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  • #696,961
  • Sep 24, 2012 5:04pm Sep 24, 2012 5:04pm
Quoting stevewalker
I said it is not random.
I did not say I konw the next move.

Lehman collapsed due they take wrong trades.

when sometihng is not random that is not mean that everbody knows it.

can you please tell me abount Quantum. it is not random but you have no clue about it f you are not physcian.

walker.
I know nothing about Quantum..
  • #696,962
  • Sep 24, 2012 5:07pm Sep 24, 2012 5:07pm
neither me.

but according to your logic then Quantum is random.
becouse you dont konw it.

I dont mean that I know FX. but FX is not random & this game plays between banks. ( private or federal )

walker.

Quoting chess king
I know nothing about Quantum..
  • #696,963
  • Sep 24, 2012 5:14pm Sep 24, 2012 5:14pm
Quoting stevewalker
neither me.

but according to your logic then Quantum is random.
becouse you dont konw it.

I dont mean that I know FX. but FX is not random & this game plays between banks. ( private or federal )

walker.
if I have to do something that happens more often than not ... but I'm not sure of the next step I call random ..
  • #696,964
  • Sep 24, 2012 5:23pm Sep 24, 2012 5:23pm
if this does make you feel better then ok.

but when that amount of big money in play there is nothing random.

believe it or not.

walker.
Quoting chess king
if I have to do something that happens more often than not ... but I'm not sure of the next step I call random ..
  • #696,965
  • Sep 24, 2012 5:32pm Sep 24, 2012 5:32pm
Quoting stevewalker
if this does make you feel better then ok.

but when that amount of big money in play there is nothing random.

believe it or not.

walker.
well one thing I know ... sell to someone there has to be someone to buy..
  • #696,966
  • Sep 24, 2012 5:34pm Sep 24, 2012 5:34pm
there is no shortage for buyers & sellers.

no worries.

good luck!

walker.
Quoting chess king
well one thing I know ... sell to someone there has to be someone to buy..
  • #696,967
  • Sep 24, 2012 5:39pm Sep 24, 2012 5:39pm
Quoting stevewalker
there is no shortage for buyers & sellers.

no worries.

good luck!

walker.
good luck to you too ...
  • #696,968
  • Sep 24, 2012 5:50pm Sep 24, 2012 5:50pm
Quoting stevewalker
neither me.

but according to your logic then Quantum is random.
becouse you dont konw it.

I dont mean that I know FX. but FX is not random & this game plays between banks. ( private or federal )

walker.
there is a whole literature out there that will disagree with you on that one.

the current understanding of the capital markets is that price acts like a random walk as securities/ assets, are priced in at the current level with all available information that market participants bring to bear....however there is a tendency to overshoot, or find itself out of equilibrium


those are market inefficiencies..... most speculators either

1 try to exploit any perceived innefficiencies in current the current value
2 anticipate future value

the market is mostly composed of random noise...therefore TA is not as effective or predictive as people around here HOPE IT TO BE.
AVT INVENIAM VIAM AVT FACIAM
  • #696,969
  • Sep 24, 2012 5:50pm Sep 24, 2012 5:50pm
the poss of first down is getting weaker & up is getting stronger.

price is consolidating by holding the level in time.

walker.
Quoting stevewalker
it will retract to ~1.2910 then long to ~1.2990

first down
then up

walker.
  • #696,970
  • Sep 24, 2012 5:51pm Sep 24, 2012 5:51pm
closed short trade with -2 pips.

flat.

walker.
Quoting stevewalker
the poss of first down is getting weaker & up is getting stronger.

price is consolidating by holding the level in time.

walker.
  • #696,971
  • Sep 24, 2012 5:54pm Sep 24, 2012 5:54pm
this deos not mean that price will go up.
comment made with regardless of new events & according to the past move.

walker.
Quoting stevewalker
the poss of first down is getting weaker & up is getting stronger.

price is consolidating by holding the level in time.

walker.
  • #696,972
  • Sep 24, 2012 5:56pm Sep 24, 2012 5:56pm
gold oil steel prices random.

you go with that idea.

there are many random number creating systems. use one & trade.

good luck!

walker.
Quoting the redlion
there is a whole literature out there that will disagree with you on that one.

the current understanding of the capital markets is that price acts like a random walk as securities/ assets, are priced in at the current level with all available information that market participants bring to bear....however there is a tendency to overshoot, or find itself out of equilibrium


those are market inefficiencies..... most speculators either

1 try to exploit any perceived innefficiencies in current the current value
2 anticipate future value

the...
  • #696,973
  • Sep 24, 2012 6:04pm Sep 24, 2012 6:04pm
Quoting chess king
imo .. in day trade ... movements are always random...!?
My full name is Random Walker, (my friends call me Randy) and I believe I can add something here.

You are right about the presence of a perceived random element in Forex trading; but, it differs greatly in size from trader to trader... this is one case where you would like to make it smaller. To do this I recommend that you:

1. do not waste your time studying quantum mechanics,
2. take a one hour dose of the FF eurusd thread every day, and
3. don't trade any amount of real money until you've made "it" really small.

I received similar advice from my one of my uncles as a small child. It has served me well.

Good luck!
  • #696,974
  • Sep 24, 2012 6:04pm Sep 24, 2012 6:04pm
Quoting stevewalker
gold oil steel prices random.

you go with that idea.

there are many random number creating systems. use one & trade.

good luck!

walker.
have you heard of correlation coefficient or Beta? the market is inter related but I bet you 20000 usd that you DO not and will never know or predict the market with exactitude.
AVT INVENIAM VIAM AVT FACIAM
  • #696,975
  • Sep 24, 2012 6:10pm Sep 24, 2012 6:10pm
Stop it with the random stuff.. Look at my motto: The market is kinda random.
  • #696,976
  • Sep 24, 2012 6:11pm Sep 24, 2012 6:11pm
I have read many things related with FX market in my 5 years of experience.

this is not our topic.

When Human can not calculate and/or understand, the short cut is, call it as random or from God.

everthing in the universe has a rule & role to play.

FX market is not random. not a single tick.

every tick is representing an action from a trader big or small.

but when/if we can not calculate it then, randomize/possibilities/combinations comes in to play to make it more understandable.

walker.

Quoting the redlion
have you heard of correlation coefficient or Beta? the market is inter related but I bet you 20000 usd that you DO not and will never know or predict the market with exactitude.
  • #696,977
  • Sep 24, 2012 6:13pm Sep 24, 2012 6:13pm
yes
better to stop.

I need some up move for my actual long trade.



walker.
Quoting attila
Stop it with the random stuff.. Look at my motto: The market is kinda random.
  • #696,978
  • Edited 6:31pm Sep 24, 2012 6:17pm | Edited 6:31pm
Quoting attila
Stop it with the random stuff.. Look at my motto: The market is kinda random.
Quoting the redlion
have you heard of correlation coefficient or Beta? the market is inter related but I bet you 20000 usd that you DO not and will never know or predict the market with exactitude.
Your both right. Geppy was quibbling with someone about whether forex is a coin toss this morning and it occurred to me that it really is good to keep in mind that the random element is always and will forever be present.

That way, when you take a trade you are mentally prepared to recognize mistakes... and that will keep you from doing the worst possible thing a trader can do: tolerating an excessive draw-down.

On the other hand, if you are too accepting of randomness, you will let yourself begin to gamble and you will lose money for sure.

You have to strike a balance.
  • #696,979
  • Sep 24, 2012 6:20pm Sep 24, 2012 6:20pm
Quoting NWSTrading
I have seen more traders on here today that say the Euro HAS to fall than ever before. Likely means we will shoot up to new highs. USD is on a daily downtrend since Late July, so that is the trend. QE should work to devalue the $ even more. Euro has been in a 7 day pullback, but that hardly denotes a complete reversal. Why all the sellers?
would you buy it here then?
  • #696,980
  • Sep 24, 2012 6:31pm Sep 24, 2012 6:31pm
Quoting RWalker
Your both right. Geppy was quibbling with someone about whether forex is a coin toss this morning and it occurred to me that it really is good to keep in mind that the random element is always and will forever be present.

That way, when you take a trade you are mentally prepared to recognize mistakes... and that will keep you from doing the worst possible thing a trader can do: tolerating an excessive draw-down.
tossing a coin with proper money management is a valid way to trade.
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