability bounce? What is the connection betwen institutional buying/selling AND the return of the price back to that level? That instution may already have booked the profits so what's the connection?

2. And the second one, straightforward. Do any of you guys make a living trading like this? Or at least extract consistent profits out of the market? If you feel is too direct then simply ignore it.

Best,
-soso
Trading = a mirror to your human flaws. Fix them or be fixed.
  • #3,605
  • Oct 1, 2012 4:05am Oct 1, 2012 4:05am
Quoting soso
Hey guys,

I've been reading some of the posts in this thread over the weekend + some of LJ blog articles. Very nice stuff. I'm also familiar with the basic teachings of Sam Seiden and basic understanding of S/D before reaching this thread. I have two questions:

1. I have never heard a logical explanation of WHY S/D really works. Most of the explanations revolve around "institutional buying & selling" leaving its traces in the market. While this, I think, is fair enough, why would a return of price to that level is considered a high probability...
1. One of the main reason is down to order-flow dynamics and types of market participants on the FTB. I've covered this in my 2nd FTB video (to be uploaded tonight or tomorrow).

2. I'm a full time trader, so yes I use the FTB strategy (amongst others) to make consistent monthly income.

IMO a good PA trader should be making 10-15R+ per month.
  • #3,606
  • Oct 1, 2012 4:07am Oct 1, 2012 4:07am
Quoting Supernaut
A remarkable thread I must say. Wanted to share a current EURUSD setup and ask your opinion, guys.


Looking to get long around 1.2800 and 1.2775. Market has been trending down and consuming supply. Now we will face the first serious demand area. Also I believe there are a bunch of stops below recent swing low and looks like a trap for me. In the bigger picture I believe we could gun for 1.3300 supply area and recent down move looks like a correction. So I think that potential max reward might be very big, if we make a run up from here. Thoughts?

Attachment ...
The rationale behind the potential trade is good IMO.
  • #3,607
  • Oct 1, 2012 4:08am Oct 1, 2012 4:08am
Quoting Supernaut
A remarkable thread I must say. Wanted to share a current EURUSD setup and ask your opinion, guys.


Looking to get long around 1.2800 and 1.2775. Market has been trending down and consuming supply. Now we will face the first serious demand area. Also I believe there are a bunch of stops below recent swing low and looks like a trap for me. In the bigger picture I believe we could gun for 1.3300 supply area and recent down move looks like a correction. So I think that potential max reward might be very big, if we make a run up from here. Thoughts?

Attachment ...
... it reached your 1.2803 demand line to the pip and then reverse. Good call!
WARNING: Don't follow me as I'm just learning
  • #3,608
  • Oct 1, 2012 4:12am Oct 1, 2012 4:12am
Quoting adam777
... it reached your 1.2803 demand line to the pip and then reverse. Good call!
Can you tell why price reversed at that level - i.e. can you find the previous decision level within the H4 Demand zone that tells us this level is one where price might turn from...
  • #3,609
  • Oct 1, 2012 4:19am Oct 1, 2012 4:19am
Quoting lovejoy80
1. One of the main reason is down to order-flow dynamics and types of market participants on the FTB. I've covered this in my 2nd FTB video (to be uploaded tonight or tomorrow).

2. I'm a full time trader, so yes I use the FTB strategy (amongst others) to make consistent monthly income.

IMO a good PA trader should be making 10-15R+ per month.
Thank you for your answer LJ!

Looking forward to your second video then. Will it be public?
Trading = a mirror to your human flaws. Fix them or be fixed.
  • #3,610
  • Oct 1, 2012 4:20am Oct 1, 2012 4:20am
Quoting lovejoy80
The rationale behind the potential trade is good IMO.
Only a moral win for me, I'm a afraid. Missed the entry by the fraction of a pip. But these things happen.
  • #3,611
  • Oct 1, 2012 4:49am Oct 1, 2012 4:49am
Quoting lovejoy80
Can you tell why price reversed at that level - i.e. can you find the previous decision level within the H4 Demand zone that tells us this level is one where price might turn from...
To find the "demand range", should we look at Daily, then 4hr, then 1hour to zoom in for confirmation of where "demand" is?

(I was looking for the base point of the extension on the Daily, then looking for the cluster of price on both the 4hr and hourly charts.)
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu.jpg Size: 105 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: eu-4h.jpg Size: 272 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: eu-1hr.jpg Size: 271 KB
WARNING: Don't follow me as I'm just learning
  • #3,612
  • Oct 1, 2012 5:06am Oct 1, 2012 5:06am
Quoting soso
Thank you for your answer LJ!

Looking forward to your second video then. Will it be public?
Yes it will be uploaded to my website - the link will appear on page 1 of the thread.
  • #3,613
  • Oct 1, 2012 5:14am Oct 1, 2012 5:14am
Looking forward to FTB videos Parts 2 & 3! Thanks
WARNING: Don't follow me as I'm just learning
  • #3,614
  • Oct 1, 2012 6:01am Oct 1, 2012 6:01am
Quoting adam777
To find the "demand range", should we look at Daily, then 4hr, then 1hour to zoom in for confirmation of where "demand" is?

(I was looking for the base point of the extension on the Daily, then looking for the cluster of price on both the 4hr and hourly charts.)
I always zoom in much further...every TF has the ability to reveal information not present on a different TF.

M1 view showing the decision point within the H4 Demand zone - and today's reaction shown in top left.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu1min.jpg Size: 115 KB
  • #3,615
  • Oct 1, 2012 6:10am Oct 1, 2012 6:10am
Quoting lovejoy80
I always zoom in much further...every TF has the ability to reveal information not present on a different TF.

M1 view showing the decision point within the H4 Demand zone - and today's reaction shown in top left.
Thank you.
WARNING: Don't follow me as I'm just learning
  • #3,616
  • Oct 1, 2012 6:21am Oct 1, 2012 6:21am
Order flow
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: ideal.png Size: 87 KB
  • #3,617
  • Oct 1, 2012 6:49am Oct 1, 2012 6:49am
Quoting lovejoy80
I always zoom in much further...every TF has the ability to reveal information not present on a different TF.

M1 view showing the decision point within the H4 Demand zone - and today's reaction shown in top left.
After reviewing heaps of charts in the thread and zooming in on your 1min charts, is the purple highlighted part of your charts identified through a 4hr chart as per the following notes on this chart?

(looking for a minor high and low within the 4hr price move, before the major price extension?)
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu-4h2.jpg Size: 107 KB
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  • #3,618
  • Oct 1, 2012 6:56am Oct 1, 2012 6:56am
Quoting adam777
After reviewing heaps of charts in the thread and zooming in on your 1min charts, is the purple highlighted part of your charts identified through a 4hr chart as per the following notes on this chart?

(looking for a minor high and low within the 4hr price move, before the major price extension?)
Yes, this is how I have drawn my demand zone based on H4 - lower edge is easy, upper edge due to the previous resistance and then retest that occurred on 12/9 - then I would find the decision points/levels/areas by zooming in and thus refining where I expect price to find demand.
  • #3,619
  • Edited 8:32am Oct 1, 2012 8:19am | Edited 8:32am
... interesting minor supply areas and retracements at dots on 4hr chart bellow (before looking at 1minute chart), as price heads down to the major demand level ...

... just thinking out loud ...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: dot.jpg Size: 233 KB
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  • #3,620
  • Oct 1, 2012 8:24am Oct 1, 2012 8:24am
Quoting bosc
Order flow
I don't consider the old chart valid anymore, fib pattern into play.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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