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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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EurAnalysis

  • #56,821
  • Sep 28, 2012 1:32pm Sep 28, 2012 1:32pm
The Yen has defied all reason for its strength. With most of trading controled by computer models, if so many programs key in on the same market elements then currency price distortions occur.

In the real world of business Japan is struggling for 2 decades with deflation. That situation gets reinforced by trading algorithms. So the BOJ may be behind todays move by pushing back against the auto pilot algos.
There was a time a rising USDX meant risk on, hard to believe but true.
The US economicaly is in better shape then Europe, the USDX should reflect that.

This move in the USD/JPY is strong today and the price action appears similar to lifting interventions in the past. I extended that thought into this possible scenario. The markets have been shifting around something this past two weeks. I may be out in left field on this but better to see the train coming then get hit by it.

It has also been rumored that 77.00 level was where the BOJ would come in. Fairly close to that today's low 77.429
  • #56,822
  • Sep 28, 2012 2:00pm Sep 28, 2012 2:00pm
USDX rising during sentiment positive should be assets priced in US$ being purchased by shorting other currency and long USD.

I think Yen is behaving normal as safe haven now.
  • #56,823
  • Sep 28, 2012 2:39pm Sep 28, 2012 2:39pm
Almost there


Attached Image

  • #56,824
  • Sep 28, 2012 3:17pm Sep 28, 2012 3:17pm
Quoting Ken A
Almost there


Attachment

Lookie

Attached Image
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #56,825
  • Sep 28, 2012 3:17pm Sep 28, 2012 3:17pm
Quoting Ken A
Almost there


Attachment

Which broker is this from?
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #56,826
  • Sep 28, 2012 3:24pm Sep 28, 2012 3:24pm
Quoting PipTrapper
Lookie

Attachment
InstaForex
  • #56,827
  • Sep 28, 2012 3:35pm Sep 28, 2012 3:35pm
Quoting Ken A
InstaForex
Instafacked!
  • #56,828
  • Sep 28, 2012 3:36pm Sep 28, 2012 3:36pm
Damn those bucket shops
  • #56,829
  • Sep 28, 2012 4:00pm Sep 28, 2012 4:00pm
how does the BOJ decision making move the EURUSD directly?
  • #56,830
  • Sep 28, 2012 4:06pm Sep 28, 2012 4:06pm
Quoting TRMZXT
how does the BOJ decision making move the EURUSD directly?
It's all related to risk sentiment.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #56,831
  • Sep 28, 2012 4:06pm Sep 28, 2012 4:06pm
Good night and happy weekend to all.

I'm history.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #56,832
  • Sep 28, 2012 4:17pm Sep 28, 2012 4:17pm
Could be a possibility? If history repeats itself....

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EurUsdlongterm.png Size: 56 KB


What do you think?
  • #56,833
  • Sep 28, 2012 4:19pm Sep 28, 2012 4:19pm
Quoting mikijk3
Could be a possibility? If history repeats itself....

Attachment

What do you think?
Looks great... but i dunno... Im hesitantly trading EU... I hate all the CB intervention in the markets

Ive been more heavily into the aussie and kiwi sessions lately.

lthough i couldnt resist the last few EU short setups
  • #56,834
  • Sep 28, 2012 4:34pm Sep 28, 2012 4:34pm
Quoting Wulfgar
Looks great... but i dunno... Im hesitantly trading EU... I hate all the CB intervention in the markets

Ive been more heavily into the aussie and kiwi sessions lately.
Yes, you're right and in addition to CB intervention this pair is influenced by every news, that can be true but, most of the times, it's only a rumor..Especially in this situation of political and economic uncertainty every news could be a big market mover..

As Henry Ford said:
"Ducks lay eggs discreetly, on the other hand a chicken makes noise so the whole estate can hear. What is the result? The whole world eats chicken eggs"
  • #56,835
  • Sep 28, 2012 4:49pm Sep 28, 2012 4:49pm
Quoting mikijk3
Yes, you're right and in addition to CB intervention this pair is influenced by every news, that can be true but, most of the times, it's only a rumor..Especially in this situation of political and economic uncertainty every news could be a big market mover..

As Henry Ford said:
"Ducks lay eggs discreetly, on the other hand a chicken makes noise so the whole estate can hear. What is the result? The whole world eats chicken eggs"
Henry smart man. Didn't know ducks lay eggs.
  • #56,836
  • Sep 28, 2012 5:14pm Sep 28, 2012 5:14pm
Quoting mikijk3
Yes, you're right and in addition to CB intervention this pair is influenced by every news, that can be true but, most of the times, it's only a rumor..Especially in this situation of political and economic uncertainty every news could be a big market mover..

As Henry Ford said:
"Ducks lay eggs discreetly, on the other hand a chicken makes noise so the whole estate can hear. What is the result? The whole world eats chicken eggs"
Exactly

There was some beautiful setups that happened on the Kiwi and aussie pairs while everyone was clamoring over the EU.... happens ALL the time

Ive just been trading the kiwi/aussie/asian session lately into london open

works better for where I live and its pretty darn smooth PA and S/D type trading with very few crazy youripeein currency type spikes and manipulations...
  • #56,837
  • Sep 28, 2012 5:51pm Sep 28, 2012 5:51pm
Oh yes

I live in Europe and during the London session i can't stay on the charts because I work, so for swing-trades I prefer, as you say, the techical pairs such as kiwi and Aussie (And then I also take the rollover eheh)

But the whole world watches at the E/U so it's interesting to see what the market think of the respective news, etc and during the day it's the most exciting...

Here it's 1 am so i'm going to sleep.. Good night
  • #56,838
  • Sep 28, 2012 11:55pm Sep 28, 2012 11:55pm
Here is my Prediction about coming October Month. I hope this will follow the tradition of Closing Positive. Only 2008 Year I found bad I think because of recession at that time.

2012 Oct values are only average and hope we will get values closer the figures.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Prediction.PNG Size: 33 KB
  • #56,839
  • Sep 29, 2012 12:35am Sep 29, 2012 12:35am
And next I will go by this potential reversal pattern with 3 candle stick combination.

Attached Image
  • #56,840
  • Sep 29, 2012 6:28am Sep 29, 2012 6:28am
http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/a...epublic-either

Snippet:

When the Weimar Republic first started rapidly printing money everything seemed fine at first. Economic activity was buzzing and unemployment was very low.

But as the following chart shows, when hyperinflation kicks in, it can happen very quickly. By late 1922, the effects of all of the money printing were really starting to hit the German economy....
http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/w...ic-425x531.jpg
Once you start printing money it is really, really hard to stop.
By late 1922, inflation was officially out of control. An article in The Economist described what happened next....

Prices roared up. So did unemployment, modest as 1923 began. As October ended, 19% of metal-workers were officially out of work, and half of those left were on short time. Feeble attempts had been made to stabilise prices. Some German states had issued their own would-be stable currency: Baden's was secured on the revenue of state forests, Hanover's convertible into a given quantity of rye. The central authorities issued what became known as “gold loan” notes, payable in 1935. Then, on November 15th, came the Rentenmark, worth 1,000 billion paper marks, or just under 24 American cents, like the gold mark of 1914.

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