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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #31,621
  • Sep 30, 2012 1:20pm Sep 30, 2012 1:20pm
Quoting brinks
Hi Holmes i'm so sure just yet

I think it needs to break the downtrend line from 80.62 around 79 before I get bullish.

Having said that i'am long from 77.50
good to see u here brinks, after all ups and downs, JPY is highly overvalued and it can't continue this way.
  • #31,622
  • Sep 30, 2012 1:27pm Sep 30, 2012 1:27pm
Quoting holmes
good to see u here brinks, after all ups and downs, JPY is highly overvalued and it can't continue this way.
I agree but we have been saying that all the way down and it keeps on falling
  • #31,623
  • Sep 30, 2012 1:40pm Sep 30, 2012 1:40pm
Quoting brinks
I agree but we have been saying that all the way down and it keeps on falling
Wait until an intervention occurs, you won't so sure of that short any,ore. This pair will skyrocket. As the previous comment said the yen cannot continue to be so overvalued. It's jus a matter of time before the Japanese intervene once again
  • #31,624
  • Sep 30, 2012 1:44pm Sep 30, 2012 1:44pm
Quoting 4rextrader
Wait until an intervention occurs, you won't so sure of that short any,ore. This pair will skyrocket. As the previous comment said the yen cannot continue to be so overvalued. It's jus a matter of time before the Japanese intervene once again
I'm long so hope they do intervene but the last 3 times they have done so have been sold off and end up at the lows within days.

If the BOJ want to weaken the yen they need to do something different,maybe this time with the G7 they will come up with a plan.but I doubt it as every other nation are trying there best to keep there currencies weak.
  • #31,625
  • Sep 30, 2012 3:35pm Sep 30, 2012 3:35pm
last years intervention occurred at levels around 75.5, if i am not mistaken and went to about 79.25. Why is there an "alarm" for japanese intervention if we are not even close to these levels. To what I understood from last years intervention, we wouldn't be in any danger of another intervention unless price of usd/jpy was once again around 75.5.
  • #31,626
  • Sep 30, 2012 5:31pm Sep 30, 2012 5:31pm
Quoting 4rextrader
last years intervention occurred at levels around 75.5, if i am not mistaken and went to about 79.25. Why is there an "alarm" for japanese intervention if we are not even close to these levels. To what I understood from last years intervention, we wouldn't be in any danger of another intervention unless price of usd/jpy was once again around 75.5.
it's not about the rate of usdjpy which makes an intervention necessary but the ability of economy to compete globally, we have global slow down in economy and meanwhile Japan and the US are doing somehow better than others and it makes USD and JPY as haven and that is why we see QE from the US and easing from Japan.
  • #31,627
  • Sep 30, 2012 7:12pm Sep 30, 2012 7:12pm
Quoting holmes
it's not about the rate of usdjpy which makes an intervention necessary but the ability of economy to compete globally, we have global slow down in economy and meanwhile Japan and the US are doing somehow better than others and it makes USD and JPY as haven and that is why we see QE from the US and easing from Japan.
China is Japans biggest trading partner but it doesn't count here because China does not have a free floating currency. The USA is the 2nd largest trading partner, so the rate of usd/jpy most certainly is of concern when considering intervention. However, each time Japan intervenes, they invoke the wrath of Uncle Sam....the same will happen again. Also, intervention does not work......they need to approach this in a different way.
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #31,628
  • Sep 30, 2012 9:17pm Sep 30, 2012 9:17pm
Quoting realjumper
China is Japans biggest trading partner but it doesn't count here because China does not have a free floating currency. The USA is the 2nd largest trading partner, so the rate of usd/jpy most certainly is of concern when considering intervention. However, each time Japan intervenes, they invoke the wrath of Uncle Sam....the same will happen again. Also, intervention does not work......they need to approach this in a different way.
In an ideal world, yes, they should approach this in a different way. But the reality is, there are politicians who wants to be elected again... so, they will push the BoJ to intervene.

I still hold the view that we will see this back down at 75.50-75.80 levels. But we will probably see an intervention at the low 76 levels first. The market will then want to make a final push. When that happens, that will be it for Yen. On the final intervention BoJ will want to make sure that it never comes down to that level again, for a long time.

I am currently short with Yen... hoping to ride the first intervention
  • #31,629
  • Sep 30, 2012 10:17pm Sep 30, 2012 10:17pm
Quoting Trader221
In an ideal world, yes, they should approach this in a different way. But the reality is, there are politicians who wants to be elected again... so, they will push the BoJ to intervene.

I still hold the view that we will see this back down at 75.50-75.80 levels. But we will probably see an intervention at the low 76 levels first. The market will then want to make a final push. When that happens, that will be it for Yen. On the final intervention BoJ will want to make sure that it never comes down to that level again, for a long time.

I am currently...
As I said, USA is Japans 2nd largest trading partner. Japan does not like incur the wrath of uncle sam when they intervene, and every intervention has failed. They need to approach this in a different way
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #31,630
  • Sep 30, 2012 10:26pm Sep 30, 2012 10:26pm
And we have a new Finance minister apointed- http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-1...n-cabinet.html

About the intervention, we will see, i wouldn't hope for it that much- it is true, that yen is extremly overvalueted, but it should be market job to correct it, and one day this "save heaven bubble" will explode. Just need to wait and see when, we have signs of revelsal near 77.50 area every time, seems a high buying preasure is there.

In favor of intervention speaks the end of quater, and Japanies election coming soon, when politicians will want to do something for exporters and gain some votes. Also the new MoF chief seems to be a bit green, both is terms of markets and minister job, and additionaly, he was a chief of workers union, so he mayby more willingfull to improve the condition of workers in Japan by intervention supporting the export.

We will see, i belive this month will be deciding if, or not, we will see an intervention!
  • #31,631
  • Edited Oct 1, 2012 6:36am Sep 30, 2012 11:37pm | Edited Oct 1, 2012 6:36am
I wonder when the new boy will start the talk

Yen moves speculative
watching the fx markets closely
will take bold action when appropriate

Open the floodgates, Japan talking about buying foreign bonds

Written by Adam Button
October 1, 2012 at 13:31 GMT

The Japanese economy minister Maehara says buying foreign bonds is effective easing policy. And that BOJ foreign bond buying is being considered.
Japan buys some foreign bonds in the current framework but largely through the MOF and government institutions. This is a new QE frontier.
Of course, the Fed wouldn’t mind, because it will help keep US rates low.
Congress, however, might think it’s currency devaluation.
USD/JPY not biting hard on this but if the BOJ buys US Treasuries in size, it would be a game changer.
  • #31,632
  • Oct 1, 2012 7:37am Oct 1, 2012 7:37am
If the ISM data out of america had of been bad or worse than expected the usd/jpy would of tanked.

So how come when it is better than expected does it only pop up 15-20 pips?
  • #31,633
  • Oct 1, 2012 8:43am Oct 1, 2012 8:43am
- Interesting view: http://www.forexlive.com/blog/2012/1...ptions-market/
  • #31,634
  • Oct 1, 2012 8:50am Oct 1, 2012 8:50am
Great links thanks, Ziko and brinks. Good thread.
Gone to a better place
  • #31,635
  • Oct 1, 2012 9:04am Oct 1, 2012 9:04am
Quoting Trader221
In an ideal world, yes, they should approach this in a different way. But the reality is, there are politicians who wants to be elected again... so, they will push the BoJ to intervene.

I still hold the view that we will see this back down at 75.50-75.80 levels. But we will probably see an intervention at the low 76 levels first. The market will then want to make a final push. When that happens, that will be it for Yen. On the final intervention BoJ will want to make sure that it never comes down to that level again, for a long time.

I am currently...
Japanese MOF added a 10trillion more to the asset purchase programme last week.... If they wanna go for intervention of 110trillion for eg. and they do it at 75.50 lvls they cud take the pair to 80 lvls but with the same amount of intervention at these levels they cud push it to 85lvls, killing all shorts and henceforth traders will also think twice on going short in the pair... So if they are to intervene they shud act now....
Also the MOF planning intervention at 75.50 lvls wud repeat the last time movement...a big up and then bck down...
  • #31,636
  • Oct 1, 2012 9:19am Oct 1, 2012 9:19am
Quoting smikester
Great links thanks, Ziko and brinks. Good thread.
- You are welcome any time Smikester and I welcome all new members who come here everyday to exchange thoughts and ideas.

- This thread is adding values everyday to U/J traders. (Quote from a 10v. useless member)
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  • #31,637
  • Oct 1, 2012 9:10pm Oct 1, 2012 9:10pm
Being Humble is more difficult than having a one shot success

Karma for all !
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Don't be smart. Be rich.
  • #31,638
  • Oct 2, 2012 2:20am Oct 2, 2012 2:20am
Dens and adresses of some good inns for our long journey...
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Don't be smart. Be rich.
  • #31,639
  • Oct 2, 2012 4:39pm Oct 2, 2012 4:39pm
Next stop 79.20!!!
  • #31,640
  • Oct 2, 2012 9:16pm Oct 2, 2012 9:16pm
Quoting falcon232
Next stop 79.20!!!
Or 76.60
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