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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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EurAnalysis

  • #56,381
  • Sep 26, 2012 7:30am Sep 26, 2012 7:30am
My short Eur/Cad stopped out at BE. What does that mean? Intervention?
  • #56,382
  • Sep 26, 2012 7:33am Sep 26, 2012 7:33am
Quoting letscry
what is happening with gold any idea?
Not attractive anymore. It makes you look old.
  • #56,383
  • Sep 26, 2012 7:37am Sep 26, 2012 7:37am
Looks as if the party started early. Tear Gas in Athens anyone?

Ken that 50 sma on the 4hr has been holding am looking to short again if it gets there. 1.2690 EURO/CAD
  • #56,384
  • Sep 26, 2012 7:38am Sep 26, 2012 7:38am
Quoting Ken A
Not attractive anymore. It makes you look old.
old but rich
  • #56,385
  • Sep 26, 2012 7:41am Sep 26, 2012 7:41am
Quoting letscry
what is happening with gold any idea?
Capital flight to safety of US bonds... Not as old, but richer.

US 10Y H4
Attached Image
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #56,386
  • Sep 26, 2012 7:44am Sep 26, 2012 7:44am
Quoting foto
Looks as if the party started early. Tear Gas in Athens anyone?

Ken that 50 sma on the 4hr has been holding am looking to short again if it gets there. 1.2690 EURO/CAD
Alright. I am with naked charts no MA.

Need to learn to close position. Too many stopped out at BE recently.
  • #56,387
  • Sep 26, 2012 7:48am Sep 26, 2012 7:48am
Quoting foto
PT thanks for that very gracious picture post, so very much appreciated and supportive of my analysis.

Now where are all those scalpers who employ the first and second Laws of Thermodynamics and manage to discern the most elegant of subtleties of direction.
OK - I admit it - I did hit the Buy button when the 40 area held with higher momentum on the 15m and lower TFs......but then I got distracted by a bar of soap and the thought of Islander's Law about two in a shower leading to ....... and so I hit the exit bottom .....
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #56,388
  • Sep 26, 2012 7:54am Sep 26, 2012 7:54am
Quoting letscry
what is happening with gold any idea?
a correction and inverse hs with right shoulder forming
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: xauusddailyhs.gif Size: 30 KB
Wooooohooooo or Boooooohooooo
  • #56,389
  • Sep 26, 2012 8:03am Sep 26, 2012 8:03am
PipT,

What are the most important characteristics of a valid swing point (for using as a S/R level)?
  • #56,390
  • Sep 26, 2012 8:04am Sep 26, 2012 8:04am
Islanders Law huh.
That freaking PT just do not pay attention to that man.

Good Bye!
  • #56,391
  • Sep 26, 2012 8:20am Sep 26, 2012 8:20am
Quoting gnomoneey
a correction and inverse hs with right shoulder forming
I do not see an inverted H/S
What I see is a box range with an 1802 high and a 1522 low
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #56,392
  • Sep 26, 2012 8:24am Sep 26, 2012 8:24am
interesting PA

  • #56,393
  • Sep 26, 2012 8:25am Sep 26, 2012 8:25am
Quoting PipTrapper
I do not see an inverted H/S
What I see is a box range with an 1802 high and a 1522 low
can't draw lines to show but i promise it's there..
pink is the shoulders and light blue is the head...yes not your perfect hs but been very predictable...i started back on the aug with this pattern and have gotten great results...

sorry if i'm wrong...
Wooooohooooo or Boooooohooooo
  • #56,394
  • Sep 26, 2012 8:28am Sep 26, 2012 8:28am
Quoting gnomoneey
a correction and inverse hs with right shoulder forming
I'm holding short since the last upmove (13Sept) based on.

1. Central banks have had there QE chances for 2012.
2. Retail is massive long again.
3. I like to be contrary

Target @ around 1680 & lower
Inflation in things we need, Deflation in things we want.
  • #56,395
  • Sep 26, 2012 8:29am Sep 26, 2012 8:29am
think good US housing data can push DXY to break and hold over 80?
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  • #56,396
  • Sep 26, 2012 8:29am Sep 26, 2012 8:29am
Quoting lumesh
PipT,

What are the most important characteristics of a valid swing point (for using as a S/R level)?
The most important is that it is in the same context as previous clearly visible swings.

However the technical characteristic of a valid swing high point is as follows:

The two candles immediately to the right and the two candles immediately to the left of the high candle must have progressively lower highs and at minimum, the outer candles in the group of 5 must have lows that are lower than the low of the middle candle. Furthermore, the 5 candles must only represent a portion (around 38.2% or less) of the entire swing and not represent the majority of (or) the whole swing.

Obviously the inverse applies to a valid swing low point.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #56,397
  • Sep 26, 2012 8:35am Sep 26, 2012 8:35am
Quoting gnomoneey
can't draw lines to show but i promise it's there..
pink is the shoulders and light blue is the head...yes not your perfect hs but been very predictable...i started back on the aug with this pattern and have gotten great results...

sorry if i'm wrong...
I'm not saying you're wrong. All I'm saying is that unless/until it breaks above the high, it's not anything other than a range
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #56,398
  • Sep 26, 2012 8:36am Sep 26, 2012 8:36am
Quoting neuron
think good US housing data can push DXY to break and hold over 80?
That's a tricky one. Good housing data could spur a risk-on rally which would be USD negative as capital flows out of US bonds into riskier higher yielding global assets... probably not Spanish or Greek though
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #56,399
  • Sep 26, 2012 8:38am Sep 26, 2012 8:38am
Quoting PipTrapper
That's a tricky one. Good housing data could spur a risk-on rally which would be USD negative as capital flows out of US bonds into riskier higher yielding global assets... probably not Spanish or Greek though
good point, didn't think of that!

with that said, and the support i'm witnessing here i think i'm closing some of my shorts and waiting to re enter later this week
  • #56,400
  • Sep 26, 2012 8:49am Sep 26, 2012 8:49am
Serious battle in the Euro/USD. The EURO/CAD showed that there was big support that entered at about 8 am est on the EURO/USD. My interpretation is that when the EURO gets supported against the USD the EURO/Commodity crosses tend to move strongly as the economies are smaller and not as much money is needed to produce a result.

But we are not getting any bounce in the EURO/USD which shows that money is following price down rather then waiting to sell on a retrace.
Bearish bias is strengthened by this pa.

Sometimes the big money keeps going past the London close and into the NY lunch hour. Can only wait to see what happens further.
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