Michele FF trading diary. Yesss

Hi all.

This thread will be my trading journal where, every day, I write my orders, the action on the opened position (SL move, tp, etc), and my analysis.

Why I named this thread "Diary" and not "journal"?
Because I think a person should never stop learning, NEVER!
I'm continually looking for insights, methods of analysis (Cyclical, psychological, ..), etc. to improve my trading system and my view of the market then any new thing I learn I'll will share it here, my goal is to make this thread like a biography of my "life as a trader" where all can learn from my experience and improve it commenting my posts with their opinions, advide and whatever you want.

All in your hands - trading system

I think the traders have got all they need to make a good analysis and be profitable. About the price we can know:

1. Why? Fundamental analysis. (But as Jesse Livermore said it's not so important)
2. Who? Behavioral finance, Psychology of the crowds.
3. How? Technical analysis
4. When? Cyclical analysis

Operativity

My trading rules are the "W.D. Gann's rules"

The best TF I like trading is the Daily beacuse is the least stressful, the candlestick and charts patterns are much more reiable and a some other good reason shown here Why Trading The Daily Charts Will Improve Your Trading Results

Tools:

The only one true indicator is the price, so my trading system is based mainly on the price action with candlestick patterns, chart patterns, trend lines, S&R, fibonacci, etc but I helps me with:

 

1. A slow stochastic (10,3,6) for the divergence.
2. EMA21 and EMA100 for dynamic S&R.

And finally with vertical lines, calculated with my cyclical indicator, which show the beginning and end of the respective cycle.
Since, as I said, I'm a swing trader, I work on the intermediate cycle(64 days) and I control the upper cycle (128 days) and the lower (32 days).

But all these "tools" are only an help since the indicators tell you the past and, as theory of variability said, the duration of the cycle are not costant (they last longer when the cycle is bullish and less when is bearish) so my operativity is deteminated only by the price action singnal!

Other tools
Traders positioning
COT index
Forex factory calendar

Risk:reward
I open a position only when R:R is greater than 1:1 and I risk no more than 2%.

Learning source
I suggest you this book:
Beyond candlestick - Steve Nison (I think the best book about candlestick pattern)
The basics of the Elliot Wave principle - Robert R. Prechter (basics of impulse and corrective waves)
J.M. Hurst - The Profit Magic of Stock Transaction Timing (Cycle theory)
Day trading the currency market - Kathy Lien (the best book for who is new in this market)
The disciplined trader - Douglas Mark (trader psycology)

(If you want some of these in PDF format, ask me )

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The posts about this tradyng system star at the 10th reply.
The previous replys come from my old and not studied system, as you can see there aren't cycle line, etc.. don't look at these.

Let's start with the chartss

Today Eurostoxx has broken his support line and USdollar index from FXCM shows a bullish pin bar with a test of 9.800 support so I expect, in the coming days, a continuation of the retracement for USD pairs..

My trade:

USD/JPY

Price is still in a Range market and the W and Daily chart show two bullish divergence (regular in weekly and hidden in Daily).

The candle of today is a spinning top with low on the support and high on the 0.618 Fibo so I think this may be a signal of indecision or reversal (Morning star?) farther the SSI (Sentiment indicator from fxcm) show a new net-long record that indicate we may be near a significant turning point..

So I place a buy-stop pending order some pips above the high of the spinning top with SL at the low.



Sorry again for my bad english, good luck and see you tomorrow

Your english is fine. In fact, it is much better than most who speak it as their native language. So you have nothing to apologize for.

Thanks My problem is that I'm afraid of not explain well what I mean in my analysis, but I will improve my english too

Forgive my ignorance, what is Eurostoxx??

Euro Stoxx 50 is a stock index that wich covers the biggest 50 company from the Eurozone..

I use it to analyze the "trust" of the investors and the flow of capital toward Europe, if i see that EStoxx breaks an important resistance that leads me to think that the "trust" of investors to Europe is rising and there's a good flow of capital e so it's good for Euro currency..

This is the Bloomberg's page of this Index: http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/SX5E:IND

Hi all

Bad days for the stock market with a lot of macro bad news..

Euro and correlated are approaching to a critical level, the entry is near..

My trade

USD/JPY

Today my pending order was not hit, but I leave them there because the candle of today is again a spinning top, the 5,3,3 stoch turned upward confirming the bullish divergence and today we have seen this news (http://www.forexfactory.com/news.php?do=news&id=386344 ) that should push down the yen..

Hi all,

Good day for euro and correlated helped by bad news from america and good news from Spain and Greece..

(In reality it isn't so, I live in Europe and I see how is the situation.. but in the market count the lies and what the papers say, as Henry Ford said:
"Ducks lay eggs discreetly, on the other hand a chicken makes noise so the whole estate can hear. What is the result? The whole world eats chicken eggs, just few use duck eggs.")


UsDollar has bounced from its EMA21 pushed by bad news and Stoch shows a bearish divergence, so in short term I expect a continuation of the bearish trend until 9'760-9'670 before a definitive reversal...



Usd/Cad

General strenght for the Canadian Dollar that combined with the weakness of the Usd sends lead the pair below the support forming a two-days pin bar..
At the moment the price is near their is close to its bullish trend-line and if it breaks it we could see a return to 0,9670 and so on..



My trade: pending sell stop order at 0,9785.

Aud/Usd

Such as Cad, this pair is near to brakeout the bullish flag after bouncing on the resistance forming a pinbar. Therefore, if the price break the bearish channel the possibility of the formation of the harmonic pattern could recur..

Harmonic pattern


Daily chart


My trade: pendin buy stop order @ 1.0465

Eur/Jpy

Price rebounded from bullish TL and its ema100, the candle has closed over the 0,382 level forming a pinbar, Stoch shows a bullish divergence and this yesterday news should lead Jpy lower..



My trade: Pending buy stop orders @ 100,60

Really a bad day for my trade, I've buy too early and too far from the demand zone that I had identified for Aud/Usd and Eur/Jpy... And I've put my pending orders below the short-term resistance and not above for that the price have hit my orders and than it has bounced off.. A stupid error but every SL is a lesson..

The macroeconomic situation is not defined so the institutional traders focus their activities on the short-term making the market more moved..

Hi all.

Sorry for this month's absence, I have studied some books about the cyclical analysis and it tooks the most part of my free time.

Now, I completely updated the first post, I have implemented the cyclical analysis it in my trading system, and I'm ready to re-start sharing my operativity with a more knowledge and experience.

In the coming days I'll share my cyclical indicator and what I've learn from this analysis method.

I hope you'll appreciate,

Best regards

Nzd/Usd

Price are rising after the end of the 32days cycle (In this case it takes 35 days because it was a bullish cycle so it last longer) bouncing from the support.

The trend of 128days cycle is still up but since now the directions of the 64D and 128D are concordant so this rise could be the last one in this cycle.

Price action tells us that it's in a RM near a strong supply zone where it had difficulty to make a new high in the past weeks..

This week I'll wait a bearish signal near the resistance.

U/Cad

Bearish confluence at this level:

0,618 Fibonacci Fan
EMA200
Up TL of the channel
Bearish divergence
It's near the end of the 30days cycle so it should have a bottom.

In my opinion a last spike to 1.025 is possibile so I'm waiting for a short-signal in this area

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...6&d=1351439893

Eur/Gbp

Trend: UP

Price is at the end of its 3month cycle and shows a bullish pinbar on the rising trendline with a false breakout of the support.
I Think it should resume the trend.

Buy orders @ 0,8040 SL 0,80

Same thing for E/U.

Trend: UP

Bullish pinbar on the rising trend line at the end of the cycle 3month cycle and there could be a bullish divergence.



Fundamental analysis tells me that it's a risky trade as for Spain Bailout, etc but using a good money mangement it's not a problem. I have my SL and it will save me eheh

As Gann said:
Good luck

Hi all

Tomorrow Draghi and BOJ governator speak so I expect an increase of volatility..


Trades still in process

Eur/Gbp

Price have triggered my buy ordes, it's still in gain and I keep the trade open..



Most of pairs show a sign of uncertainity probably for the important data and conference coming in this week.. Let's wait

Hi all

As yesterday no new trades...

E/U shows an engulfing pattern, G/U an inside candle and the raw materials pairs show indecision... let's wait again

Trade in process:

Eur/Gbp

Trade still in gain, I keep it open




Happy Halloween to everyone

Hi all

New orders:

Eur/Cad

It shows a bearish pinbar on a supply zone and stoch has a bearish divergence.



As regards the cycles in this period the Euro has a confused configuration because it's helped by the news, etc.. I'm waiting the next moves to determinate if it's in a 3period cycle or not..

Trades open:

Eur/Gbp.

Price has done a retracement and now I'm losing 5 pips but price is still in the bullish channel and as Gann said:

I keep my trade open..

Good night

Eur/Gbp

It has retraced until the support zone around 0,80 level and bounced back making a new pinbar.

According to the candlesticks analysis this could be a retest of the low of the previous hammer and as for cyclical analysis this retracement could be a "bayer's tongue" (I don't know the real english name of this, sorry)

Trend is still up and stoch shows a bullish divergence. I keep the trande open.



Eur/Cad

Price have triggered my sell ordes. Trade is still in profit and I keep it open.

Aud/Cad

Another test of the resistance around 1.04 doing an inside spinning top candle.

Trend is still up but it's at an important combat zone between bulls and bears as shown within the gray rectangles.

I place my pending orders below the low of the spinning top with strict SL and TP being against the trend.

Eur/Gbp

It hits my SL. -40 pips

Eur/Cad

It hits my TP. +110 pips