EurAnalysis

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I don't normally pay attention to crosses unless I am in the positions such as EUR/AUD, GBP/AUD, EUR/CAD. Too much visual information is getting me nowhere to see the correlation as it might move to fill sell/buy orders or just stop for accumulation or due to USD strength/weakness.

So far major pairs are playing out fine from sentiment positive and negative environment. All pairs are in the middle of nowhere to place a long term position. I don't expect a mojor trend break out. No more CB event that will shock the market and for EUR there's nothing new but need to watch global equities. The only major breakout is when the global equity market crash. I don't see it coming soon but after election. I could be dead wrong though.

In addition to above I listen to Bloomberg, not their opinions but just facts about Equities gain or losing and all of that is enough to have a conviction and bias either to stay in, out or sideline. Also, I don't read junk prediction emails.

foto had a few recent posts re Cad correlations which I found quite interesting (not saying i understood it all! ), & being long usd/cad myself (from much higher up of course! Grrr!) it was painful to watch that pair reverse so regularly after pityfull gains when really it should have climbed higher. I know Cad has apparently metamorphosised into some form of dual safe haven currency recently in addition to it's being a traditional risk currency, and to a slightly lesser extent the Aud too, but these recent movements in Usd/Cad were to say the least quite annoying and "not quite cricket" (ie...intervention somewhere!).

Anyway, that's the game we play so we gotta accept those rules too of course and try get around them.

And yeah Ken, they'll be an equity crash all right, just when is the 100 trillion $ question ... it's all a matter of timing in this game. PT & most of us bears know the short to medium term fate of the euro...but knowing/guessing when that drop happens exactly is the trick!...but we all know that of course!

A similar situation to sp500 is shown by the Nzd/Usd chart..



If it were not yet time for the Euro-descent?

If we see at 26/5 low (weekly chart) we can see that it rebounded from 0,886 of the 19/11-25/02 swing high so it could be another one harmonic pattern with the end again around 0,8670..

But as the daily chart show before the rise we need some further drop to the demand zone..

As in the Nzd/Usd


Also in the Eur/Usd


But I don't think that Euro can have some further rise above the supply area indicated, about E/U I think we'll stay here in a consolidation phase as already happen after a big climb how I've shown few post ago..

just dumped 6 positions into this daily demand level at 1.2810 for a scaled in +805 pips....

still holding some shorts from above the 1.3000

Also looking to buy as long as we stay above the 1.2750...

expecting at least some sort of bounce from here

good R:R on Longs atm

Good call Wulf.
Keep this up and you be live in no time
I must say though... you're probably gonna get stopped out coz I don't expect 2800 support to hold.

well Im still flatish.... dont really see a reversal pattern setting up... just some crappy consolidation...

Need a little more to get me to scale in.... I got my zones all setup(mini-scale in areas) from 2750-2816... just gotta get some catalysts and market timing for a move... maybe london will show me something

Yep. London is going to be key. With China on holidays for Golden week, I'm not expecting much out of Asia till next week. This probably means less USD bashing.

so far it's retraced about 55% from the high at 1.3171, futures being negative, and Fridays negative day, I as long as equity markets and Futures continue in the Red (and probably will as China still shows cooling) I will be looking for short positions.

according to my calculations the probability of a bearish day is 56%, although long term the Fed's actions continue bullish for the Euro. The ECB's action, Bundesbank, and BOJ will probably drift the euro higher long term.

Just had the chinese data... ya I primarily trade Asia but with china on holiday Im not looking for a whole lot.. I make most of my Money on the asia close/ london open

just sitting here right now... aussie is sitting in demand but the Chinese data was soft as was the aussie data and its a well worn demand zone... higher probability of a break...

we will see

yep it sure did... added some shorts on the AUDJPY(80.76 and 80.69) and aud/usd(1.0353 and 1.0348) looking for the 1.0300

testing a major trend line, scalping some longs, overal sentiment is still bearish but dxy is meeting resistance and perhaps the spain data out tonight is already priced in to be shitty

Price 1.2806 as Neck Line / Critical Point.

Need BREAK in Price 1.2767 before UPWARD again...

So it must break 1.2767 before Upward again to where? 1.2806, 1.2807, 1.2808 or 1.3170? And why it must break 1.2767

Good Monday morning everybody.

It's the first day of a fresh month today and an interesting month we surely have ahead of us. I think this is going to be a "make or break" October for the Eurozone woes as we await many events. In the spotlight we have three major issues in Europe which include the Greek bailout program and budget negotiations with the Troika, plus the issue of Spain's reluctance to ask for aid from the ESM/OMT programs, and finally on Thursday we get an ECB rate statement / press conference. From the US we shall get the FOMC meeting minutes on Thursday and the "mother of all data" indicators on Friday, the NonFram Payroll report. Then starting from next Monday, the EuroGroup meetings start. In a nutshell, this week is where it starts to get real. Looking at today, we get PMI numbers from the Eurozone, UK and the US as well as the Eurozone unemployment numbers. So buckle up and eyes forward as this first week will most likely shape sentiment for the rest of the month... and it's not looking good so far.

From a technical perspective, Friday proved to be an utter failure for the bulls despite the anticipated USD selloff from month & quarter end flows. As such, 1.2950 resistance held extremely well, after which risk-off sentiment managed to break back into the falling channel coinciding with a break below the 1.2888 daily pivot. The end of the day closed off with consolidation after a test of strong 1.2825 support. Weak Chinese PMI data last night helped the pair re-test and break below 1.2825 but it wasn't enough to break and hold below the all important psychological 1.2800 level.

On the weekly chart , there is still some strong bearish hidden divergence capping any advance upwards. However, on the daily charts the pair is now running into some hidden bullish divergence, but it still has some room to run a bit longer before I would consider the pair to be in oversold territory. Remember that when it comes to divergences (or any other technical indications) the larger times frames usually trump the smaller ones. So with pretty much equal pressure from both the bulls and the bears, my technical outlook for today is neutral. As such, it's going to have to take some economic data or political news to push this pair one way or the other. In the meantime, I expect to see continued consolidation with the short term resistance coming in at Friday's low of 1.2840/50 area and support being the all important 1.2800 level.

Best of luck today and trade safe.

Pete Jackson's Order Board:

EUR/USD: Offers from 1.2850/60 possible buy stops through 1.2860 ahead of more offers 1.2890/00. Bids 1.2800/10 (1.2800 barrier)), sell stops below ahead of more bids 1.2785/95 and 1.2750/60, with more sell stops below.

Today's Euro FX Option Expiries:

EUR/USD: 1.2875, 1.2900, 1.3000

E/U H1:


E/U Daily:

Upward for awhile... He looking foundation to Down again.
Price 1.2767 as Demand area...

DAILY and WEEKLY... Bearish Trend !

stopped those out for small profit... flipped long AU at 1.0335 and AJ at 80.48... took the Eu long at 1.2917 and TP'd @ 1.2945

TP'd the AU at 1.0354 and the AJ at 80.60

just some countertrend 20 pippers in asia... but until this large demand zone is consumed the better R:R IMHO on risk currencies is long

that goes for the Eu as well...