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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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EurAnalysis

  • #56,041
  • Sep 24, 2012 7:55am Sep 24, 2012 7:55am
Quoting Islander
I think you may need to pop a patience pill.....my read of the 5 min action is that some buyers have just stepped in......

The retrace over lunchtime - Europewise - was 50 % of the fall from Fridays high into a S&R zone - so a good place to sell again.

Now, the new low was in a smallish high volume spinning top - so I closed my latest shorts and will now wait for the NYSE open
Watching M15 not M5. Regardless, I do see a need to retest 1.2910/20 before more down.

My target for today is 2850
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #56,042
  • Sep 24, 2012 7:55am Sep 24, 2012 7:55am
Quoting rekon67
Weekly is convincing for bears, however Monthly is suggesting otherwise so lets go where the money flows.

I am still skeptic about this move without properly retesting 1.31 zone. So may be 1.2820 is a weekly possible bottom?
Not sure perhaps just go down there to pick up passenger. Wait another 30 mins the equities will lead the way.

BUT GBP/USD 1.6200 is broken now.
  • #56,043
  • Sep 24, 2012 7:58am Sep 24, 2012 7:58am
Quoting Ken A
Not sure perhaps just go down there to pick up passenger. Wait another 30 mins the equities will lead the way.
I see SP500 at 1425 before any more hopium buyers jump in. Currently at 1452.
Till then, more down IMO
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #56,044
  • Sep 24, 2012 8:00am Sep 24, 2012 8:00am
Lowest Hourly close so far today...? Naaay..Just two pips shay..
69
  • #56,045
  • Sep 24, 2012 8:01am Sep 24, 2012 8:01am
Quoting foto
C Man,
counter trend spikes is the only trade i will take to fade for the short term trade. So much CB support that distorts the market. But that is the only way for me, shorting the CB's.

I do know someone who trades US equities with 25 cent to 1 dollar profit targets where a trade can last from 5 minutes to maybe 1/2 hour. So it is possible. Mostly in Apple.

Was not suggesting that it was impossibly difficult, but not an easy thing to achieve.

Since am a fish out of water with the topic, other scalpers can pick up the discourse.
There are a few variances to be considered when positioning a short term trade. The first one – for me – is aligning my tolerance level with the associated risk versus reward. This is the bases I build my methodologies on that in turn also aligns my expectations over the longer term. Secondly have multilevel methodologies that operate independently in the shorter time frames yet tie into one another over the higher time periods. In my experience having only one methodology generally leads you to looking for opportunities that are not there because of boredom or frustration especially when the market moves without you.
Those that say do not know. Those that know do not say.
  • #56,046
  • Sep 24, 2012 8:09am Sep 24, 2012 8:09am
Quoting CurrencyMan
Step One: Determine the Weekly Trend. "The Trend Is Your Friend"

Step Two: Know the Support and Resistance on a 5 Minute Chart and a 15 Minute Chart.

Step Three: Know when there is prescheduled news releases like the German IFO.

Step Four: Understand Risk Off and Risk On.

Step Five: If shorting do it on Top of the Bollinger Band (15 Minute and 5 Minute chart)

Step Six: Have a Trade Plan knowing your Exit Point and ALWAYS set a Stop.

Scale in your shorts and never risk more than 5% of your capital on any Trade Plan.

Use MONEY FLOW...
Never used bullinger before. What do you recommend as setting for that so I can look at it?
  • #56,047
  • Sep 24, 2012 8:11am Sep 24, 2012 8:11am
Quoting lumesh
Market is flirting with 2885 stops that are being defended. But make no mistake that those are on top of agenda right now

OK - I'm just trading these 5 min swings, watching the retraces back into S&R areas / fibos. So far this bounce has retraced 38% of its fall and I'd like to see 50% - 61.8% into PTs 2910 to 20 zone....preferably around the NYSE open and then see the PA to confirm another sell.....TWT
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #56,048
  • Sep 24, 2012 8:11am Sep 24, 2012 8:11am
Quoting ohenry
There are a few variances to be considered when positioning a short term trade. The first one – for me – is aligning my tolerance level with the associated risk versus reward. This is the bases I build my methodologies on that in turn also aligns my expectations over the longer term. Secondly have multilevel methodologies that operate independently in the shorter time frames yet tie into one another over the higher time periods. In my experience having only one methodology generally leads you to looking for opportunities that are not there...
Sooooo true.
  • #56,049
  • Sep 24, 2012 8:13am Sep 24, 2012 8:13am
Quoting Islander
OK - I'm just trading these 5 min swings, watching the retraces back into S&R areas / fibos. So far this bounce has retraced 38% of its fall and I'd like to see 50% - 61.8% into PTs 2910 to 20 zone....preferably around the NYSE open and then see the PA to confirm another sell.....TWT

a true hard core tech trader
  • #56,050
  • Sep 24, 2012 8:20am Sep 24, 2012 8:20am
Quoting lumesh
a true hard core tech trader
When you work the M5 and M1 charts, you have to be hard core.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #56,051
  • Sep 24, 2012 8:28am Sep 24, 2012 8:28am
Quoting lumesh
a true hard core tech trader
Yep - a simple set of rules together with the disiclipine and patience to abide by them allow me to follow most of the moves during my chosen time periods. Also, knowing when its best NOT to trade - for the past half hour I've been reading away from my screens with my price alerts set...
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #56,052
  • Sep 24, 2012 8:33am Sep 24, 2012 8:33am
Japanese Cabinet shuffle.

Azumi no longer finance minister
Was promoted to deputy secretary general.
In other words, they don't think he can effectively weaken the Yen, but instead of tossing him out, they give him the #2 job (...and we all know that #2 is the polite word for....)
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #56,053
  • Sep 24, 2012 8:46am Sep 24, 2012 8:46am
Quoting TRMZXT
Never used bullinger before. What do you recommend as setting for that so I can look at it?
I use the following in my charts. On top I use Bollinger Bands (BB) and Parobolic Sar (SAR) with EMA and Fractionals.

Ask PipTrapper or one of our expert technicians here for the settings on BB. I just use the defaults.

On the bottom I use MACD and Awesome Indicator which is my volume indicator.

I also use RSI and I hope this information is useful for you.
  • #56,054
  • Sep 24, 2012 8:53am Sep 24, 2012 8:53am
Quoting PipTrapper
Watching M15 not M5. Regardless, I do see a need to retest 1.2910/20 before more down.

My target for today is 2850
2915 and down trend helped cap the price and formed lower high. Now we just have to break 2888

There is MacD bullish divergence everywhere though... just not enough bullish sentiment to drive it.

ADD: Looks like a rejection at 2900. Now a battle. Might break 2915 yet
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #56,055
  • Sep 24, 2012 9:04am Sep 24, 2012 9:04am
Quoting TRMZXT
Never used bullinger before. What do you recommend as setting for that so I can look at it?
I find Bollinger bands most useful in ranging markets and play the 2nd deviation on each end towards the mean.

In a trending market, it tends to let you know when the trend is exhausting and you can play the mean against the 1st deviation in the trend direction.

21 periods seem to work well for that both strategies.

For the best possible RR, buy or sell right at the line and set your stop about 10 pips on the other side.

In order to get both the 1st and 2nd deviation on the screen, you need to set up double Bollinger bands. Each one with 21 periods. One with a 1.0 deviation and the second one with a 2.0 deviation.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #56,056
  • Sep 24, 2012 9:04am Sep 24, 2012 9:04am
Looks like today is not the day. Other pairs bounce back AUD/USD and GPB/USD. USDX gains.
  • #56,057
  • Sep 24, 2012 9:09am Sep 24, 2012 9:09am
Quoting PipTrapper
2915 and down trend helped cap the price and formed lower high. Now we just have to break 2888

There is MacD bullish divergence everywhere though... just not enough bullish sentiment to drive it.

ADD: Looks like a rejection at 2900. Now a battle. Might break 2915 yet

Agreed, as I suggested, I sold the retrace and then got out for a couple of pips after the 2900 held in what we can now see are 5m & 15m dojis.

With no overlying move, its now too late in the European day for me to be comfortable with another entry, so I'll call it a day and go for a swim....BFN
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #56,058
  • Sep 24, 2012 9:12am Sep 24, 2012 9:12am
The bull is castrated folks.

The inverse H/S on the US 10 Year bonds has just broken the neckline.

US10Y H4
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Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #56,059
  • Sep 24, 2012 9:12am Sep 24, 2012 9:12am
Quoting ohenry
Looking for a lower move before the bounce back up
The 1st stage has now setup & I will wait for a lower move around 2860 to enter a long back up to the 2980 - 3000 level. Naturally 3 daunting outcomes may transpire 1) she leaves without me 2) the setup fizzles out 3) she crane kicks me in the nuts again...oh NFP flashbacks..
Or she can play nice & PAY ME!!! I do have strong polarity on the swissie in my favour so as always lets see...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Those that say do not know. Those that know do not say.
  • #56,060
  • Sep 24, 2012 9:14am Sep 24, 2012 9:14am
Quoting Islander
Agreed, as I suggested, I sold the retrace and then got out for a couple of pips after the 2900 held in what we can now see are 5m & 15m dojis.

With no overlying move, its now too late in the European day for me to be comfortable with another entry, so I'll call it a day and go for a swim....BFN
Great idea. Enjoy the views

http://pairody.com/images/2010/10/he...ca-adds-10.jpg
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
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