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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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  • #56,241
  • Sep 25, 2012 1:32pm Sep 25, 2012 1:32pm
Quoting Ken A
How far down?
to 2900 where all this Lagarde crap rally started from..
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  • #56,242
  • Sep 25, 2012 1:44pm Sep 25, 2012 1:44pm
Quoting Ken A
How far down?
As for a bit longer term - yesterdays close was well below that old H4 trend channel - that indicates further movement down in my observations. Often after rejection of 200 % extensions of such channels price comes back to break and form new opposite direction channel..
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  • #56,243
  • Sep 25, 2012 1:49pm Sep 25, 2012 1:49pm
Quoting Likerty
As for a bit longer term - yesterdays close was well below that old H4 trend channel - that indicates further movement down in my observations. Often after rejection of 200 % extensions of such channels price comes back to breake and form new opposite direction channel..
I sure hope so. Hated it with +200-300 pips stopped out at BE when PA returns.
  • #56,244
  • Sep 25, 2012 1:50pm Sep 25, 2012 1:50pm
Quoting Likerty
to 2900 where all this Lagarde crap rally started from..
Not really. It may but IF this is going to go up this is a perfect spot to stop and hold.
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  • #56,245
  • Edited 2:18pm Sep 25, 2012 2:03pm | Edited 2:18pm
Quoting TRMZXT
Not really. It may but IF this is going to go up this is a perfect spot to stop and hold.
It just made a HL in H1 so it is quite possible.. BUT I guess that more important is what kind of orders were accumulated (and if they were closed) in that early London consolidation range.. Just right before BIS buying and that crap Lagarde announcement on Bloomberg it was starting to break lower - it closed H1 at 2897 - below frankie open.. SO if NY didnt moved it up by now - it surely wont by the end of the session..and Asians..? They sold yesterday HARD...
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  • #56,246
  • Sep 25, 2012 2:06pm Sep 25, 2012 2:06pm
Quoting PipTrapper
Guess it wasn't such a bad idea after all... so far.

Saved by the protesters.

Austerity protesters rioting in Madrid and surrounding the parliament buildings.
This could end badly.
Are you sure that's the main reason? All USD pairs are going down PT.
  • #56,247
  • Sep 25, 2012 2:07pm Sep 25, 2012 2:07pm
Quoting TRMZXT
Not really. It may but IF this is going to go up this is a perfect spot to stop and hold.

well since that isn't happening it may go for a new low quickly.
  • #56,248
  • Sep 25, 2012 2:08pm Sep 25, 2012 2:08pm
Quoting Likerty
It just made a HL in H1 so it is quite possible.. BUT I guess that more important is what kind of orders were accumulated (and if they were closed) in that early London consolidation range.. Just right before BIS buying and that crap Lagarde announcement on Bloomberg it was starting to break lower - it closed H1 at 2987 - below frankie open.. SO if NY didnt moved it up by now - it surely wont by the end of the session..and Asians..? They sold yesterday HARD...

yep and they do tend to be repeat customers the next day.
  • #56,249
  • Sep 25, 2012 2:21pm Sep 25, 2012 2:21pm
it may run right through the bottom to a 25 pip low or a little more. If it breaks 900 you better watch out.
  • #56,250
  • Sep 25, 2012 2:32pm Sep 25, 2012 2:32pm
MAKE LOVE NOT WAR, i want better sell positions
How to Win at Sports Betting: DON'T DO IT!
  • #56,251
  • Sep 25, 2012 2:33pm Sep 25, 2012 2:33pm
Quoting PipTrapper
Nice try

However, since I'm a nice guy, here it is...

You're very welcome

thanks a million, buddy. Truly appreciate it.

Now, since you really are a nice guy i'm gonna ask for your explanation about the re-test of previous supports/resistances. Namely, am i correct in assuming that you expect most of the untested areas to be tested some time in the future (an example of untested area at 1.2650 on E/U) ?

Is there any specific timeframe you where you get more reliable re-test or you pretty much expect this even on a 5min chart as well ?

Also, i attached a G/U chart with S/R levels, all of which were left untested. How would you treat that situation ? I am assuming this is not normal market behaviour ?

thanks
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  • #56,252
  • Sep 25, 2012 2:46pm Sep 25, 2012 2:46pm
Just keep in mind that what is going on in Madrid is seen all over the World. Spain is big enough that this very well can spread to all countries affected by depression or deep recession.

There is no going back once the fires of rebellion come to Europe. Emotions run high and things go wrong in a very big way in a very short period of time.
  • #56,253
  • Sep 25, 2012 2:58pm Sep 25, 2012 2:58pm
Quoting foto
Just keep in mind that what is going on in Madrid is seen all over the World. Spain is big enough that this very well can spread to all countries affected by depression or deep recession.

There is no going back once the fires of rebellion come to Europe. Emotions run high and things go wrong in a very big way in a very short period of time.

What socialists fighting for more handouts? LOL
  • #56,254
  • Sep 25, 2012 3:05pm Sep 25, 2012 3:05pm
E/U still holding strong @ 1.2900.

Other USD pairs are still going down.
  • #56,255
  • Sep 25, 2012 3:10pm Sep 25, 2012 3:10pm
Quoting Ken A
E/U still holding strong @ 1.2900.

Other USD pairs are still going down.

watch out if it gets under 900 before close.
  • #56,256
  • Sep 25, 2012 3:15pm Sep 25, 2012 3:15pm
It no longer is about socialism or conservatism, it is about people reaching the end of their tolerences.
This is why the thread exists, that the Euro is a slapped together entity without common economic reasons for existence.
That the Euro was unsustainable and Sovereign debt cannot be dealt with in a common currency regime.

Draghi is not correct in saying the Euro is irreversible. When a whole Nation rejects the currency, it is reversible. Treaties are only as good as there are willing participants.

Enough people rising up in Spain, and descent is rising Catalonia, Madrid, Basques, then the Government of Spain will be forced to make a choice between the Euro and keeping Spain in one piece. Force of arms will be rejected by the Spainish people so they will reject the Euro.

Either the Euro falls in value allowing for the economies to recover or the Euro becomes another footnote in History

For now my trade is based upon flight capital out of Europe.
EURO/USD EURO/CAD EURO/GBP Short

add: I did get back in today, a bit early but short term entries is a weakness of mine. Look at the drop in the AUD/USD Asia crapped in its pants today seeing Madrid live. So did those who have been playing the Aussie carry trade.
  • #56,257
  • Sep 25, 2012 3:15pm Sep 25, 2012 3:15pm
Deleted all pending orders. What is going on in Spain might change the whole story.

Added short @ 1.2910.
  • #56,258
  • Sep 25, 2012 3:23pm Sep 25, 2012 3:23pm
Quoting Ken A
Deleted all pending orders. What is going on in Spain might change the whole story.

Added short @ 1.2910.
my reasoning is the market sometimes at the end of the US session when near a resistance will just spike it really hard especially mid week. Doesn't happen often but I have seen this type of PA before.
  • #56,259
  • Sep 25, 2012 3:37pm Sep 25, 2012 3:37pm
Quoting lumesh
Also, i attached a G/U chart with S/R levels, all of which were left untested. How would you treat that situation ? I am assuming this is not normal market behaviour ?

thanks
what are you talking about? they all got filled.
  • #56,260
  • Sep 25, 2012 3:38pm Sep 25, 2012 3:38pm
Quoting foto
It no longer is about socialism or conservatism, it is about people reaching the end of their tolerences.
This is why the thread exists, that the Euro is a slapped together entity without common economic reasons for existence.
That the Euro was unsustainable and Sovereign debt cannot be dealt with in a common currency regime.

Draghi is not correct in saying the Euro is irreversible. When a whole Nation rejects the currency, it is reversible. Treaties are only as good as there are willing participants.

Enough people rising up in Spain, and descent...
I would disagree it is all about socialism as the core aspect of failure. The very aspect ofthe nature of Europe along with the bolded text is the reason. Socialistic cultures combined with the above totally will never work. Also in the end I don't think any of the governments will do any better than the Euro. Faulty foundation is always faulty with friends or alone.
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