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  • #696,981
  • Sep 24, 2012 6:32pm Sep 24, 2012 6:32pm
Quoting attila
tossing a coin with proper money management is a valid way to trade.
Sure, if the coin is loaded!
  • #696,982
  • Sep 24, 2012 6:33pm Sep 24, 2012 6:33pm
Just something i have noticed yesterday, the ridiculous over reaction to the German IFO red numbers ... the bearish managed to maintain it's gaining from that time ! So, since we have sign of reversal down there - if the German consumer comes out in Green and they will , the second signal should be maintianing these gains !

I would conclude it has reversed
"It's the Margin, Stupid."
  • #696,983
  • Sep 24, 2012 6:34pm Sep 24, 2012 6:34pm
Quoting RWalker
Sure, if the coin is loaded!
But seriously, I have seen a proof that this is equivalent to a martingale... too late in the day to argue it vigorously though.
  • #696,984
  • Sep 24, 2012 6:37pm Sep 24, 2012 6:37pm
people have this apprehension about calling the market random

because they feel that if they accept this fact then the cannot find the holy grail.

let me be more politically correct the market is chaotic.

there are other philosophical position with randomness as people do not just randomly jump in...every order is a decision (the random or chaos comes from conflicting positions, equilibrium and disequilibrium, however I still do not think that people will ever posses the skill to KNOW where the market is going)

its more of an analysis and risk covering, betting on inefficiencies and risk management yet again.
AVT INVENIAM VIAM AVT FACIAM
  • #696,985
  • Sep 24, 2012 6:38pm Sep 24, 2012 6:38pm
Quoting attila
tossing a coin with proper money management is a valid way to trade.
Wait a minute... I'm going to agree with you on that.

If there is the added element of judgement about when to get out of the trade... then, yes a skilled trader could do very very well.


PS: thought of something else - doing the coin toss thing and focusing strictly on when to get out would be a great practice exercise for someone who has trouble avoiding draw-downs.
  • #696,986
  • Sep 24, 2012 6:41pm Sep 24, 2012 6:41pm
there is no "holly grail"

there are facts & matters.

walker.

"because they feel that if they accept this fact then the cannot find the holy grail."

Quoting the redlion
people have this apprehension about calling the market random

because they feel that if they accept this fact then the cannot find the holy grail.

let me be more politically correct the market is chaotic.

there are other philosophical position with randomness as people do not just randomly jump in...every order is a decision (the random or chaos comes from conflicting positions, equilibrium and disequilibrium, however I still do not think that people will ever posses the skill to KNOW where the market is going)

its more of an analysis...
  • #696,987
  • Sep 24, 2012 6:43pm Sep 24, 2012 6:43pm
hello bro´s!!!!! back from honeymoon just fresh married!! delightfull times at kefalonia and ithaca!i´ll post some fotos at my perfil...
back to business, the next target to be it seems to be 1.2750, strong support to balance to climb up again to new highs...tomorrow i´ll attach chart because today i´m writing on htc..so, and as I´m hungry for action, i´ve just opened, low leverage:

SHORT 1.2930
SL 1.3051
TP: 1.2800

I´ll short other low leverage at 1.3020, with same SL and TP, if it goes there...

peace

ps: ofcourse i´ve also pending order to LONG High Leverage at 1.2750
  • #696,988
  • Sep 24, 2012 6:44pm Sep 24, 2012 6:44pm
Quoting RWalker
But seriously, I have seen a proof that this is equivalent to a martingale... too late in the day to argue it vigorously though.
Yeah, but the only way Martingale would work if you have an infinite amount of money , plus an accurate counting of possible profit and loses ! Its true you can have a 4 pip gaining and you martingale on that. But one of these days , the results will be offsetted by sudden change in market sentiment that results in a huge push down , causing stop lose to be triggarred on slippage
"It's the Margin, Stupid."
  • #696,989
  • Sep 24, 2012 6:45pm Sep 24, 2012 6:45pm
one of the best secured algos in the world is the "Random Number Generator" algos.

due those has an algo to create Random Numbers.

& when this algo known you will know the next RANDOM number.

I dont say you MAY, you WILL.

walker.
Quoting stevewalker
there is no "holly grail"

there are facts & matters.

walker.

"because they feel that if they accept this fact then the cannot find the holy grail."
  • #696,990
  • Sep 24, 2012 6:48pm Sep 24, 2012 6:48pm
long in Run.

walker.

Quoting stevewalker
closed short trade with -2 pips.

flat.

walker.
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  • #696,991
  • Sep 24, 2012 6:55pm Sep 24, 2012 6:55pm
Quoting Vachus
Yeah, but the only way Martingale would work if you have an infinite amount of money , plus an accurate counting of possible profit and loses ! Its true you can have a 4 pip gaining and you martingale on that. But one of these days , the results will be offsetted by sudden change in market sentiment that results in a huge push down , causing stop lose to be triggarred on slippage
I was mistaken there... I did see a mathematical proof that MM cannot make a coin toss with a fixed stop profitable but the Martingale equivalence thing is wrong (sorry, long day)...

Attila is absolutely right about coin toss trading profitably if you add judgement about when to close.
  • #696,992
  • Sep 24, 2012 7:00pm Sep 24, 2012 7:00pm
my two cents,

exit is always much more improtant then the entry.

walker.
Quoting RWalker
I was mistaken there... I did see a mathematical proof that MM cannot make a coin toss with a fixed stop profitable but the Martingale equivalence thing is wrong (sorry, long day)...

Attila is absolutely right about coin toss trading profitably if you add judgement about when to close.
  • #696,993
  • Sep 24, 2012 7:02pm Sep 24, 2012 7:02pm
even Random Numbers are not random.

how that amount money can be!!!

walker.

Quoting stevewalker
one of the best secured algos in the world is the "Random Number Generator" algos.

due those has an algo to create Random Numbers.

& when this algo known you will know the next RANDOM number.

I dont say you MAY, you WILL.

walker.
  • #696,994
  • Edited 8:29pm Sep 24, 2012 7:17pm | Edited 8:29pm
Quoting Vachus
Yeah, but the only way Martingale would work if you have an infinite amount of money , plus an accurate counting of possible profit and loses ! Its true you can have a 4 pip gaining and you martingale on that. But one of these days , the results will be offsetted by sudden change in market sentiment that results in a huge push down , causing stop lose to be triggarred on slippage

Martingale does work it only matters scale and what type of style. I use three systems. A scalp martingale type and a long term system. They all work. It all comes down to your rules on what type of trades can be taken and what range you add to trades on Martingale. I am short term which I have never went more than 2 days in a martingale type system. Markets retrace as they have to. Rule 1. Never trade on a news day in which extreme movements will be made until 30 minutes to a couple hours after the news or event. In my martingale system If the Market ever retrace back 25-40 depending on support in relation to the quarter number it is a break even trade or profit. Even then I add to at major resistance points on signals of small reverses. It also depends on if it is a little over the quarter number. Always trade off of major resistance in which you know the market will never go forward in that directions without backing off 25 pips at some point which would be general trend. My range is 250 pips max. Never been beyond 90 and even then it was my fault because of failed entry by me. That is just a start. 1 failed trade because major news came up and simply did not want to deal with it when you are only a few pips down.
  • #696,995
  • Sep 24, 2012 8:06pm Sep 24, 2012 8:06pm
Hey Rag, were you able to calculate the projected target on the RSI from last night? Or you didn't care? I was curious, I don't have the rsi set up here.

Quoting attila
Be careful with those buy limits there on h1..

Hidden divergence are best for projecting targets.. It means the indicator, the RSI in your case, is overbought for the price at the second high there.. So.. in order to project the next target short, you take the pip amount difference between the two highs and you subtract it from the price where the RSI was at it's lowest between the two highs.. Eyeballing it, should be around 1.3... Eh, maybe your buys are all right after all.

Edit: Another helper when I was using the RSI is draw some trend...
  • #696,996
  • Sep 24, 2012 8:13pm Sep 24, 2012 8:13pm
short stopped out at 1.294.

looking for new entry. I will probably wait until Draghi speaks and catch 15 min - 1 hour movement
Even the worst trade can close with profit. Just give it time.
  • #696,997
  • Sep 24, 2012 8:31pm Sep 24, 2012 8:31pm
Quoting stevewalker
my two cents,

exit is always much more improtant then the entry.

walker.
Urban Myth: in hindsight, you are always able to say that, especially on those picture perfect, long trends you missed!

Entries are terribly, terribly important. They directly define your stop placement, initial risk, and potential loss.

When you enter a trade, you have no idea whether the trade will enjoy a strong trend. You have no crystal ball, you only have now.

Entries define your initial risk, therefore your position size. Money Management is the secret to survival and big profits. Smaller stops, larger position sizes, and catching those long trends are key to be a winning trader.

Of course, none of that may be considered in the way you trade..........

It takes a lot for me to IGNORE you, but you can try.
  • #696,998
  • Sep 24, 2012 8:32pm Sep 24, 2012 8:32pm
Quoting John Gray
short stopped out at 1.294.

looking for new entry. I will probably wait until Draghi speaks and catch 15 min - 1 hour movement
Just finished talking to Mario. He wanted some advice.

Don't want to disturb the market by sharing what he said......................... but since we are friends, let me share only this part that he finally managed to retrieve his cell phone from the WC he dropped into this morning.
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #696,999
  • Sep 24, 2012 8:37pm Sep 24, 2012 8:37pm
Quoting Chicky
Just finished talking to Mario. He wanted some advice.

Don't want to disturb the market by sharing what he said......................... but since we are friends, let me share only this part that he finally managed to retrieve his cell phone from the WC he dropped into this morning.
It's all about how you take it.
Even the worst trade can close with profit. Just give it time.
  • #697,000
  • Sep 24, 2012 8:38pm Sep 24, 2012 8:38pm
Quoting Erebus
Urban Myth: in hindsight, you are always able to say that, especially on those picture perfect, long trends you missed!

Entries are terribly, terribly important. They directly define your stop placement, initial risk, and potential loss.

When you enter a trade, you have no idea whether the trade will enjoy a strong trend. You have no crystal ball, you only have now.

Entries define your initial risk, therefore your position size. Money Management is the secret to survival and big profits. Smaller stops, larger position sizes,...
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