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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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EurAnalysis

  • #56,641
  • Sep 28, 2012 3:03am Sep 28, 2012 3:03am
Good Morning traders,



I guess everyone is waiting for the Spanish bank Stress reviews to come out, before getting into positions ?
  • #56,642
  • Sep 28, 2012 3:05am Sep 28, 2012 3:05am
about the month end flows:

http://www.actionforex.com/analysis/...0120925175108/

Let's see how it plays out.
  • #56,643
  • Sep 28, 2012 3:10am Sep 28, 2012 3:10am
Good morning all,
just thought it was worth a mention to the thread.
USD/JPY is extremely oversold on monthly, weekly, daily, 8 hour, 6hour,
turning up on 4 hour

even though this pair has been called the widowmaker it is just above a major support line 1 day/ 3 yr.
downside is limited risk and upside is big gain
  • #56,644
  • Sep 28, 2012 3:25am Sep 28, 2012 3:25am
Here we are...
EUR/JPY going much better.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Click to Enlarge Name: eurjpy daily 28.09.2012.jpg Size: 95 KB
  • #56,645
  • Sep 28, 2012 3:44am Sep 28, 2012 3:44am
no charts. no magic lines or quarter ending flux capacitor readings blah blah blah....

just look at the bigger picture. keep it simple.

election. election. election.

have a great weekend all...
  • #56,646
  • Sep 28, 2012 4:20am Sep 28, 2012 4:20am
i just took profit and scaled way back. this end of month/end of quarter might get really squirrely. still hanging onto my calls and praying for 140....
Any prices quoted are futures
  • #56,647
  • Sep 28, 2012 4:25am Sep 28, 2012 4:25am
Quoting redteamgo
i just took profit and scaled way back. this end of month/end of quarter might get really squirrely. still hanging onto my calls and praying for 140....
Your prayers might be answered.... in 2013
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #56,648
  • Sep 28, 2012 4:27am Sep 28, 2012 4:27am
Quoting godrich
no charts. no magic lines or quarter ending flux capacitor readings blah blah blah....

just look at the bigger picture. keep it simple.

election. election. election.

have a great weekend all...
Elections mean different things to different traders.
Some see the elections as risk positive. Others see it as risk negative.
All depends on which side of the houise you sit.
How do you see it?
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #56,649
  • Sep 28, 2012 4:29am Sep 28, 2012 4:29am

Quoting PipTrapper
Your prayers might be answered.... in 2013
Trading Consultants Inc JJG
  • #56,650
  • Sep 28, 2012 4:29am Sep 28, 2012 4:29am
Quoting godrich
no charts. no magic lines or quarter ending flux capacitor readings blah blah blah....

just look at the bigger picture. keep it simple.

election. election. election.

have a great weekend all...
Sounds like Mitt Romney in disguise.
  • #56,651
  • Sep 28, 2012 4:31am Sep 28, 2012 4:31am
Quoting PipTrapper
Your prayers might be answered.... in 2013
monday, dec 31 2012 could be my day

unfortunately, i had to eat some red from yesterday. c'est la vie!
Any prices quoted are futures
  • #56,652
  • Sep 28, 2012 4:42am Sep 28, 2012 4:42am
Quoting Ken A
Sounds like Mitt Romney in disguise.
mitt romney in disguise ???

more like a person who is simply pointing out that you can fill your charts with all sorts of mumbo jumbo, hang on every last "report" that comes out and overanalyse it to death or simply acknowledge that there are much bigger events/forces dictating which direction the markets will head and go from there.

anyway i have to go now, i am awaiting the results of the eu red dwarf potato crop report which i will cross reference with my inverted zero gravity indicator.

all the best....
  • #56,653
  • Sep 28, 2012 4:44am Sep 28, 2012 4:44am
Quoting godrich
mitt romney in disguise ???

more like a person who is simply pointing out that you can fill your charts with all sorts of mumbo jumbo, hang on every last "report" that comes out and overanalyse it to death or simply acknowledge that there are much bigger events/forces dictating which direction the markets will head and go from there.

anyway i have to go now, i am awaiting the results of the eu red dwarf potato crop report which i will cross reference with my inverted zero gravity indicator.

all the best....
i couldnt agree more. all of the reports outside of CB and real macro economic indicators are just daily noise when your trading TF is larger. if you are intraday, they are your bread and butter though. off until spanish stress test wihich will be, "EVERYTHING IS GREAT." then off for weekend. g/l all
Any prices quoted are futures
  • #56,654
  • Sep 28, 2012 4:44am Sep 28, 2012 4:44am
EuroZone CPI y/y estimates are out at +2.7% (headline)

If you exclude Food, Alcohol, Tobacco and Energy (Which are heavily taxed), you get the core inflation. Using the weightings in the chart, that gives us an estimated core CPI of 1.5%

Here's the calculation

Non Energy Industrial Goods = 0.8 x 0.2847 = 0.22776
Services = 2.0 x 0.4147 = 0.8294
Total weighting = 0.2874 + 0.4147 = 0.6994

0.22776+0.8294 = 1.05716
1.05716 / 0.6994 = 1.51152416356 = 1.5%

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EUcpiEst.gif Size: 21 KB
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #56,655
  • Sep 28, 2012 4:46am Sep 28, 2012 4:46am
Quoting cdndollar
EurCad basing side to up above 1.26 with UsdCad heading for the .9750~70 support zone could add more fuel to pop Euro above 1.30..
Euro took over the lead from GBP compliment of the crosses..
EG & EJ rising nicely from their bases.. Break over 1.2680 by the lager EurCad while UsdCad grinds side to down could set the stage for the month end slug match up @ the 1.30~1.31 fight zone..

EU EG EJ UC EC H4
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Euro capture-20120928-102808 H4.png Size: 110 KB
  • #56,656
  • Edited 5:09am Sep 28, 2012 4:48am | Edited 5:09am
Change of guard also implies change of international relationships.

Where you have nations with high unemployment, gaining technological know how is important to relieve that unemployment. So that is to whom it will turn.

Countries with broken export models have to shift to domestic consumption models to generate GDP for leadership to not get ousted by the locals.

Nations that have relied upon outside border lenders to sustain unsustainable spending levels must change their ways. Cheap energy + educated unemployed + moving away from a consumption based debt driven model = internationaly competitive country.

You can plug in the names.

add: in international "Lets make a Deal" other factors are highly overvalued currencies who have something to sell combined with territorial disputes. The implications are pretty big and will affect money flows.

So where does one get in for the long pull?
  • #56,657
  • Sep 28, 2012 4:48am Sep 28, 2012 4:48am
Quoting godrich
mitt romney in disguise ???

more like a person who is simply pointing out that you can fill your charts with all sorts of mumbo jumbo, hang on every last "report" that comes out and overanalyse it to death or simply acknowledge that there are much bigger events/forces dictating which direction the markets will head and go from there.

anyway i have to go now, i am awaiting the results of the eu red dwarf potato crop report which i will cross reference with my inverted zero gravity indicator.

all the best....
Have you come here to mock other trading styles, or are you here to offer your analysis?
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #56,658
  • Sep 28, 2012 4:56am Sep 28, 2012 4:56am
Quoting PipTrapper
Have you come here to mock other trading styles, or are you here to offer your analysis?
so offering my opinion is mocking other trading styles ?

actually i was responding to a sarcastic remark from ken a concerning my post.
  • #56,659
  • Sep 28, 2012 5:05am Sep 28, 2012 5:05am
Quoting godrich
so offering my opinion is mocking other trading styles ?

actually i was responding to a sarcastic remark from ken a concerning my post.
Let's get this straight. If you go back to your first very post here, who responded and what did he say?

But keep imposing such views to others, what does that imply?

Right.


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  • #56,660
  • Sep 28, 2012 5:07am Sep 28, 2012 5:07am
Quoting godrich
so offering my opinion is mocking other trading styles ?

actually i was responding to a sarcastic remark from ken a concerning my post.
You are more than welcome to offer up your opinion here. In fact I encourage it. However, you must do so according to the rules of conduct for this thread which you can find here.

Thanks
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
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